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Autumn Looms as Crisis Season for Bush : Presidency: He faces several pressing domestic issues as well as the crisis in the Persian Gulf. And he must find time for political campaigning.

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TIMES STAFF WRITER

From the terrace of George Bush’s seaside home here, sparkling waves stretch out to small islands populated by seals and mewing gulls. At night, the hoot of a distant foghorn and the low crash of the surf break the stillness of the dark. On the wall of his house, a small plaque records part of a speech the President once made: “Maine,” he said, “its rocky coast gives me strength.”

He may need it.

For most of the first 18 months of his presidency, Bush moved smoothly from success to success, but as he returns today to Washington from an only somewhat restful Maine vacation, the easy days seem over, the continuing crisis in the Middle East only one of a host of intractable problems.

Over the next several weeks, Bush may be called upon to make the most difficult decisions that face any President: whether to send American troops into combat and to risk the lives of innocent civilians held hostage overseas.

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But even as he struggles over those possibilities, the President faces a series of domestic issues:

Business groups are pushing him to veto the new Clean Air Act now that Congress seems likely to pass a bill more sweeping than the one the White House first proposed.

An existing veto threat over a major civil rights bill already confronts Bush with a potential painful confrontation with Democrats and the civil rights Establishment.

The hearings on his Supreme Court nominee David H. Souter are likely to focus additional attention on the abortion issue, a matter that White House and Republican strategists have been hoping to play down.

And, late this week, budget negotiators for the Administration and the Democrats will begin huddling together at Andrews Air Force Base trying to cut a deal, even as the economy seems headed into a recession.

Each of those issues will complicate what the White House originally had perceived as the top priority for the fall, an election campaign that is crucial to Republican hopes of overcoming Democratic control of Congress.

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“September and October are very important months,” one senior White House aide said recently. “We’re hoping to give our candidates a real boost.”

For now, the Iraq crisis may prove to be an advantage to Bush. He has received widespread public support. But, as even presidential Press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater conceded, it is not clear how much that approval for Bush’s foreign policy will spill over into support for his domestic efforts.

And while Administration officials are pleased--even a little surprised--at how little criticism they have received over the massive troop buildup in the Middle East, they say they are aware that the national mood could turn sour if the standoff stalemates, or if events turn against the United States.

Bush had hoped to rest up for the fall during his 25-day vacation here. But the crisis in the Middle East disrupted those plans, turning his vacation into a source of controversy and criticism. For the first two weeks here fatigue showed clearly in the President’s face. Aides called him “grumpy” and said he seemed to be going through the motions of “recreating,” as he calls it, more than actually enjoying himself.

In the last few days, Bush has seemed more relaxed. But even so, officials say, he remains thin-skinned, scanning the morning summary of newspaper and television news reports looking for stories that criticize his vacation.

Some of the reason for needing that rest can be seen in Bush’s schedule. Months ago, when travel plans for the fall were mapped out, Bush agreed to spend roughly half of the next two months campaigning for Republican candidates. He has become, by far, his party’s most prolific fund-raiser, attracting millions of dollars already this year at everything from $250-a-plate breakfasts in Maine to a lunch in the Bel-Air mansion of Castle Entertainment chief David Murdock that cost up to $25,000 per person.

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Now, however, White House aides must scramble to fit those travel plans in around other, more pressing, commitments.

And so, Thursday, Bush will zigzag the country from Topeka, Kan., to Tallahassee, Fla., for political speeches. He will return to Washington on Friday for a day of briefings, head out Saturday for Sunday’s meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev in Helsinki, Finland, after which he will return to Washington on Monday only to head to Colorado and California for more politicking Tuesday and Wednesday.

A proposed trip to Latin America already has been postponed, probably to November, because it conflicted with budget negotiations.

Unfortunately for Bush, many of his priorities for this fall conflict as much as his travel plans do.

Republicans had hoped to gain control of the Senate this fall--a dream that now appears to have faded in part because the Iraqi crisis may be weakening the anti-incumbent mood that GOP strategists had hoped would aid them.

Bush’s party still is pressing to win enough key governorships to give them a strong hand when the states redraw congressional district lines after this year’s census.

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Many party strategists had hoped Bush would boost them by adopting a sharply partisan campaign tone this fall, lashing out at Democrats for failing to deal with the budget deficit, for failing to support a constitutional amendment to ban flag burning or for giving him insufficient support on anti-crime measures.

The Iraqi standoff may prevent that. Even as the crisis rallies support for Bush, it also limits what he can do, politically, on other issues, White House aides concede.

“We’re going to have to walk a line,” one senior aide said. “We can certainly have areas of disagreement without having those areas overflow into an area that requires national unity.”

On the other hand, he conceded, too partisan a tone from the President could backfire on the White House, as it appeared to do in mid-August when Bush attacked Democrats over the budget during the midst of the military buildup in Saudi Arabia. Bush was roundly criticized for being too partisan at the time and rapidly retreated to a more neutral “presidential” stance.

The question of just how political Bush can appear has divided his advisers. White House Chief of Staff John H. Sununu has advocated a particularly aggressive approach, maintaining that the Iraq situation does not mean the President should give up his right to fight Democrats on issues such as the budget.

But Budget Director Richard G. Darman has argued, on at least one occasion, that a rough and tumble approach would now be counterproductive, and other White House aides have advocated the same position.

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Other political observers outside the Administration have taken a similar position. “At a time like this, you want to put aside partisan concerns,” said one former senior White House official. If Bush makes partisan attacks on domestic issues at the same time he appeals for unity on foreign policy, “it seems disjointed,” the former official said.

Not surprisingly, given what he faces in Washington, Bush already has made plans to add one more trip to his fall schedule--back to Maine for a few days in October. As the plaque on his wall reads: “Here, I feel at peace.”

Lauter reported from Kennebunkport and Gerstenzang from Washington.

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