Ethnic Rebellions May Help Keep Hussein in Power, Powell Warns : Iraq: Insurrections could ‘divert everybody’s attention from the mess he’s made of the whole country,’ head of Joint Chiefs of Staff says.

Gen. Colin L. Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Friday that the ethnic rebellions raging in Iraq’s northern and southern provinces could wind up undermining--rather than advancing--the U.S. goal of seeing Saddam Hussein ousted from power.

Powell, speaking to reporters for the first time since the war’s end, said the Iraqi leader “may want to keep the insurrection going in order to divert everybody’s attention from the mess he’s made of the whole country, the mess he made of the war, and all the lies he’s been telling everybody.”

Powell cautioned that the Kurdish and Shiite Muslim rebellions, which he said could continue inconclusively “for some time,” might be seen as strengthening Hussein’s position by providing a “rallying cry” to unify the Iraqi military in opposition to the rebels.

“If he suppresses that insurrection, then everybody can turn their attention to him, as opposed to the insurrection,” said Powell, the nation’s most senior military officer.

Officials said Powell’s remarks reflect the Bush Administration’s uncertainty about how far it should go in ordering military operations that indirectly aid the insurrections against Hussein but are likely to slow the emergence of a single, effective threat to his rule.

Powell, however, said he has received “no instructions to do anything that benefits either side, either one of the two parties.”

“What’s the better option to get rid of Mr. Saddam Hussein? You can take your pick; I don’t know,” Powell said.

The assessment of many senior Administration analysts is that only Iraq’s ruling Arab Baath Socialist Party and its associated military forces have the power, the organization and means to oust Hussein. Both the party and the military--in contrast to the Kurds and Shiites--are Iraqi institutions that would hold the state together and prevent its dissolution into warring ethnic factions.

“The Baath Party (and) military structure is going to survive,” said one White House official.

U.S. officials believe that the Shiites are too divided and leaderless to be able to overthrow the government. The Kurds appear stronger and may be capable of destroying Baghdad’s grip on Kurdish territory, at least temporarily. But American officials believe they are not capable of governing the entire nation, and U.S. policy continues to favor retaining Iraq as a single nation capable of playing a part in the regional balance of power.

With U.S. officials skeptical that either rebel group can oust Hussein and govern a united Iraq, one knowledgeable source said the aim of U.S. policy is simply to “keep the pressure on.” The hope is that eventually, something within the ruling party structure will crack, leading to a coup from within that would remove Hussein.

Thus, while the allies have warned that they will continue to shoot down Iraqi warplanes that fly in violation of the rules of the temporary cease-fire now in effect, the Administration has stopped short of declaring that it will shoot down Iraqi helicopters engaged in combat operations against rebel forces.

Earlier Friday, an American warplane shot down a Soviet-made Iraqi SU-22 warplane that left the ground in violation of cease-fire terms. It was the second such interception this week.

Military officials said they ordered Iraqi planes to stay on the ground because they could threaten U.S. troops that still occupy about 15% of Iraq. At the same time, denying the Iraqi military the use of its planes has removed a potent weapon that the Hussein regime could have used to quash the rebellion.

The release of Iraqi prisoners of war by the allies, a largely military decision that is being coordinated with Saudi Arabia, also could affect the balance of forces inside Iraq. Many analysts believe the sudden release of roughly 60,000 disaffected Iraqi soldiers could cause major problems for Hussein.

Powell acknowledged the politically sensitive nature of the decision, noting that “certainly there must be some unrest in Baghdad as these soldiers start to return from the mother of all defeats.”

But the United States is not “trying to use our military force to try to influence events inside Iraq,” Powell said. “There’s no secret that we believe the people of Iraq and the whole region would be better served if Saddam Hussein were no longer in power. But, at the same time, we recognize that a new set of problems could be introduced if Iraq suddenly broke up into a number of different countries, got ‘Lebanonized.’ ”

Powell called Iraq’s future “an internal matter that the Iraqis will have to resolve among themselves and . . . we are not going in on one side or the other.”