THE TIMES POLL : Feinstein, Wilson Remain Even in Governor’s Race

Sen. Pete Wilson and Dianne Feinstein both have found code words for tapping into the potent anti-incumbency vote, but neither has discovered a formula for seizing the lead in their gubernatorial race, according to the Los Angeles Times Poll.

Wilson’s new code word is “Proposition 140,” or “term limits” for elected state officials. Feinstein’s is “absenteeism”--the senator’s missed votes in Washington while working the voters in California.

Both candidates chalked up points in their recent televised debate by attacking each other on these themes, The Times survey found. They bandied the code words to signal voters that their opponents are linked to arrogant and irresponsible incumbency--Wilson allegedly because he was falling down on his job in Washington and Feinstein because she is allied with the legislative old guard fighting term limits.

“Both candidates have been jockeying for position on the anti-incumbency issue and each has scored,” Times political analyst William Schneider said. “Score Wilson one, Feinstein one and the race is even.”

With only about three weeks remaining before the Nov. 6 election, the Times poll again found the candidates to be running virtually even: Wilson 42% and Feinstein 41%. The one-point difference is statistically insignificant, given the margin of error. Sixteen percent of those surveyed still were undecided--nearly two-thirds of them women--and 1% said they would vote for “some other candidate.”

The standings are practically the same as a month ago--and a month before that--according to Times surveys. Since late September, Wilson has moved up three points and Feinstein has stayed the same, based on Times measurements. But these statistical nuances are insignificant because of the margin of error.

In the latest survey, 2,154 registered voters were interviewed by telephone over four days ending Tuesday night. The phone numbers called were randomly selected to represent a cross-section of the California electorate. The margin of error is 3 percentage points in either direction. Susan Pinkus, assistant Times Poll director, supervised the survey.

By contrast, the California Poll, directed by Mervin D. Field, recently found that 47% of registered voters interviewed were for Wilson and 42% for Feinstein. That survey was taken roughly a week before The Times’ and involved roughly half as many interviews.

The “gender gap,” which has disappeared and then resurfaced in this campaign, again was a factor in the latest Times survey. But the gap now appears to benefit Wilson more than Feinstein because men are supporting him more than women are backing her. Men voters favor Wilson by a margin of 10 points; women side with Feinstein by only 7.

Democratic women are loyally supporting Feinstein by nearly 4 to 1. But Republican women are sticking with their party’s candidate, Wilson, by more than 3 to 1, the survey showed. Democratic men are supporting Feinstein by almost 3 to 1 and GOP men are backing Wilson by 5 to 1.

The survey found voters disagreeing, by 4 to 3, with the statement that “it is time we had a woman governor.” Men object to this notion by nearly 2 to 1 and women are almost evenly divided, interviews showed. All year, Feinstein has been urging Californians to make history by electing the state’s first woman governor.

Another significant gap is based on marital status. Married people are supporting Wilson by a margin of 10 points while single voters are siding with Feinstein by 10. The root cause can be seen in the survey’s finding that married voters tend to be more conservative and more Republican than the electorate as a whole. Single people, on the other hand, are more liberal and more Democratic.

The biggest variable in either gap--gender or marital--is earning a paycheck, the survey showed. There is a huge gender gap among working people and hardly any among those who are unemployed. And the widest gap is between married working men, who support Wilson by 25 points, and single working women, who back Feinstein by 16.

Analysis of the poll by race and ethnicity shows blacks supporting the Democratic candidate, as they traditionally do, by a whopping margin--57 points. But Asians and Anglos are leaning toward Wilson.

Latinos, who historically have sided with Democrats, are virtually evenly split between the candidates. There is a big gender gap here. Latino men support Wilson by a 9-point margin and Latino women support Feinstein by 19.

Feinstein also has strong support among Jews, who back her by a 46-point margin.

Wilson, a former San Diego mayor, has 2-1 leads in Orange County and San Diego County. He is ahead by roughly 4 to 3 in the remainder of Southern California outside of Los Angeles County. And he leads by 5 to 4 in the Central Valley farm belt, where growers are upset with Feinstein for endorsing Proposition 128, the sweeping environmental initiative its backers call “Big Green.”

Feinstein’s geographical strength comes from her home San Francisco Bay Area, where the former mayor leads by almost 2 to 1. She also has a slight edge in Los Angeles County.

The Times poll found that the candidates’ Oct. 7 debate, carried by 32 television stations around the state, was seen by nearly one-fourth of California’s registered voters. Democrats and Republicans, men and women, watched it about equally, interviews showed. Counting other voters who did not actually see the debate, but later read or saw news reports of it, about half the electorate had some knowledge of the event.

People who viewed the debate had much stronger opinions about it than those who merely learned of it from news reports, interviews showed. This tends to puncture conventional wisdom that the real impact of political debates is determined by the news coverage.

Wilson’s big moment in the debate came when he unexpectedly endorsed Proposition 140, the tough term-limit initiative sponsored by Los Angeles County Supervisor Pete Schabarum. By doing so, the career politician--who has held elective offices for 24 years--hoped to position himself as a Sacramento “outsider.” He charged that Feinstein opposes term limits because she is “beholden” to Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, another San Francisco Democrat and a political ally. Feinstein has said that she opposes term limits because they would weaken the Legislature.

Wilson’s position on term limits clearly helps him and Feinstein’s hurts her, the survey showed. When voters were asked whether Wilson’s endorsement of Proposition 140 made them “more likely” or “less likely” to support him, three times as many said “more likely.” Conversely, there were nearly three times as many voters who said they were less likely to support Feinstein because of her opposition as there were people more likely to back her.

Feinstein struck her biggest blow during the debate by pounding Wilson on being absent from Washington, declaring that he has the third-worst attendance record in the Senate. She kept up the attack for days afterward, denouncing the senator for missing key end-of-session votes as Congress stumbled and agonized trying to pass a budget. Wilson answered that he would return to Congress when there was something serious on which to vote. But finally reeling from the criticism, he broke off campaigning and flew to Washington on Monday night.

The strategy clearly has worked for Feinstein, the poll showed. Voters agreed by 3 to 2 with the statement, “Pete Wilson has been missing too many votes in the Senate and should be spending more time in Washington rather than spending his time campaigning for governor in California.” Even a third of Wilson’s supporters agreed and another sixth were not sure.

Voters who saw or later read about the debate had a tough time picking a winner. They were inclined to give Feinstein the edge, thinking she was the more convincing on the issues and easily the more likeable. But they thought Wilson looked more like a governor and each was equally knowledgeable.

Feinstein appears to have driven home her main message--that she represents change. Voters agree by nearly 5 to 1 with the thesis that she, rather than Wilson, “is the candidate of change.”

VOTER PREFERENCES

Following are results from a Los Angeles Times Poll of 2,154 registered voters. Responses in the first segment are compared to responses from previous polls. If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for:

CANDIDATE NOW 9/90 8/90 6/90 5/90 Dianne Feinstein 41% 41% 39% 40% 36% Pete Wilson 42% 39% 39% 37% 42% Someone else 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% No Opinion 16% 18% 20% 21% 21%

Which candidate for governor . . . :

FEINSTEIN WILSON Is the candidate for change? 59% 13% Would do a better job of improving ethics in government? 37% 29% Has strongest qualities of leadership? 34% 39% Would do a better job on taxes? 25% 41%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll