THE TIMES POLL : Need for Change a Key Issue in Governor Race

Dianne Feinstein on Tuesday rode a wave of voter discontent and demand for change, while Sen. Pete Wilson attracted voters with his leadership qualities and experience, The Los Angeles Times Poll found.

A big part of the change demanded by women was that--as Feinstein repeatedly described the voters’ choice in recent days--”a skirt” replace “a pin-striped suit” in the governor’s office.

The former San Francisco mayor, seeking to make history by becoming California’s first woman governor, benefited from a gender gap that had seemed to appear, then disappear and reappear throughout the long campaign. Women supported her by a margin of 14 percentage points, while men backed Wilson by only seven points, voter interviews showed.

When The Times Poll asked voters why they voted for their candidate, the most prevalent reply was that the person “will make the changes we need.” People who voted for that reason backed Feinstein by 7 to 4. Voters whose support was based on the issues--the No. 2 reason--split about evenly between the candidates. And those who liked their candidate’s “strong qualities of leadership”--the No. 3 voting factor--went with Wilson by 3 to 2.

People voting for experience also backed Wilson--a former state legislator and San Diego mayor--by 13 to 1, interviews showed.

The abortion issue was a bigger help to Feinstein than most political observers had expected. Asked what they considered to be the most important issue in the gubernatorial race, the voters’ most frequent answer was abortion. People who thought that way sided with Feinstein by 5 to 2.

But the next two issues on the voters’ list of importance were crime and the economy. People concerned about crime went for Wilson by 5 to 4; those concerned about the economy backed Wilson 5 to 3.

The Times Poll interviewed 6,960 voters throughout the day after they had cast ballots at 150 precincts, selected to reflect California’s population distribution. Additionally, The Times Poll factored into its computer a 20% absentee vote, the percentage of the electorate that had been expected to mail in their ballots. It was assumed the absentees voted in the same manner as they indicated in earlier Times polls.

The exit poll was supervised by Susan Pinkus, Times assistant poll director.

The voter interviews also enabled The Times Poll to analyze the electorate’s decisions on other major races and ballot propositions.

Proposition 128, the sweeping “Big Green” environmental initiative, failed even to capture the support of the vast majority of voters who agreed that “the quality of life in California has gotten worse in the past 10 years.” A whopping two-thirds of the electorate said the state’s quality of life had deteriorated, but they voted narrowly against Proposition 128.

Similarly, the four in 10 voters who said “things in California have gotten off on the wrong track” opposed Big Green by 4 to 3.

Voters for whom the environment was an important issue in deciding which gubernatorial candidate to support backed Big Green by a big ratio, 5 to 2. Feinstein had endorsed Big Green and made it a major “litmus test” issue in her campaign. Her supporters voted for the measure by 3 to 2. But people who backed Wilson, an opponent of Big Green, rejected the proposal by an even larger ratio, 3 to 1.

Big Green was opposed by the critical political moderates, as well as conservatives, and also by those who think the economy is in fair to good shape.

Voters who have lived in the state for more than 10 years rejected Proposition 128 by a large margin, but people who have moved here within the last 10 years were about equally divided.

Men emphatically objected to Big Green, but women were divided about evenly.

Opposition also increased as incomes rose.

In California’s agriculture heartland, the long Central Valley stretching 433 miles from Bakersfield to Redding, Proposition 128 was opposed by roughly 5 to 3. Residents of the two biggest population hubs--the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County--basically split their votes. But the suburbs opposed the measure.

Regarding the term-limit measures, roughly a third of the people who voted against Proposition 131--which also included public financing of political campaigns--turned around and supported Proposition 140, the more stringent proposal sponsored by Los Angeles County Supervisor Pete Schabarum.

Interviews showed that the gubernatorial candidates may have had some influence in voters’ decisions on term limits.

Feinstein’s supporters voted against both Propositions 131 and 140. She had opposed both. But Wilson’s supporters split about evenly on Proposition 131 while voting 3 to 2 for Proposition 140, the measure he dramatically endorsed during the gubernatorial candidates’ televised debate.

Eight in 10 voters disapproved “of the way the state Legislature has been handling its job,” although it was unclear by the interviews how much effect this negative attitude had on the voters’ decision whether to limit lawmakers’ terms in office.

In the race for state treasurer, Democrat Kathleen Brown clearly benefited from a gender vote, being supported by women 5 to 3. Men were more evenly divided.

Liberals supported Brown by 5 to 1, while conservatives sided with the incumbent Republican, Thomas Hayes, by 5 to 2.

In the contest for attorney general, San Francisco Dist. Atty. Arlo Smith, the Democrat, carried Northern California by 3 to 2. But Smith and Republican Dan Lungren, a former congressman from Long Beach, ran fairly even in Southern California.

The 85% of the electorate who support full abortion rights for women backed Smith by 3 to 2. That also is Smith’s position, while Lungren basically is anti-abortion.

In the voters’ minds, the gubernatorial race clearly offered one candidate who represented change--as Feinstein had presented herself--and a veteran office holder who appealed to people with his conservative positions on basic, traditional issues such as crime, spending and taxes.

Voters dissatisfied with the state’s economy--the quarter of the electorate who said it was in bad shape--backed Feinstein by 5 to 3. People who were worried about taxes sided with Wilson by 3 to 1, and those concerned about the state budget favored him by 2 to 1.

Voters who thought the death penalty was an important issue also supported Wilson, although narrowly. Both candidates strongly supported capital punishment.

Californians who believed their state’s quality of life had deteriorated during the past decade backed Feinstein by 4 to 3. And the people who thought “things have gotten off on the wrong track” supported her by about 3 to 2.

Voters were divided about equally over the question of whether “it’s time we had a woman governor.” Women subscribed to that notion by 3 to 2, but men opposed it by 5 to 4.

People also were split about equally on whether the candidates’ televised debate on Oct. 7 was important in their voting decision. Those who thought the confrontation was important voted for Feinstein by 5 to 4, while people who were not swayed by the debate gave a slight edge to Wilson.

Liberals supported Feinstein by roughly 4 to 1, while conservatives went for Wilson by about the same ratio.

Union members, who backed Feinstein heavily with campaign contributions, also supported her by nearly 2 to 1.

People over age 65--who represented about a quarter of the electorate--gave a slight edge to Wilson. People in their 20s sided heavily for Feinstein.

Blacks voted for the Democratic nominee by about 7 to 1. So did Latinos, by nearly 2 to 1. Asians leaned toward Feinstein. Anglos voted for Wilson by a small margin.

Jews voted for Feinstein, who is Jewish, by almost 4 to 1.

Southern California voted narrowly for Wilson, while Northern California went for Feinstein by 4 to 3. Feinstein’s home, the San Francisco Bay Area, supported her by 2 to 1. But the Central Valley, where Feinstein had alienated the agriculture industry because of her support for Big Green, divided about equally between the candidates.

HOW CALIFORNIANS VOTED

Snapshots of California voters in various categories and how they voted in the race for governor, as found in the Los Angeles Times exit poll.

FEINSTEIN WILSON GENDER Male 44% 51% Female 55% 41% AGE 18 to 25 55% 40% 26 to 44 51% 43% 45 to 64 48% 48% 65 or over 45% 52% EDUCATION Dropout 58% 37% High school graduate 48% 48% Some college or more 48% 47% RACE Latino 61% 33% Anglo 43% 52% Black 86% 12% Asian 52% 44% Other 44% 54% HOUSEHOLD INCOME Less than $20,000 58% 39% $20,000 to $40,000 51% 44% $41,000 to $75,000 48% 47% More than $75,000 42% 55% RELIGION Protestant 43% 53% Catholic 51% 44% Jewish 77% 21% Other 53% 41% POLITICAL IDEOLOGY Liberal 79% 18% Moderate 50% 46% Conservative 20% 76% Other 50% 37% REGION L.A. County 50% 45% Orange County 36% 59% Rest of S. Calif. 44% 52% Central Valley 62% 34% Bay Area 48% 48% Rest of N. Calif. 52% 44% LENGTH OF TIME IN CALIFORNIA 5 years or less 55% 40% 6 to 10 years 57% 40% 11 to 20 years 52% 43% More than 20 years 47% 48%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll