U.S. Confident of U.N. Votes for Gulf Action

U.S. diplomats at the United Nations expressed confidence Sunday that intensive lobbying by President Bush and Secretary of State James A. Baker III has succeeded in securing enough votes for the Security Council to pass a resolution setting the stage for the use of military force if Iraq does not withdraw its troops from Kuwait.

Whether the resolution will contain a deadline will be the subject of intensive negotiations among Security Council members starting today. The final wording of a text, which the Bush Administration hopes will be voted upon Thursday, is still uncertain.

But a tentative resolution drafted by Washington was circulated among the five permanent members of the Security Council over the weekend. The text, according to U.S. officials, does not specifically mention force but speaks in terms of taking the necessary means to enforce earlier resolutions passed by the council.

These measures, which have been ignored by President Saddam Hussein, demand among other actions the immediate withdrawal of troops from Kuwait and the enforcement of trade sanctions against Iraq. And they strongly condemn aggressive acts against diplomatic embassies and personnel in Kuwait city. On Aug. 25, the council voted a naval blockade of Iraq.

“I can’t tell you what words will be used because that will be a part of the negotiation which has been going on for some time,” National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft said in a television interview Sunday. “But it will be something like taking the necessary means to enforce the 10 U.N. resolutions which so far Saddam Hussein has ignored.”

At the United Nations, diplomats confirmed that the draft contained similar language. They said the Bush Administration would like the final version approved by the council to set a deadline in January for Iraq to pull its troops out of Kuwait.

But some Security Council members--notably the Soviet Union and China among the permanent council members--are reluctant to set such an early deadline, preferring more time for diplomatic negotiations.

On Friday, the Soviet Union announced that Foreign Minister Eduard A. Shevardnadze would travel to the United Nations this week to attend the Security Council meeting on the Persian Gulf.

The Bush Administration is particularly anxious to see the council pass the new resolution by the end of November, while the United States holds the council presidency. In December, Yemen assumes the presidency.

All the previous resolutions have received the support of 13 council members, with only Yemen and Cuba voting against the text or to abstain.

In Washington, Defense Secretary Dick Cheney said Sunday that Iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait in itself will not solve the gulf crisis because it is “only a short matter of time” before Iraq acquires the ability to threaten the world with both nuclear and biological weapons.

Suggesting that Iraq may be less than a year away from manufacturing a “very crude” nuclear device, Cheney said that “aggressive” sanctions will have to be maintained against the regime of President Hussein even after the question of Kuwait is resolved.

“If he (Hussein) were to come into compliance and withdraw from Kuwait, you are still going to have to worry about the problem of his acquisition of sophisticated weapons,” Cheney said in an appearance on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

“That’s going to require a far more aggressive set of sanctions than we’ve seen up till now,” the secretary added. “That means the sanctions won’t go totally away.”

Echoing the new emphasis that the Administration is placing on Iraq’s attempts to acquire nuclear weapons, Cheney and Scowcroft both suggested in separate interviews Sunday that time may be working against the coalition opposing Iraq.

“It’s not clear whose side time is on,” Cheney said, adding that economic and political pressures could begin to affect the anti-Iraqi resolve of financially hard-pressed coalition partners such as Egypt, Turkey and the governments of Eastern Europe.

“I don’t think anybody’s eager for military action, but neither are they eager to have this drawn out over an indefinite period of time,” Scowcroft said on ABC’s “This Week with David Brinkley.” “There’s a common feeling . . . that it needs to be brought to an end.”

Meanwhile, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh warned Sunday that a U.N. resolution supporting the use of force would be “a very dangerous development that would threaten the entire region,” the Washington Post reported. When Yemen assumes the council’s presidency Saturday, it will be in a position to use parliamentary maneuvers to stall consideration of the resolution.

Also this week, hearings on the Administration’s gulf policy will be held on Capitol Hill, where Democrats have voiced growing concern at what appears to be President Bush’s increasing impatience with sanctions and his willingness to consider using force to oust Iraqi troops from Kuwait.

Appearing on the same program with Cheney, Senate Majority Leader George J. Mitchell (D-Me.) said he is alarmed by the “attitude of inevitability” that appears to be spreading through Washington concerning the possibility of war with Iraq.

Arguing that more time is needed “to determine whether or not the sanctions will have their desired effect,” Mitchell said that “the best course is to stay the course” originally set out by Bush when the United States organized the world community behind sanctions after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait on Aug. 2.

Goldman reported from the United Nations and Ross reported from Washington.