Favorites, Long Shots Sparkle Together
“Sparkles” doesn’t go often to the Southland’s race tracks, but when she does, she likes to hit on the long shots.
For example, on Aug. 25 at Del Mar, Sparkles was in the Club House during the eighth race when one of her horses, Notorious Pleasure, took the lead at the quarter pole of a 1 1/8-mile route for 3-year-olds and up. Her other horse, Miserden, raced up to second behind Notorious Pleasure and poked his head in front entering the stretch. At the finish, Miserden was first by half a length over Notorious Pleasure, who held on for second.
As the betting turned out, Notorious Pleasure was the lukewarm favorite at $3.10 to $1, and Miserden was the highest-priced horse on the Totalizator board at 33-1. Although Sparkles lost on Notorious Pleasure, she won $68 on Miserden. After deducting the $4 she had bet, she showed a profit of $64.
Sparkles is a tall, middle-aged blonde who dresses all in white and who always wears an overabundance of costume jewelry--necklaces, pins, bracelets and rings. Her friends nicknamed her Sparkles because of her apparent glow or aura, which can be seen even when she walks around in the crowded parts of the race track, making her bets, talking to friends and buying refreshments.
What Sparkles has developed for her race track wagering, whenever she can take off from her job as a real estate agent in the San Fernando Valley, is a system that is part conservative and part daring. She bets $4 a race--$2 to win on the favorite, whose odds are at least even money or higher, and $2 to win on the biggest long shot on the board.
Sparkles believes that betting the favorite, in addition to the long shot, will at least control her losses until one of her long shots wins. And if enough favorites win, then she can eke out a small profit just on them without having to worry about her losses when the long shots finish far out of the money.
Sparkles, however, doesn’t always bet the favorite. When the favorite is less than even money, she only wagers on the highest-priced long shot in the field. She reasons that a favorite less than even money would pay such a low price that it wouldn’t give her the opportunity to break even on the race--and, in fact, would positively give her a loss. It doesn’t make sense to bet on such a favorite.
On the day Miserden won, Sparkles earned $2.60 on the first race, as the favorite, Gibson’s Choice, won easily at a mile. Her long shot, Double Dollar Donn, 19-1, finished last among seven horses in the race for 3-year-olds and up. Gibson’s Choice, however, paid $6.60.
In the second race, a six-furlong sprint for maidens, Sparkles again won on the favorite. Dancing Bolde held on to win by half a length and paid $6. The long shot in the race, Cosmocrat, 72-1, finished eighth. After deducting the $4 wagered, Sparkles added the $2 profit to the $2.60 of the first race and found she was ahead $4.60.
She won yet again on the favorite in the third race, another six-furlong sprint, this time for fillies and mares. Her horse, Letters of Love, ran second until the middle of the stretch, where she made a move to win by three-quarters of a length. The long shot in the race, Yia Yia, a first-time starter at the track, finished next to last at 66-1. Letters of Love paid $5.80 to win, and Sparkles was ahead $6.40.
In the fourth race, a mile for 3-year-olds and up, the favorite, Simply Fabulous, won by a length and returned $4.40, giving Sparkles only a 40-cent profit and total winnings of $6.80. Her long shot, Danielli, 30-1, finished sixth in the eight-horse field.
Although Sparkles lost the next three races and found herself $5.20 in the hole by the eighth race, her win on Miserden turned the day around. Ahead $58.80 after her big win, she bet another $4 on the ninth race. Her favorite ran second and her long shot was last in a seven-horse field. For the day, however, Sparkles ended up with a $54.80 profit.
Her system turned in one of its most profitable days on June 13 at Hollywood Park. Sparkles was losing $12 by the fourth race as the favorites and long shots all lost. But in the fourth race, a 5 1/2-furlong sprint for 2-year-olds, the favorite was El Bashek, who went off $2.40 to $1. The highest priced nag in the 11-horse field turned out to be My Man Tarzen, who was 45-1.
El Bashek took the lead at the quarter pole and managed to hang on in first until the stretch, where he faded to fourth. My Man Tarzen made a bold move once in the stretch, went to the front and easily won by two lengths, returning $92.90 to system players. Sparkles deducted the $4 bet and the $12 she was losing and found she was ahead $76.20.
Sparkles then lost the next three races and watched as her profit dipped to $64.20. But, in the eighth race, a 1 1/16-mile route for 3-year-olds and up, Sparkles made up her lost ground. She bet $2 on the favorite, Le Voyageur, and $2 on Monfarid, the 35-1 long shot in the race.
Le Voyageur ran a steady race to finish third. Monfarid took the lead after the start and opened up two lengths in the stretch. Tiring near the finish, Monfarid held on to win by a neck and paid backers $73. Sparkles won $69 on the race, and with her previous $64.20 in winnings, was ahead $133.20.
Betting $4 on the ninth race, Sparkles picked up another 80 cents when Belle Poitrine won and paid $4.80 as the favorite.
For the day, Sparkles left the track earning a tidy $134.
What Sparkles likes about the system is that she can lose only $36 for the day, providing that all of her horses lose. But she figures that as long as the favorites win 28% to 33% of the time, as they do year in and year out, her winnings from these nags will cut her losses. And when a long shot does manage to win, the high payoff easily will make up for her slim losses and present her with a huge profit.