Democrats Have High Hopes for 1992 Race : Politics: They think economic fairness is a message that may swing the next election. But the party is warned not to talk of soaking the rich.

“We’re poised for success in ‘92,” Democratic National Chairman Ron Brown boasted Wednesday as he pointed to his party’s gains in Congress and in key governor’s races.

The returns from Tuesday’s balloting do offer the Democrats some grounds for optimism. But bitter experience suggests that such off-year successes are deucedly difficult to translate into presidential victories.

The Democrats scored even more impressive gains in the 1982 and 1986 midterm elections; but, each time, their standard-bearers went down to dismal defeat in the subsequent presidential elections.

Those memories did not stop Democrats from feeling good about the 1990 voting. Moreover, many believe that, by stressing economic fairness, their party had at last found a message that could arouse the electorate in presidential years, evoking memories of the Franklin D. Roosevelt-Harry S. Truman and John F. Kennedy eras.

“We had something to say and the Republicans had nothing to say,” said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. He counted three 1990 victors among his clients--Sens. Carl Levin of Michigan and Daniel K. Akaka of Hawaii and Gov.-elect Barbara Roberts of Oregon.

Mellman pointed out that anti-communism--a Republican standby in the past in both off-year elections and presidential campaigns--had lost most of its punch in the post-Cold War era. Likewise, opposition to tax hikes, another long-favored GOP position, had lost credibility since President Bush revoked his campaign promise to reject any tax increase.

Nevertheless, professionals in both parties warn that Democrats will self-destruct in 1992 if they misread the reaction and transform the pledge to fairness into a crusade to soak the rich.

“Republicans hope that is what the Democrats will say in 1992,” said David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union and political director of the 1980 Bush presidential campaign.

“If Democrats say, ‘Tax the rich,’ the voters will know what they really want is to tax somebody, somewhere, somehow,” Keene said.

The defeat of several incumbent governors who had raised taxes demonstrated the continued sensitivity of voters to the tax issue, said Al From, executive director of the Democratic Leadership Council, a group of moderate to conservative elected officials.

That same issue, From recalled, raised havoc with the campaigns of 1984 Democratic standard-bearer Walter F. Mondale and 1988 nominee Michael S. Dukakis.

“We are not going to convince middle-class voters that we are on their side simply by going after the rich,” From said. “It is very important that the Democrats pick a candidate who is on the side of expanding opportunity and not the side of feeding government,” he said.

Before a Democratic presidential candidate should even consider asking for a tax increase, party professionals said, he must first convince voters that he will make sure that they get their money’s worth out of the taxes they are already paying.

“The key issue is Democratic credibility to run the country and manage the government,” said Tom Kiley, the chief pollster for the Dukakis presidential campaign.

The defeat Tuesday of a Massachusetts ballot proposition that would have rolled back state taxes is proof that it is possible to restrain the tide of taxpayer resentment, Kiley said.

Although Massachusetts voters are furious about state fiscal policies, opponents of the measure convinced voters that its adoption would make economic conditions even worse than they already are, Kiley said.

In addition to finding an effective message regarding taxes and fairness, Democrats must find the right messenger to deliver it in 1992.

Some believe that Tuesday’s returns tarnished the reputations of two prominent prospects for that position--New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley and New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo.

Many believe that Bradley was badly hurt by voter backlash against the tax increase package pushed through the Legislature earlier this year by his fellow Democrat, newly elected Gov. James J. Florio. Bradley, who won with 64% of the vote in 1984, squeaked through this time with 52% in his race against a little known Republican opponent.

Some think that Cuomo was damaged by his state’s serious fiscal problems. He is facing a budget deficit of $550 million to $800 million this year and of $2 billion next year and has refused to rule out the possibility of tax increases. Against a lightly regarded Republican and a third-party Conservative candidate, Cuomo got only 54% of the vote. He won with 65% in 1986.

But, even if these two are set aside, the Democrats would have no shortage of 1992 prospects. They include Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, Dukakis’ running mate in 1988; Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., a 1988 candidate who ran well in his native South, and Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey, a new face on the national political scene.

From, of the Democratic Leadership Council, said that, to do well in 1992, Democrats must pick “a mainstream candidate, someone who is not a tax-and-spend liberal.”

Although he has no one candidate in mind, From does have a list of qualifications for a sort of composite nominee: “I would like someone who has the gravitas of (Georgia Sen. Sam) Nunn, the discipline of (Virginia Sen. Charles S.) Robb, the ability to deliver a values message of (Arkansas Gov. Bill) Clinton and the stamina and campaigning ability of (Missouri Rep. Richard A.) Gephardt.”