Sanctions Seen Failing to Gain U.S. Gulf Goals : Strategy: Analysts fear time will work for Iraq. A deadline for launching military action is urged.

Government analysts have told President Bush that economic and political sanctions alone will not achieve his goals in the Persian Gulf crisis, and he is under mounting pressure to wait no more than four to six weeks before using military force against Iraq.

Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies, convinced that sanctions ultimately will not work and fearing that time will begin working in Iraq’s favor, are pressing the Bush Administration to launch a military attack by mid-October to drive Saddam Hussein’s troops out of Kuwait and cripple his vast military machine, according to U.S. sources.

However, Bush himself has not shown publicly any sign that he is concerned that the sanctions are not working. In fact, on Tuesday he told Congress that Iraq “is feeling the heat,” although he made clear the United States will take military action if necessary.

Government analysts agreed that sanctions are squeezing Hussein at the moment and will hurt him for some time to come. But ultimately, they said, sanctions alone “will not topple him.”

Saudi sources suggested Thursday that if sanctions show no signs of working within four weeks, the United States and its allies with troops stationed in Saudi Arabia would consider resorting to a military option.

Already the allies are debating whether to supplement their naval blockade with an air blockade of flights carrying supplies to Iraq and Iraqi-occupied Kuwait, the sources said. An air blockade, which the sources acknowledged would be potentially “very dangerous,” could turn into a flash point for military hostilities.

A senior U.S. government official denied that there is any “timetable” for determining whether to resort to military force. He said a decision on that matter could come earlier or later than mid-October, depending upon the circumstances and whether Iraq has taken any provocative actions.

“There are things that could prove to be provocative before that time,” said the official, who stressed that the rapprochement between Iraq and Iran has caused serious concern among Persian Gulf strategists. “I would keep my eye on Iraq and Iran,” he added.

Another senior government official confirmed that the United States will consider a military option if it concludes the sanctions are not working but denied that there is any deadline or “magical date at the moment” for making that determination. He said a decision to abandon the sanctions or to stick with them for a longer period could come earlier or later than four to six weeks.

“We’re constantly evaluating, and right now the sanctions are working,” this official said. “If there was a situation where certain countries would announce they are not going to adhere to the sanctions and the sanctions are seen as not working, then we’d look at the options. No one wants to stick to sanctions unless we have confidence they’re doing the trick.”

Regardless of whether a deadline has been set, the Saudis as well as some U.S. analysts believe time will work against the United States and its allies and in favor of Hussein. The longer the military standoff continues, they argue, the greater the chance that the fragile coalition of Western and Arab allies aligned against Hussein will begin to come apart.

In fact, one high-level Saudi official predicted Thursday that some countries in the coalition will drop out as soon as any hostilities begin. He expressed the hope that the coalition could hold together at least until then.

“Our objective is to keep everybody, or as many people as possible, with us until D-Day minus two hours, probably, or two minutes,” the official said. “We really would like to see this solved peacefully,” he added. “But at the same time, even if we have intentions to go for military action, we must pursue all peaceful venues” in order to “maintain the unity.”

In Saudi Arabia, Lt. Gen. Jimmy Adams, the Air Force deputy chief of staff for operations, suggested that Hussein could withstand the sanctions longer than the allied coalition could survive.

“We can cause a lot of damage, but he can take a lot of pain,” Adams said. “How long can we keep this fragile coalition together? He can survive an embargo for four or five months. Can we keep our unity that long?”

The Saudi official said if an ultimate decision is made to launch a military strike against Iraq and Iraqi forces in Kuwait, the attack would be “fast and massive.”

“But I can assure you,” he added, “there are a lot of brains being wracked now to do it right, proper, legal and convincingly after exhausting other options.”

U.S. Air Force officials in Saudi Arabia confirmed that within four weeks they will have enough forces in place to carry out a massive assault.

The U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf already exceeds 145,000, including soldiers, Marines and Air Force personnel based on land and sailors and Marines in the gulf. There are three aircraft carriers in the gulf region and six wings of combat aircraft, made up of more than 400 planes, from Stealth fighters to B-52 bombers.

Air Force commanders clearly are preparing for possible early combat action, and they have told reporters it would be advantageous to see action sooner rather than later if there is to be a war.

“We’re very close to being prepared to carry out a wide range of offensive missions,” said Lt. Gen. Henry Viccellio Jr., the Air Force deputy chief of staff. “Our forces and people will be in place by the end of September. Then we’ll be in a posture to do whatever we’re asked to do.”

Talking to U.S. flight crews at the Riyadh Air Base, Gen. Michael J. Dugan, Air Force chief of staff, said, “When the time comes, do it right and it’ll be a short tour.”

For now, with diplomacy still the order of the day, the Administration and its allies are encouraging as many emissaries as possible to go to Baghdad to try their hand at finding a peaceful way to end the crisis, officials say. In part, they note, the invitations are designed to ensure that if a military move comes, no country will be in a position to say that it could have averted a crisis if only it had been asked.

So far, officials note, the diplomatic moves have been unavailing. Jordan’s King Hussein, for example, was firmly rebuffed by Saddam Hussein during a recent trip to Baghdad. The Iraqi leader flatly said he would not withdraw from Kuwait, according to diplomatic sources.

The Jordanian monarch is “depressed” as a result of the trip and has been uncharacteristically silent since returning to Amman, one source said.

At least some senior Administration officials continue to say that they believe the sanctions can prevail and that a military move against Hussein would be too dangerous and too unpredictable in its outcome for the United States to deliberately follow that path.

But Bush also has been receiving the opposite advice from Arab leaders, from Israel and from at least some of his own advisers, who present three basic arguments in favor of using force.

The first argument is that sanctions ultimately will not be able to force Iraq out of Kuwait.

“No one knows with precision how far down you can drive subsistence” in a society that is being placed on a war footing, said one senior U.S. analyst. Hussein may be able to exploit “all kinds of little leaks” in the sanctions and force his people to accept a lower standard of living long enough to outlast U.S. patience, the analyst said.

The second argument is that over time, the U.S. position in the gulf will become far more difficult to sustain. Further, as the stay of American troops lengthens, frictions with the far different Saudi society are bound to increase.

For now, the Saudi source said, there is little sign that such frictions have become a problem.

“Ninety percent (of the troops) are nowhere near” Saudi population centers, he said. But if the American military were to remain in the kingdom beyond the beginning of the New Year, at that point “time definitely is against us,” the official said.

A final argument is that even if Hussein ultimately were to withdraw peacefully from Kuwait, he would remain too much of a threat to the security of the region to be allowed to remain in power.

“Saddam Hussein with all his force intact and chemical capability and nuclear potential intact is the most menacing thing that could happen in the Middle East,” the Saudi source said.

If Hussein were to withdraw peacefully from Kuwait, those who would like to see Iraqi military power eliminated would face political difficulty in staging military action.

But, he noted, Hussein has shown no signs of being that flexible, adding, “I just have not seen anything yet that convinces me that Saddam is willing or ready to extract himself and put us in a position to face that question.

“We have an obligation to ourselves, to our people, to go the peaceful route as much as we can, until everybody is convinced that this is not an option,” the source added. “But then if military action has to be taken, this will be, or ought to be and could be, a short war.”

Staff writers David Lauter and John M. Broder contributed to this report.

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