Bush, GOP Reap Big Gains From Decisive War Victory

Though most Americans say they don’t want the Persian Gulf War raised as a partisan issue in next year’s elections, the decisive victory has already strengthened President Bush and the Republican Party for the 1992 campaign, a new Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

The survey finds few voters now say they specifically intend to punish the members of Congress--mostly Democrats--who opposed the use of force in the historic January legislative debate on the war. But, at the same time, it also shows that the public is clearly rewarding Bush and the GOP for the war’s swift and successful conclusion.

Bush’s overall approval rating stands at a politically intimidating 84%, with a clear majority of every major demographic group--including such earlier skeptics as blacks, Latinos, women and low-income Americans--applauding his performance. Even the one-fifth of the public who considers the country to be in a serious recession approves of Bush’s performance by almost 3 to 1.

Just as strikingly, a 51%-41% majority of those surveyed said that if elections were held today, they would prefer to be represented in Congress by a Republican. If those numbers hold up, it could mean serious trouble next year for Democrats, who have traditionally led on that measure.

“It’s a milestone for the Republicans to hold that kind of advantage on the question of congressional representation,” said Times Poll Director John Brennan. “But there’s no particular evidence yet that it will be sustained. The economy--not the outcome of past wars--usually decides presidential elections.”

Similarly, many Democrats argue that, with the war concluded, Bush’s popularity cannot long remain at such heights. Though they have often found inspiration in Harry Truman’s back from the dead victory in the 1948 presidential election, Democrats are now seeking solace in a less lustrous moment of his career: the precipitous fall in public esteem that took him from an 87% approval rating in June, 1945, to just 35% the following December, as the parades and celebrations for VE Day and VJ Day were crowded out of the headlines by economic turmoil and layoffs.

For now, though, public perceptions of Bush and the GOP are riding on a wave of good feeling lapping ashore as troops return home. Despite widespread agreement that the nation is in a recession, the poll found Americans upbeat, with nearly eight in 10 saying that the war with Iraq has had a positive effect on life in the United States.

Specifically, majorities of those surveyed said they expect the war to enhance U.S. prestige in the world, inspire new assaults on dug-in domestic problems and accelerate recovery from the recession. Ninety percent believe the United States now plays a more powerful role in world leadership than it did five years ago. And in a reversal from last fall, a majority of those surveyed said they consider the country to be moving on the right track.

The Times Poll, supervised by Brennan, surveyed 1,518 adult Americans nationwide from March 9 through 11 by telephone; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. For certain subgroups, the margin of error is somewhat higher.

The survey showed most Americans sharing President Bush’s optimism that the Gulf victory could produce “a new world order,” yet still cautious about committing U.S. forces to enforce it.

By a margin of 89% to 9%, those polled believe that “peaceful nations” will now “work together more closely to stop aggressive nations.” Similarly, by an 87%-12% margin, those surveyed anticipate that the United Nations will become “a stronger peacekeeping influence in the world.”

Three-fifths said the victory over Iraq will make other potential aggressors more hesitant about attacking their neighbors. And seven in 10 agreed that the liberation of Kuwait will produce “a much more peaceful and stable” world.

Optimism about progress toward peace in the Middle East itself is more tempered, but still considerable. A narrow majority of 53% said the war would make the Middle East “a more stable and secure place,” while 13% said it would increase instability and 30% thought it would have little long-term effect. By a similar margin of 55% to 38%, those polled felt optimistic that the war would help untangle the intractable dispute between Israel and the Palestinians.

Despite these expectations, Americans are in no hurry to repeat the experience of Operation Desert Storm. For example, only 15% of those surveyed said the United States “should make more active use of its military forces overseas”; by contrast, 80% said the United States “should be more cautious in using military force (and) . . . make sure military goals are clearly defined and . . . supported by the American people.” That represented virtually no change from a Gallup Poll, which posed that question in March, 1985.

Likewise, just over one-fourth of those polled said they believed the United States would be required to use military force “frequently” during the 1990s to solve foreign policy problems, while two-thirds believed such deployments would be infrequent. And almost three-fifths of those polled said they wanted the government to cut military spending, while more than three-fourths said more money should be devoted to domestic concerns.

None of this, though, suggests the kind of weary withdrawal from world responsibilities that many view as the legacy of Vietnam. Overall, on a seven-point scale that asked people to rate their attitude toward the use of military force, 51% characterized themselves as hawkish, while 23% described themselves as dovish and another 23% planted themselves between those extremes.

On political questions, the poll offers little apparent encouragement to the Democrats assessing their prospects against George Bush next year. For the Democrats, in fact, the electoral landscape in the war’s immediate aftermath looks almost as bleak as Kuwait itself.

Though overwhelming majorities said the war did not change their views of either party, its conclusion has clearly left the GOP commanding the high ground on the decisive issues of peace and prosperity.

By a resounding 59%-23% margin, those polled tapped the Republicans as the party that would “do a better job of keeping America strong in the years to come.” This endorsement virtually transcended party lines: even liberals gave the nod to Republicans by a margin of 50% to 32%, while Democrats preferred their own party by an unenthusiastic 43%-37% count.

Just as distressing for Democrats, the poll found that, despite the ongoing recession, the public also preferred Republicans by a 2-1 margin as the party that would “do a better job of keeping America prosperous in the years to come.” Historically, Democrats have not won the White House without leading on this fundamental measure of public confidence.

But the new poll finds the Democrats, who tend to fare better with voters during a recession, facing skepticism among many of their key constituencies on the pivotal question of who can maintain economic health. Middle-income Americans--those earning between $20,000 and $40,000 annually--endorsed the GOP as the party of prosperity by 48% to 23%; low-income voters gave the Democrats only a 42%-35% lead, while the affluent preferred Republicans by more than 3 to 1.

Whites gave the GOP more than a 2-1 lead on the question, while Latinos split between the parties evenly, and two-thirds of blacks backed Democrats. Even those who consider the country in a serious recession split evenly between the two parties.

Democrats, though, can take some heart in the finding that those polled still believe the party of Franklin D. Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy “can do a better job handling” local problems--albeit by a slim 42%-39% margin. On this question, traditional demographic distinctions reassert themselves, with large majorities of Latinos and blacks, and low-income voters preferring Democrats, and other groups leaning more toward the GOP.

The poll suggests that the greatest risk to the GOP in the afterglow of the Gulf victory may be overplaying its hand. In recent weeks, senior Republicans, including Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas and White House Chief of Staff John H. Sununu, have signaled the party’s intention to launch campaign sorties against Democrats who opposed the use of force last January.

But the poll clearly shows that the public, initially at least, recoils from any overt effort to beat swords into sound bites.

Though respondents considered the GOP more supportive of the war than Democrats by a margin of 48% to 5% (41% believed support differed little by party), an overwhelming 83% of those surveyed said that neither party was more patriotic than the other. And 80% said that politicians who opposed the decision to use force were neither more nor less patriotic than those who supported it. That sentiment was as strong among Republicans as Democrats.

By a margin of 76% to 19%, those surveyed said they respected the convictions of politicians who opposed Bush’s decision to fight. Nor do many Americans seem inclined to second-guess the opponents: just one-fifth said those politicians who resisted the war showed bad judgment, while an equal number said they displayed good judgment, and a decisive three-fifths said it is not possible to say whether events would have validated the judgment of those who opposed the war.

With all these considerations in mind, those polled concluded by a 71%-26% margin that “the record of politicians” on supporting the war should not “be discussed and debated as a political issue.”

Despite that bold statement of principle, in practice recent polls already indicate that some prominent opponents of the war, such as freshmen Sens. Paul Wellstone (D-Minn.) and Terry Sanford (C.), have suffered at least a temporary loss in public esteem.

The new Times poll leaves no doubt that the war has burnished the President’s image. By more than 9 to 1, those polled said they believed the President “has strong qualities of leadership.” That represents a dramatic improvement even from the war’s eve in January when 65% called Bush a strong leader.

Likewise, those polled, by a margin of 69% to 19%, now say Bush has “the vision to handle the country’s problems through the 1990s”; in January, Bush received a far more conditional 51%-36% endorsement for his command of what he has called “the vision thing.”

And yet the poll illuminates thin cracks that could ultimately splinter Bush’s support as the public agenda shifts back to domestic concerns. That shift in focus is already well under way: almost one-third of those surveyed said the economy will be the nation’s most pressing problem in the next five years, far more than named any other challenge, while another 16% chose the budget deficit and unemployment.

On these issues, Bush’s ratings remain less imposing. While Americans applaud his handling of foreign policy by an 86%-12% count, they approve his performance on domestic issues by a less enthusiastic 53% to 41%, and on the economy by just 51% to 41% (though that represents significant improvement from January).

Americans remain evenly divided on whether Bush cares about all classes equally or favors the rich. And by a margin of 56% to 32%, Americans believe the United States has lost ground economically to foreign competitors under Bush’s stewardship.

There is a growing expectation that Bush will confront domestic challenges as resolutely as he did Saddam Hussein: two-thirds of those surveyed said that after Bush’s performance in the war they expect him “to get a lot more accomplished here at home.”

Those expectations may prove difficult to meet for a man who has never seemed as sure-footed on the stubborn terrain of domestic policy as he did amid the swirling sands of war in the Middle East.

HOW THE PUBLIC VIEWS THE POLITICAL PARTIES AFTER THE WAR

The results are based on a Angeles Times Poll of 1,518 adults interviewed nationally. The interviewing was conducted March 9 to 11.

Which political party’s politicians tend to be more patriotic?

Total Democrats Independents Republicans Democrats 4% 7% 2% 3% Republicans 11 8 11 18 No difference 83 84 84 78 Don’t know 2 1 3 1

If the election for Congress were being held today, which party would you like to see win in this congressional district?

Thinks we are in serious Total Democrats Independents Republicans Recession Democratic 41% 88% 41% 5% 55% Republican 51 10 50 95 35 Other 1 -- 1 -- 2 Neither 4 1 6 -- 5 Don’t Know 3 1 2 -- 3

Which political party’s politicians tended to support the war against Iraq more strongly?

Total Democrats Independents Republicans Democrats 5% 9% 2% 2% Republicans 48 49 41 62 No difference 41 37 53 30 Don’t know 6 5 4 6

Do you think the record of the politicians who supported and opposed the decision to go to war with Iraq should be discussed and debated as a political issue, or not?

Total Democrats Independents Republicans Debated 26% 31% 24% 25% Not debated 71 67 71 73 Don’t know 3 2 5 2