After the Rain, the Temptation to Avoid a Fix

Perhaps you’ve noticed that we are being reminded every day, by everyone from the governor to toothsome weather forecasters, that the California drought is not “over.”

We must be reminded, you see, because every day it seems to rain again in the north. Even as I write this on Tuesday afternoon, both rain and snow are settling over the Sierra Nevada. And more storms are lining up in the Pacific like ladies outside the johns at Dodger Stadium.

Now, quickly, before the drought cops grab me, let’s skip to the disclaimer: I agree that the drought is not “over.” Dr. George is correct. Reservoirs remain far below normal levels. And no way they’re going to get to normal by the end of spring.

But neither should we trivialize what’s happened over the past two weeks. Those storms have made a difference. Already there’s 1 million acre-feet of water in the reservoirs that was not there before. And the projected runoff from the four most important rivers in the state--the Sacramento, Feather, Yuba and American--has jumped by nearly 2 million acre-feet.

That water means California is no longer slouching toward Armageddon, this year at least. Our condition is bad, yes. Critical, no.

And small as it may seem, that difference has changed the equation of the drought. The first to take advantage is our new governor, who has been let off the hook in some important respects. Pete Wilson will now be able to dodge the most gruesome decisions that were looming in front of him.

Specifically, Wilson will not be forced to declare a state of emergency and therefore not be thrown into confrontation with the rice growers and their cohorts. This is the crowd, you will recall, who are hogging more than 2 million acre-feet of water while most other farmers and the cities go begging.

An emergency declaration would have given Wilson the authority to take the water from the rice farmers whether they liked it or not. Now Wilson can look the other way. The rains have given the state enough water to scrape by even as the water hogs keep hogging.

That water will also allow Wilson to tolerate and even ignore the apparent failure of his only important initiative on the drought, the “water bank.” This device was supposed to get water transferred from the fat cats to the anorexics of the water world. Thus far, most of the fat cats have refused to take part and the water bank has transferred a diminutive 100,000 acre-feet.

Then there’s another bullet that we’ve all dodged. The nightmare scenario once believed possible in the Sacramento Delta will not take place. Only two weeks ago, the Delta stood in imminent danger of turning saline this fall when the state’s reservoirs went empty.

The Delta needs a constant supply of fresh water from the reservoirs to push back the saltwater of San Francisco Bay. If it doesn’t get it, the Delta turns saline and California’s economy turns to mud. That’s because the Delta is where the State Water Project sucks up its supplies for Southern California. Likewise the federal Central Valley Project, which feeds a major part of the San Joaquin Valley.

Now the danger to the Delta is removed, if we show only a margin of good sense in managing our new-found water.

As for the cities, the rains mean that mandatory conservation probably will not get any worse. Nor will it get any better unless the end of spring turns into a rain monster.

There is also an irony left by these rains. Politically, the rains may turn out to be something other than a blessing. The reason is both simple and human: We tend to fix things only when we are forced. The rains may have given us just enough maneuvering room to avoid any genuine fixing.

And California’s system of water supply grievously needs fixing. Right now there are people paying $2 an acre-foot for water while others plan to pay $2,000 per acre-foot for converted seawater. The list of special deals, grandfathered rights, scams and incentives to waste are endless within the system.

The next nine months will tell the tale. If you see the emergence of a free market in water, where cities and farms can buy and sell from one another without constraint, then you will know we are well on our way to fixing the system.

But if you still read of farmers flooding their fields with government-provided water to grow government-subsidized crops and refusing to share or sell that water while cities shuffle off to build desalination plants in Mexico, then you will know we remain, as ever, floundering in the dust.