Guatemalan Presidential Elections Appear Headed for a Runoff in January

A conservative, born-again Christian jumped to an early lead in Guatemala’s presidential election today, but it appeared that the contest would have to be decided by a runoff in January.

Jorge Serrano Elias, 45, whose resume ranges from close collaboration with one of Guatemala’s last dictators to a stint on a national commission promoting democracy and peace talks with leftist rebels, led with 28.09% of the vote with about 21% of the total counted.

If none of the 12 candidates gets more than 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff Jan. 6. It would be the first time in Guatemala’s history that one elected civilian has taken office from another.

Results broadcast by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal gave newspaper publisher Jorge Carpio Nicolle 23.17% of the vote and former Guatemala Mayor Alvaro Arzu Irigoyen 22.37%.

The candidate of the incumbent Christian Democrats, Alfonso Cabrera, had 13.68%. The other candidates shared the other 12%.

The winner will inherit a 30-year-old civil war, a bankrupt government, 60% inflation and an epidemic of street crime and human rights abuse.

The trend in Sunday’s balloting represents a sharp repudiation of the corrupt and inept Christian Democractic administration of President Vinicio Cerezo, who was barred by the constitution from running for reelection.

Election officials said the turnout appeared to be about 60% of 3.3 million registered voters.

That would be less than in 1985 but more than some observers had predicted.

Five years of democracy has done little to improve everyday life in Guatemala, and the challenges that will face the winner are immense.

Seven out of every 10 Guatemalans live in dire poverty and half cannot read or write.

The new president will also have to contend with an immensely powerful military and one of the most conservative private sectors in the hemisphere.