Arizona Gubernatorial Campaign Almost Invisible : Politics: The runoff has been crowded aside by the war. Only now is the race really beginning, less than a month before Election Day.

Before war broke out in the Persian Gulf, analysts were expecting a spirited gubernatorial runoff campaign in Arizona.

All political eyes would be on the state, where media and voter interest would be high in the first-ever runoff race for the Arizona governorship, they predicted.

But, so far, the race has been nearly invisible. After lifting a holiday moratorium on campaigning, candidates Fife Symington and Terry Goddard were quiet as tensions mounted in the Middle East. And they laid low after the Gulf War began on Jan. 16.

As a result, voters who have been glued to their television sets, watching news coverage about the war, have yet to see a paid political advertisement for either candidate. This week, with less than a month before the Feb. 26 election, Goddard and Symington will be making their first joint appearance of the runoff campaign.

“The war has obviously shifted the focus of all our citizenry,” said Symington, a Republican developer who is making his first bid for office. “It’s hard to get any kind of a major message through at this point.”

He and Goddard were forced into a runoff after neither received 50% of the vote, plus one, as required by a 1988 law. Symington received 49.7% and Goddard 49.2%. They are seeking to replace Democratic Gov. Rose Mofford, who is retiring.

Now, although experts say voters are more interested in the war than in the governor’s race, the contest is heating up.

“You’ve got to run a campaign sometime,” Goddard campaign spokesman Jim West said. “We are going to go ahead and conduct a campaign and keep a very close eye on the public mood and events in the Persian Gulf. We will be as respectful as we can.”

Goddard, 44, is also keeping an eye on his messages. He is a lieutenant commander in the Naval Reserve and has exhausted his excused absence status; he could be called up for active duty.

The Democratic candidate, a gunnery and communications officer assigned to the vessel Tarawa in Long Beach, said he believes chances are slim that his unit will be activated.

“But, obviously, the chances are getting greater the longer the war goes on,” he said.

Goddard, a former Phoenix mayor who has been in the reserves for nearly 20 years, said he would serve if called during his campaign. If he were elected in absentia, Secretary of State Richard Mahoney would serve as acting governor.

If Goddard’s unit were activated after he became governor, West said, he might qualify for a key-employee exemption.

Although Goddard’s commitment to the reserves could swell some patriotic hearts, experts said it is Symington who is likely to gain politically from the war.

Rob Melnick, director of Arizona State University’s Morrison Institute on Public Policy, said negative economic effects of the war could sway voters toward the more fiscally conservative candidate--Symington.

In addition, support for President Bush may translate into more votes for the Republican candidate, a decorated Vietnam veteran. Goddard, who trails Symington by 10 percentage points in opinion polls, will be hurt the most by the media’s concentration on the war, Melnick said.

“It puts Terry at a decided disadvantage when he’s playing catch-up,” Melnick said. “He needs the media and he needs the space.”

Bruce Merrill, an Arizona State associate professor and political pollster, said that low voter turnout as a result of the war would help Symington.

In November, 58% of the state’s voters went to the polls; Merrill predicts a 30% turnout next month, down from the 40% he forecast before war broke out.

With registered Republicans holding a 94,000-vote edge and with a large older, conservative population in the state, more of Symington’s supporters are likely to vote, Merrill said.

Turnout could be even lower, depending on what happens in the Persian Gulf on Election Day, he added. A major development might result in voters’ sticking close to their TV sets rather than heading to the polls.

Arizona military personnel have been encouraged to vote by absentee ballot. One Army air traffic control platoon based at the National Guard facility in Phoenix was allowed to vote on Jan. 19, two days after being activated, although official absentee balloting did not begin until Jan. 23.