Voter Official Predicts 55-60% Turnout in O.C. if Governor’s Race Goes to Wire

Registrar of Voters Donald Tanney says a close governor’s race between Sen. Pete Wilson and Dianne Feinstein, plus some controversial statewide and local ballot measures, could drive 55% to 60% of Orange County’s 1,090,950 registered voters to the polls Nov. 6.

If Tanney’s prediction is correct, the turnout of more than half a million county voters in the general election would far surpass the 39% who turned out for the June 5 primary. But it would not be as good as the 77% turnout in November, 1988, the last presidential election.

“We expect a turnout that is comparable to other gubernatorial elections,” Tanney said. “It won’t be as big as, say, the election turnouts in presidential years.”

In the last gubernatorial election in November, 1986, 60% of Orange County’s registered voters went to the polls. In November, 1982, the turnout was 68%, good but significantly less than the 78% who voted in Orange County 1984 to elect Republican President Ronald Reagan to a second term.

Tanney said his office’s registration and elections division sent out a record 117,000 absentee ballots for the coming election. Just 45,519 absentee ballots were returned in the November, 1986, general election, Tanney said then.

“Absentee ballots are the wave of the future,” he said. “They are convenient and give voters the opportunity to sit down and study and discuss the issues in the privacy of their homes.”

The registrar added that candidates, their campaigns and political parties are encouraging the use of absentee ballots.

The number of registered voters in the county--1,090,954--is about at the same level as in 1986, Tanney said. It was at a high of 1,183,166 in the fall of 1988, when Republican George Bush was running against Democrat Michael S. Dukakis.

Republicans have a commanding lead in Orange County registration, with 606,889 voters to the Democratic Party’s 370,179. The remainder is made up of those who decline to state their party preference or who registered in smaller parties.

In the June primary, the county registrar of voters predicted a 50% turnout, but just 39% showed up at the polls--putting the county 50th among the state’s 58 counties. Other Southern California counties did even worse, with Los Angeles ranked 57th, Riverside 55th, San Diego 54th and San Bernardino dead last.

Experts said a lack of exciting races--especially for Republicans, who had no contest for governor--may have caused the low turnout statewide, especially in Southern California.

Tanney, however, said he thinks that voters will crowd the polls Nov. 6 because of the close gubernatorial race and a multitude of hotly contested statewide propositions, such as Proposition 138, the so-called Big Green initiative, and Orange County’s Measure M, a half-cent sales tax for county transportation projects.