Congress Still Split on Use of Force, Foley Says : Policy: Bush would not win a strong endorsement for a gulf military action if the vote were held today, the Speaker believes.

Despite extensive consultations with lawmakers, President Bush still would not win a strong endorsement from Congress to use force in the Persian Gulf if the issue were put to a vote today, House Speaker Thomas S. Foley said Friday.

“More likely than not, the President would get an affirmative vote (on authorizing use of force), but it wouldn’t be overwhelming,” Foley said in a breakfast interview with reporters. “ . . . We really don’t know what’s going to happen in the next two or three weeks. There’s a lot of uncertainty.”

How the Bush Administration will deal with congressional skepticism about its gulf policy remains a major question as Jan. 15 approaches. That is the deadline set by the U.N. Security Council for an Iraqi troop withdrawal from Kuwait.

Congress is due to return to session Jan. 3, and leading lawmakers have warned that Bush will face a severe backlash if he orders a military offensive without congressional approval.

Bush, though eager to strengthen his threatening signals to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, has indicated he would not be willing to go to Congress unless a clear, overwhelming endorsement is certain.

A senior Democrat who spoke on condition of anonymity estimated that the House might split 230-190 in favor of authorizing armed conflict to get Hussein out of Kuwait after Jan. 15.

White House officials said their vote estimate is similar. “We’d win, but it wouldn’t be a resounding victory,” said one Bush aide.

Such a split might worry U.S. allies and encourage Hussein to exploit domestic dissension, officials say.

White House officials have complained increasingly that members of Congress are equivocating, willing to criticize Administration shortcomings but not to take a firm stand on a policy resolution. “A lot of them want to have their cake and eat it, too,” the official said.

Rep. Les Aspin (D-Wis.), chairman of the House Armed Services committee, said Congress’ hesitancy stems mainly from the President’s unexpected Nov. 8 announcement that he would double the size of U.S. forces in the gulf region and other signs that the White House is gearing for a late winter attack on Iraq.

“This was clearly a lot sooner than many members of Congress were prepared for,” Aspin said in a speech to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “There is a great deal of agreement that Saddam Hussein must get out of Kuwait and--if all else fails--I believe there is support for the use of force. But that qualifier--if all else fails--is very important. Have we given peaceful means enough time to work?”

Foley said he is convinced that Bush is deadly serious about using force to evict Iraq if it does not withdraw.

He said he assumes that the President would ask Congress for approval before going to war and expressed his own preference for continued application of sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Hussein before any resort to armed conflict.

Secretary of State James A. Baker III, continuing the Administration’s strident statements on the gulf stalemate, said he is not optimistic that the crisis will be resolved peacefully.

“So far at least, the behavior of the government of Iraq . . . would not make one optimistic that we could succeed in our very strong efforts to achieve a political peaceful resolution,” he said to reporters after meeting with British Prime Minister John Major.

National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft said in an interview with wire service reporters that Jan. 15 “is not an attack day” for U.S. forces but that Hussein would be “at risk” every day after that deadline unless he withdraws from Kuwait.

“One of the important points we’re trying to get across to him is that we haven’t blinked so far, we’re not blinking now and we will not blink,” Scowcroft said.

Major, on his first visit to Washington since succeeding Margaret Thatcher as British prime minister, echoed the hard line stand in his public comments.

” If he (Hussein) stays in Kuwait, . . . then he will have to be forcibly removed,” said Major, who will meet with President Bush today at his Camp David, Md., retreat.