THE TIMES POLL : Americans More Wary About Prospect of War

As the U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gulf accelerates, Americans are growing increasingly apprehensive about the prospect of war and want both Congress and the United Nations to approve any offensive military action, a new Times Poll reveals.

Although Americans continue to support the deployment of troops to the region, most of those surveyed disapproved of President Bush’s recent decision to nearly double the American military presence in Saudi Arabia, a move Bush has described as necessary “to ensure the coalition has an adequate offensive military option” against Iraq.

And a larger majority agreed that the United States should continue to rely on economic sanctions to force Iraq from Kuwait and not resort to war, “no matter how long it takes.”

Asked directly if the United States should go to war against Iraq, Americans said no, by a 53%-38% margin. A narrow majority of men supported going to war, but women rejected conflict by more than 2 to 1.

These findings suggest the public is drawing its own line in the sand between deterring further aggression by Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and risking American lives in an attack to dislodge Iraq’s forces from Kuwait.

“A majority of Americans need more evidence to justify going to war,” said pollster Fred Steeper, who measures public opinion for the Republican National Committee. “The President is further in front on this than a majority of the American public.”

The Times Poll found consistent support for limiting the White House’s freedom to unilaterally commit the nation to war--even though those surveyed said they trust Bush to make the right decision in the gulf.

By a majority of 3 to 1 the public said Bush should call Congress back to Washington to debate gulf policy. Bush has resisted pressure from legislative leaders to convene such a special session. Also by 3 to 1, those polled said Bush should seek a declaration of war from Congress before attacking Iraq. Even Republicans, by more than 60%, supported calling a special session of Congress to give legislative approval.

More strikingly yet, more than 80% of all those surveyed said the President should seek approval from the U.N. Security Council before going to war. And most said the United States should fight only if other nations stand beside it.

Times political analyst William Schneider said these results undermine the conventional wisdom that Americans are impatient for the President to resolve the protracted gulf crisis, even if it takes military action.

“They’re not losing patience,” he said. “They’re worried that the President is being too quick to go to war. Is there pressure on the President to do something? No, not really.”

If anything, the poll suggests, the public might prefer to see the President move more slowly than he has in recent weeks, when his speeches have been marked by sharp warnings of potential U.S. action against Hussein.

The survey measured a substantial erosion in public support for the President’s handling of the gulf crisis since the summer. In a Times Poll in August, Americans approved of Bush’s response to the Mideast crisis by more than 73% to 22%. But in the new survey, approval of Bush’s Mideast moves slipped to only 54%-40%.

That change represented a steeper decline than in assessments of his overall performance. In August, 75% of those polled viewed Bush’s handling of the presidency positively, as compared with 61% in the latest survey. The poll, supervised by Susan Pinkus, Times Poll assistant director, was taken Nov. 14 and surveyed 1,031 respondents across the nation; it has a margin of error of three percentage points.

The results portray Americans as still supportive of the President’s initial decision to confront Hussein but uncertain of the mission’s ultimate purpose and uneasy about its direction.

As in the August survey, Americans by more than 2 to 1 said they considered the U.S. actions in the gulf “morally justified.” Even so, 3 out of 5 polled said the President had offered only a fair or poor explanation for the decision to deploy troops.

“The case has not been made why Americans should die for this thing,” said Democratic pollster John Marttila, who has examined public attitudes on the gulf for the Americans Talk Security project.

Those surveyed said by a 7-1 majority that they are confident the United States can defeat Iraq if war comes. But doubts are deepening about the military’s ability to dispatch Iraq as quickly and cleanly as it did the ramshackle governments of Panama and Grenada.

Sixty-two percent of those polled said they considered it likely that the crisis could “bog down and become another Vietnam situation.” That prospect concerned only half of those in the August survey sample.

Asked what considerations would justify war with Iraq, those polled consistently raised caution flags. No more than a third said they would launch “a major war” to achieve any of seven potential goals in the gulf.

Destroying Iraqi nuclear and chemical weapons facilities, protecting the lives of American hostages and deposing Hussein were seen as the most valid justifications for a major conflict, although the Administration has presented none of those as a central objective in the gulf. Defending Saudi Arabia, a principal Administration goal, was viewed as justification for a major war by only a fourth of the public--slightly more than those who would go to war to “neutralize Iraq’s army.”

Just 1 in 6 of those polled said the United States should go to war to protect oil supplies, and only about 1 in 8 said restoring the Kuwaiti government--another of the President’s core objectives--would be worth bloodshed. From one-fifth to one-third of those polled said none of these reasons justified any military involvement.

In all seven cases, a plurality of Americans preferred “a limited military involvement” to a large-scale war--which reinforces the conclusion that the public, while accepting deterrence, is resistant to escalation that might produce substantial American casualties.

“People do not want Hussein to get away with what he’s done,” Marttila said. “But they just don’t want to lose American lives over there.”

That sentiment is not uniformly shared. On all questions about the potential use of force, women were far more hesitant than men.

Overall, men endorsed Bush’s handling of the Mideast crisis by more than 2 to 1, while women narrowly disapproved. Men approved the deployment of additional troops to the gulf by a margin of 16 percentage points, while women disapproved by an overwhelming margin of 35 percentage points. Similarly, women were far more likely than men to worry that a war launched in the sands of Saudi Arabia could bog down to become another Vietnam.

Blacks and Hispanics were also more cautious about escalating the conflict than whites. Low- and middle-income respondents were more skeptical than the affluent.

Not surprisingly, self-described liberals opposed war by greater than 2 to 1. But those who described their ideology as middle-of-the-road and conservative also narrowly opposed war.

BUSH’S RATING DROPS: Americans have doubts about President’s performance. A24

BUSH AND THE MIDEAST Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling the Iraq situation in the Mideast? Nov. 14 Approve: 54% Disapprove: 40% Don’t know: 6% August Approve: 73% Disapprove: 22% Don’t know: 5% Q. Overall, taking into consideration everything you heard or read about the Mideast crisis, do you think the U.S. should go to war against Iraq or not? Don’t go to war: 53% Go to war: 38% Don’t know: 9% Q. Should President Bush ask Congress to declare war against Iraq before he orders military action, or should the President take military action without declaration of war by Congress? Ask Congress to declare war: 69% Military action without Congress declaring war: 23% Don’t know: 8% Q. Do you agree or disagree: “To preserve the multinational alliance in the gulf, President Bush ought to seek approval of the United Nations Security Council before ordering an offensive attack on Iraq.” Agree: 81% Disagree: 14% Don’t know: 5% Source: Times Poll