Baffled White House Aides See Contradictions in Hussein’s Actions : Strategy: U.S. officials hope to inflict a clear military defeat to keep him from claiming a political victory.

The behavior of Saddam Hussein has left the White House deeply baffled, with top officials unable to discern the Iraqi president’s strategy in the Persian Gulf War, a senior White House official said Thursday.

The candid acknowledgment that Hussein has caused confusion among those heading the U.S. war effort reflects a perception shared by experts in the Arab world as well as by Americans in general.

Among senior officials, Hussein’s course of action in the war is seen as one of contradictions.

“There is not a pattern which leads you firmly in any direction,” said the senior White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

On the one hand, he said, the dispatch of more than 100 airplanes to seek safe haven in Iran indicates that Hussein expects to retain power after the war ends and that he is seeking to protect his resources.

On the other hand, “torching the oil wells of Kuwait” is not a step that would signal his intention of hanging on to the emirate, the official added.

“To me, it defies analysis,” he said. “That is the character of this man--resourceful, innovative . . . but not logical.”

Asked whether the inability of the United States to figure out Hussein’s war plan makes it more difficult to prosecute the war, the official said: “It does, a little bit, because we have to spend a lot of time looking at ‘what-ifs.’ ”

Some experts in Arab affairs have concluded that Hussein may have given up on achieving a military victory. They believe his objective is to seek a political victory of sorts by holding out as long as possible against the U.S.-led coalition so he can portray himself among Arab nationalists as a hero for having stood up to the United States. Asked whether he subscribes to this view, the official said:

“I think that it’s quite possible that that’s what he’s looking for--that he can emerge with a Nasser-like victory, no matter what the circumstances are on the ground.”

The late Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser maneuvered himself into position as a hero to Arab masses--despite military losses--after the 1967 Arab-Israeli War.

“A lot of the things he’s doing,” the official said, are intended primarily to enhance his image not only among Iraqis, but also among poor Arabs throughout the Middle East.

The official said that U.S. allies are advising the White House to take this posturing into consideration.

“Part of our goal is that he not be able to emerge claiming victory,” he said. “If his military is clearly defeated in the field, it makes it much harder to claim victory.”

Thus, while President Bush has insisted that the removal of Hussein is not one of the United States’ military objectives, the official said that “it’s a desirable outcome” in terms of policy objectives.

The official also said “there is no great sense of urgency” about a possible decline in support for the war effort in the Arab world, particularly in nations such as Egypt and Syria that have contributed troops to the coalition.

He acknowledged that there has been “some erosion” of Arab support but said it was “not enough to be upset about.”

On Wednesday, King Hussein of Jordan criticized the allied assault on Iraq as a “savage” war on all Arabs and expressed strong support for the people of Iraq. Bush went out of his way to not speak harshly, however, about the Jordanian king.

But on Thursday, the senior White House official said the king’s remarks were “clearly not helpful.” But he said they were directed at the king’s domestic audience in Jordan--where Saddam Hussein has found extensive support.

The official also said, as have others, that the Iraqi president appears to be surrounded by aides who are unwilling to present him with an accurate picture of the military situation with which he is faced.

“People tend not to tell him the actual situation, but paint it in colors that tend to make them look good,” he said.