Only Sure Bet Is Jail-Tax Measure Will Test Gates’ Sway

Las Vegas hasn’t set an early line on the likelihood of Orange County voters approving on May 14 a half-cent sales tax increase to build a new jail.

But the ballot issue is already taking shape as an intriguing matchup.

Carrying the banner for the new jail will be Sheriff Brad Gates, who has made no secret in the past of his willingness to be the point man in persuading the public that a jail needs to be built in Gypsum Canyon. Between now and mid-May, the sheriff probably will line up an imposing list of judges, police chiefs and other law enforcement officials to argue that public safety demands a new jail.

With his personal vote-getting prowess and the kind of power base that being sheriff for 16 years brings to bear, you’d think Gates should be able to pull off a victory.

I tended to think so myself, especially in light of a recent Times Orange County Poll that indicated people were ready to pay a half-cent more in sales tax to build a jail.

Then I talked to Craig Miller and Carol Cantwell, a couple of private citizens involved in two of the no fewer than four citizens’ groups fighting the ballot issue.

Those groups extend the political lineage from those that sprung up a few years ago when the Gypsum Canyon site was being tossed around. The anti-Gypsum forces succeeded last year in getting on the ballot a measure that would have limited future county jail construction to Santa Ana, but it was voted down.

But that measure didn’t involve asking people for a specific tax increase--as the May vote will.

With that in mind, Miller, Cantwell and their colleagues have a simple strategy: They’ll try to persuade Orange County voters that the long-term costs of operating a jail in Gypsum Canyon will require future tax increases and that the site is more expensive than other potential sites.

“Brad Gates’ Folly” is how Cantwell sees it. Gypsum opponents will also remind you between now and May 14 of the half-cent tax that will go into effect April 1 to pay for various road projects approved in November.

The election will be all about motivation.

To be sure, the anti-jail forces are motivated.

They surely will sign on political consultants, get their position on TV and radio and go door to door with their campaign. With the prospect of a huge jail to be built so close to their neighborhoods, rest assured they will not rest between now and May 14.

The greater test, it seems, belongs to Gates. How persuasive can he be? Can he persuade people to go to the polls solely to vote for a tax increase on themselves?

More so than in his own election campaigns, most of which involved token opposition, the jail-tax measure will provide a solid fix on Gates’ political clout in Orange County.

It’s that political power that I wanted to talk to Miller and Cantwell about. I wanted to see how daunting they viewed the task of taking on the sheriff, now in his fifth term.

“All he has to do is stand up, and you guys (the media) print everything he says,” Cantwell said.

“I assume they (Gates’ forces) will throw everything into it they possibly can,” Miller added.

I said that Gates has staked the prestige of his office on the election.

“You can say he has the prestige of his office, but what has he cost the county?” Cantwell said. “How many lawsuits has he lost? He has the prestige of his office, but on a personal basis, I don’t think he has the prestige. I think he has the disdain of a lot of people.”

Cantwell’s references were to various lawsuits settled by the county over the years in Gates’ behalf, costing the county about $2.5 million.

Gates has quite an entrenched power base, I suggested.

“Without a doubt,” Cantwell said. “He has some very financially powerful people in his court.”

And you’re nowhere near that sophisticated an operation?

“It’s still a grass-roots coalition, no matter how you figure it,” Cantwell said. “If you’re going to compare it to Brad Gates’ political machine, then you’d have to say we’re pretty small potatoes.”

I heard what Cantwell and Miller were saying, but somehow they didn’t sound like a couple of sacrificial lambs.

You don’t think you’re nearly as overmatched as people might think, do you?

“That’s correct,” Cantwell said.

Overconfident, eh?

“Better than no confidence at all,” Cantwell replied.

Cantwell and Miller have convinced me.

No need to wait for Las Vegas oddsmakers.

With 2 1/2 months to go until the May 14 special election, it’s 7 to 5 that the jail-tax goes down to defeat.