White House Takes a Bleak View of Gulf : Outlook: Senior officials fear that Iraqi leader will ‘lash out’ in surprise military strike.

White House officials have adopted a bleak appraisal of what lies ahead in the 16-day-old confrontation with Iraq, despite remarkable international support for U.S. policy in the Persian Gulf and the successful deployment of about 50,000 American troops in Saudi Arabia.

Most immediately, senior officials fear that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein will “lash out” in a surprise military strike as the economic noose tightens and the U.S. arms buildup, already the speediest major U.S. military mobilization since World War II, gains strength by the hour.

Even if such an attack is avoided, the Administration foresees a long, politically draining conflict--with no quick and easy way to bring the troops home. Such a war of economic and diplomatic attrition--while less dangerous than armed combat--would nonetheless impose heavy burdens on the United States even if it slowly tipped the balance in the Administration’s favor.

Thus, despite its success in lining up international support for the economic and military embargo the White House hopes will eventually break Hussein’s grip on Kuwait--and despite the successful deployment of military manpower, materiel and air cover in Saudi Arabia considered sufficient to blunt an Iraqi invasion--the view of the situation within the Administration as the crisis enters its third week is decidedly grim.

The new concern about an Iraqi assault, Administration officials say, is based in part on the fact that Saddam Hussein is increasing his military buildup along the Kuwaiti border with Saudi Arabia--to 160,000 troops, according to some estimates, far more than necessary to defend the occupied territory.

The bleakness of prospects for an early solution to the crisis is increased, Administration officials acknowledge, by their determination not even to consider negotiations with the Iraqi leader until he withdraws his troops from Kuwait.

In the view of the White House, such a withdrawal might open the door to discussion of Iraqi grievances over the price of oil, its disputed borders with Kuwait and similar issues.

But officials repeatedly echo Bush’s view that talking with Iraq at this point would be the equivalent of negotiating with Hitler after German troops took over Czechoslovakia in 1938 in a prelude to World War II.

Moreover, the Administration sees little immediate chance that Hussein will pull back--despite his reputation for suddenly reversing positions--because doing so could engender such opposition among Iraqi military leaders that it would threaten his grip on power.

Thus, one scenario being looked at by the Administration has the military build-up continuing--in an unrelenting effort to deter an Iraqi move against Saudi Arabia from its reinforced positions in Kuwait--and the undeclared blockade at sea putting ever-increasing pressure on Iraq by cutting off crucial imports.

It is this pressure, rather than military operations, the Administration says, that will lead to the “liberation” of Kuwait.

The Administration has taken heart from the support shown throughout the Arab world for its position--support, it is felt, that stems from a direct and personal sense of affront felt by such key Arab leaders as President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and others after what they view as a betrayal by Saddam Hussein when he invaded Kuwait despite personal pledges to the contrary.

Some officials are also buoyed by the fact that, while concern continues to exist over how tightly Jordan will enforce the U.N.-mandated embargo, as of now the flow of goods moving to Iraq through the Jordanian port of Aqaba has slowed to a trickle.

In the Administration view, however, it is anybody’s guess as to how long it will take before such pressure produces movement by Iraq, with the most optimistic estimates weighing in at less than two weeks--a decidedly upbeat assessment that is not shared by many--to others who predict there can be no break until October at the earliest.

While Iraq is said to depend on imports for 70% to 75% of its food supply, it grows some of its own fruit and produce, and some experts say it has stockpiles of grain and other foods to last three or four months.

While officials don’t believe that the embargo, no matter how successful, is likely to place Iraqis in danger of starvation, it is hoped within the Administration that it will produce fairly grim conditions quickly.

But given Hussein’s history--much cited by Administration officials--of using poison gas against his own citizenry, and his willingness to prosecute the war with Iran over eight years at the cost of untold numbers of civilians as well as soldiers, there is little expectation within the Administration that the Iraqi president will be easily swayed by the suffering of his people or ready to retreat any time soon.