Political Bottleneck at an End? : Elections: State will get new U.S. senators by 1992. To Westside officeholders, that change may be opportunity knocking at last. : News ANALYSIS

The logjam that has blocked the upward mobility of Westside politicians for years may finally be breaking up.

The election of Sen. Pete Wilson as governor and Sen. Alan Cranston’s announcement late last week that he has prostate cancer and will not seek reelection in 1992 are likely to open some doors of opportunity. Wilson will resign from the Senate and appoint his own successor when he takes office in Sacramento early next year, but that successor will have to run for election in 1992.

With both of California’s U.S. Senate seats thus on the line in 1992, political figures from both parties have been sizing up their prospects of moving up to a more prestigious office.

One such politician is Rep. Mel Levine (D-Santa Monica), who, even before Cranston’s announcement last week, was widely expected to make a run for the Senate in 1992. Levine, easily elected to his fifth House term on Tuesday, has made no secret of his desire to run for the Senate and has built a $1.7-million campaign treasury in anticipation of doing so.

After Cranston’s announcement, Levine said he will consult with family and friends and make a decision on the Senate race in the near future.

Although unwilling to make a definitive statement just two days after being reelected to the House, Levine said in an interview Thursday that the need to raise massive sums of money for a Senate race will prompt him to make a decision by early next year. If he decides to enter the contest, Levine said he will “spend 1991 raising the war chest to run this race.”

If Levine runs, the prospect of an open congressional seat could set in motion a political chain reaction.

“If there is an open seat, there will be a scramble,” said Robert Stern, co-director of the California Commission on Campaign Financing, a private group of business, labor and academic leaders interested in political reform.

State lawmakers, faced with newly enacted term limits, may be particularly interested in running for other political posts, Stern said.

But because of reapportionment, Stern said there is no guarantee that Levine’s district, which stretches along the coast from Santa Monica to the South Bay, will continue to exist.

The boundaries of all legislative and congressional districts must be redrawn based on new census figures.

California’s rapid population growth during the 1980s will mean as many as seven new congressional districts. But most of that growth has occurred elsewhere, and it may be difficult for five Democratic lawmakers to continue to share a piece of the Westside in the future.

And the reapportion process that will get under way next year will be far different from what occurred after the 1980 census. Then, a Legislature dominated by Democrats joined a Democratic governor, Edmund G. Brown Jr., to adopt a plan highly favorable to their party. Wilson’s election on Tuesday gives the Republicans a veto this time around, seemingly assuring that the 1990s reapportionment will be bipartisan.

Levine said it is “impossible to make an intelligent prediction” about what the boundaries of California’s congressional districts will look like. If Wilson and the Democratic legislative leaders cannot reach a compromise, the new district lines will probably be determined in court, he said.

There also is a measure of uncertainty concerning the future plans of another high-profile Westside legislator: Assemblyman Tom Hayden (D-Santa Monica).

In an interview before the election, Hayden said he planned to win reelection to a fifth Assembly term and “then make a personal assessment of what I want to do with the rest of my life. I’m 50 years old. To continue a political career is an option. Not the only one. I resist efforts to try to draw a conclusion now.”

At that point, Hayden admitted: “My enthusiasm about giving the next several years of my life to electoral office is dim.”

Might Hayden run for Congress in 1992? Will he run for the U.S. Senate as he did in 1976? Will he seek reelection to the Legislature? Or will he get out of politics entirely?

Hayden remained noncommittal last week. After Cranston’s announcement, he refused to discuss whether he would seek one of the two U.S. Senate seats. “To immediately jump into political speculation would be inappropriate,” he said.

The only hint of Hayden’s view of the Senate race came in response to a reporter’s question about whether he would be a candidate. “It is certainly not my plan to do what you suggest,” he said.

Hayden acknowledged that “we took a beating” when the state’s voters overwhelmingly rejected the “Big Green” environmental initiative last week. Opponents poured millions of dollars into the effort to beat what they branded as the “Hayden initiative.”

But the assemblyman refused to see the defeat of Proposition 128 as a sign that he cannot win a statewide office. “When we passed Proposition 65, I didn’t read anything into it in terms of my personal fortunes,” he said. And he cautioned about drawing any conclusions about the loss of Proposition 128.

“Political fortunes rise and fall. I’ve seen that happen with me. I’ve seen it happen with a lot of people,” Hayden said.