POLITICAL BRIEFING

POSTWAR WORRIES: GOP hopes of using the allied victory in the Gulf War to regain control of the Senate are being tempered by a stark reality: The Republicans have an unusually large number of their own seats at risk, making them uncomfortably vulnerable.

There’s no doubt that the Republicans are tasting blood in the wake of the Gulf War. Overall, the Democrats--who now hold the Senate by a 56-44 margin--will have to defend 20 seats next year, and 16 of those Democrats voted against using force in the Gulf. GOP strategists believe that several of them could be defeated on Election Day. But despite the boost from the war, Republicans have their own problems. In all, 15 GOP seats will be up for grabs. Ethics accusations have weakened Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Alfonse M. D’Amato of New York. Moderates Bob Packwood of Oregon and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania could face primary challenges. And several senior Republican lawmakers, including Minority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas, may be mulling retirement.

Some analysts in both parties believe that next year’s Senate contests could produce more volatility than last year’s races, when just one incumbent was ousted. “You have all of these Democrats that are vulnerable, but Republicans are going to have to worry about holding on to their own seats,” a conservative insider said.

V-FOR-VEEP? One unlikely winner in the political aftermath of the Gulf War may be Vice President Dan Quayle.

Although the allied victory hasn’t improved the vice president’s flagging image, the enormous boost that it has given President Bush has defused any pressure to replace Quayle with a more politically attractive candidate, such as Gens. Colin L. Powell or H. Norman Schwarzkopf.

A new Times Poll shows that keeping Quayle on the ticket could diminish Bush’s support, but not enough to have much impact unless the race is close--which seems unlikely in the wake of the Gulf victory. In the survey, 5% of the respondents said that a decision to keep Quayle on the ticket would persuade them to vote against Bush’s reelection; another 18% said that keeping Quayle would sour them on Bush but that other issues would be more or equally important. That might prove too great a weight to carry if the contest is tight. But in the current environment, White House strategists are more likely to notice another poll finding: Just over two-thirds of all voters say that Quayle’s presence on the ticket will make no difference in their vote.

RDI IN ‘92? Democrats have found a new ray of hope in the gloom currently clouding their 1992 presidential prospects: an obscure economic measure of “real disposable income,” or RDI, the amount of money that each American has left to spend after taxes and inflation.

The figure may not seem important, but Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster, says that RDI matters. According to his analysis, which is being shown to key Democratic leaders, in every election year since 1952 where RDI has grown by less than 3%--in 1952, 1960, 1976 and 1980, for example--the incumbent party has lost the White House. This year, Mellman says, the consensus of forecasts suggests it will go up only by 1.64%.

But Mellman concedes that the prospects are less encouraging for his party once the peace issue is included. Results of his surveys suggest that if the GOP continues to reap political gains from President Bush’s leadership in the Persian Gulf, Bush would win the 1992 election with a little more than 52% of the vote even if the RDI forecast proves accurate.