THE TIMES POLL : Feinstein Loses Gender Edge Over Wilson

Democrat Dianne Feinstein no longer is getting “the women’s vote” as she and Republican Sen. Pete Wilson head into the fall election campaign running dead even in their muddy race for governor, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

The candidates’ standings have shifted little during the summer, according to Times Poll interviews, but the complexion of the race has changed dramatically: Feinstein has lost her once-substantial edge among women and Wilson no longer has an advantage among men.

Apparently, the excitement of Feinstein’s candidacy for women--especially women in the San Francisco Bay Area--has cooled significantly, the survey indicated. Meanwhile, she has improved her standing slightly among men, particularly in Southern California. The result is that both women and men are dividing their votes about equally between the two candidates.

For voters, the defining difference between Feinstein and Wilson at present is not gender or any specific issue, but simply the candidates’ party membership, the poll showed.

The statewide survey of registered voters found Feinstein and Wilson tied with 39% apiece. “Others candidates” were preferred by 2%, and 20% of those surveyed were undecided.

Given a margin of error of 3 percentage points in either direction, these standings represent no significant change from a similar Times Poll survey in mid-June, which showed Feinstein at 40% and Wilson at 37%.

In June, however, Feinstein had a 12-point lead among women and trailed by 9 points among men. In the latest survey, she is up by only 1 point among women and down by 2 points among men--in each case a statistical tie.

“The thrill is gone,” observed Times political analyst William Schneider. “In June, when Dianne Feinstein became the first woman ever to be nominated for governor in California, there was a real sense of excitement about her among women. In order to win in November, she’s going to have to get that back.”

Schneider added, “Her primary election victory also may have exaggerated the gender gap between men and women voters. Now, it looks like things are returning to normal.”

The Times Poll conducted telephone interviews with 1,586 registered voters over six days ending Wednesday night. The survey was supervised by Susan Pinkus, assistant Times Poll director.

The poll’s results seemed to reflect the mudslinging of each side in recent weeks, as the candidates pummeled each other with negative television commercials and harsh rhetoric. The sniping and bickering took its toll. The voters’ impressions of both candidates dropped during the summer, and Feinstein’s popularity particularly suffered.

The voters’ impression of Feinstein dropped significantly, from 66% favorable and 23% unfavorable in June to 54% favorable and 35% unfavorable in the latest survey. The electorate’s impression of Wilson fell somewhat less, from 60%-25% to 56%-3l%.

However, party loyalty is strong. Democratic voters back Feinstein by nearly 3 to 1; Republicans support Wilson by nearly 5 to 1. Independents side with Feinstein by 3 to 2.

Democratic women back Feinstein by nearly 5 to 2, and Republican women support Wilson by almost 5 to 1.

When interviewers asked voters to name “the single most important quality” that drew them to their candidate, the predominant answer was not a personal trait, but political philosophy--clear evidence that party labels are helping people define the nominees.

On primary election day, Times Poll interviews with voters as they left the ballot booths showed that the overriding factor in Feinstein’s historic victory was that many Democrats decided “it’s time we had a woman governor.” Later in June, with Republicans inserted into the electoral mix, the voters as a whole disagreed with that statement by 4 to 3. They still do, by roughly the same ratio, according to the latest survey.

Voters also oppose, by 5 to 4, the notion that “California’s governor ought to see to it that the number of women and minorities appointed to state government jobs is in proportion to their share of the population”--as Feinstein has pledged to do. This is the so-called quota issue, one that Wilson has tried to hang around Feinstein’s neck. So far, the effect seems to have been minor. Voters are about evenly divided over which candidate they think “would make the best appointments to public office.”

Abortion remains a potent issue for Feinstein, as it was throughout her Democratic primary campaign against Atty. Gen. John K. Van de Kamp. Although Feinstein and Wilson have similar positions on abortion--they both support a woman’s right to decide for herself whether to have one--voters believe by nearly 5 to 2 that Feinstein “would do the best job of handling the issue.”

Eight in 10 California voters think a woman should have the right to choose whether to have an abortion without government interference, according to the survey. Abortion ranks second--just behind the environment--on the voters’ list of “important issues” they are using to measure the gubernatorial candidates.

Voters who regard the environment as a decisive issue are leaning slightly toward Feinstein, interviews showed.

The No. 3 issue on the voters’ list is crime, and this works best for Wilson. Although Feinstein and Wilson strongly support the death penalty, voters think by nearly 2 to 1 that the Republican candidate would do a better job of fighting crime.

Government ethics is the No. 4-rated issue and Feinstein currently has a slight edge there. Wilson tends to be seen by voters as being “more closely tied to the special interests.”

These perceived special-interest ties could become stronger in the voters’ minds if Feinstein should ever score with her attacks on Wilson for accepting $243,334 from the savings and loan industry during his two Senate campaigns. Feinstein has been hitting hard on the issue, but with apparently little effect.

Three-fourths of the voters said they do not know of “any candidate running for office in California this year who has received large contributions from the savings and loan industry.” Only one in 10 cited Wilson. But six in 10 voters said that if there were such a candidate, they would be less likely to support the person. Voters who feel this way now are split about equally between Feinstein and Wilson.

A good issue for Wilson could be the economy, particularly if it gets worse. By 2 to 1, he is seen as the candidate who “would do the best job of managing the state’s economy and financial affairs.”

Also, Feinstein continues to be haunted by her final year as San Francisco mayor, when she left the city with a projected deficit of $180 million. Roughly a third of the voters say they are “less likely” to support her because of that.

Likewise, Wilson is seen as the candidate who would “do the best job on taxes.” The latest survey shows that the voters’ willingness to pay higher taxes has dropped somewhat over the summer--a period when President Bush for the first time signaled his willingness to hike taxes, Californians began paying a higher gasoline tax, and Sacramento raised some taxes and fees to balance the state budget.

In June, roughly three-fourths of the voters said they would be willing to kick in with higher taxes for a specific purpose. That percentage now is down to two-thirds.

VOTER PREFERENCES

Following are results from a Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,586 registered voters, as compared to responses from a poll in late June: If the election were held today, whom would you vote for?

RACE AND CANDIDATE LATE JUNE NOW Governor Dianne Feinstein 40% 39% Pete Wilson 37% 39% Someone else 2% 2% No opinion 21% 20% Lieutenant Governor Leo McCarthy 36% 35% Marian Bergeson 20% 17% Someone else -- 1% No opinion 44% 47% Secretary of State March Fong Eu 45% 48% Joan Milke Flores 16% 13% Someone else -- 1% No opinion 39% 38% Controller Gray Davis 43% 44% Matt Fong 16% 15% Someone else -- -- No opinion 41% 41% Treasurer Kathleen Brown 26% 23% Thomas Hayes 24% 24% Someone else 1% 1% No opinion 49% 52% Attorney General Arlo Smith 26% 25% Daniel Lungren 24% 25% Someone else 1% -- No opinion 49% 50% Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi 32% 33% Wes Bannister 17% 16% Someone else 1% 1% No opinion 50% 50%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

FEINSTEIN VS. WILSON

Following are results from a Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,586 registered voters: Which candidate is best on:

ISSUE DIANNE FEINSTEIN PETE WILSON Qualities of leadership 34% 41% Abortion 46% 20% Education 40% 29% Crime 24% 44% Taxes 25% 41% Special interest ties 25% 35% Best appointments 35% 36% Managing state economy and financial affairs 25% 49%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll