Rail Strike Seen as Likely Despite Plea From Bush : Transportation: Both sides say they are far from a settlement. The President warns that a walkout would be an economic disaster.

President Bush, warning of economic disaster for a nation already in the grip of a recession, Monday urged the nation’s freight railroads and their 235,000 workers to avert a national strike.

But both sides continued to predict that the differences between them are so great that a walkout at midnight today Eastern time is inevitable.

A coast-to-coast strike would put immediate pressure on Congress to impose a settlement and force the unions back to work under the Railway Labor Act, which sets collective-bargaining rules for the rail and airline industries.

Such a settlement would likely be framed around recommendations made last January by a board appointed by the President. The railroads appear to favor those recommendations; the 11 unions that represent rail workers do not.

The labor dispute is particularly thorny because it involves not only pay but two management demands that have become increasingly frequent sticking points in U.S. collective bargaining:

The railroads want their workers to begin paying a significant portion of their health benefits. And they want to tighten work rules that guarantee staffing and pay levels.

The potential dimensions of a strike remained unclear Monday. Some of the rail unions said they might strike only a few major railroads rather than walking out nationwide. Or they could conduct a “rolling” strike that would hit one railroad after another.

“There is a lot of posturing,” cautioned a congressional source familiar with the dispute. “A lot can happen in 24 or 36 hours.”

A coast-to-coast strike--the most recent of which lasted four days in 1982--would likely result in immediate and massive layoffs in industries that depend on railroads. The Department of Transportation estimates that within two weeks a strike would cause the layoffs of 500,000 workers in other industries.

The unions are pledging not to strike commuter or passenger rail facilities. However, several major freight railroads that allow their tracks to be used by commuter lines said they will shut down their entire systems should a strike occur.

More than 100,000 people commute each day on trains that operate on lines owned or controlled by the freight railroads.

About three-quarters of them commute to work in Chicago on track owned and maintained by the Burlington Northern, Norfolk Southern and Chicago and North Western railroads. Another 11,000 commute to San Francisco on CalTrain, a California Department of Transportation service operating on Southern Pacific track. And 2,500 ride Amtrak between San Diego and Los Angeles.

“It’s too early to tell how Amtrak service will be affected,” spokesman Howard Robertson said. “We have no idea what the unions are going to do.”

Because of safeguards in the Railway Labor Act intended to stave off strikes, representatives of unions and nearly 90 large and small railroads have spent the past three years trying to reach agreement.

A federally mandated “cooling-off” period originally ended in mid-January, but it was extended two months so that no work stoppage would occur during the Persian Gulf War. As of midnight today, the railroads are free to unilaterally impose a new contract, and the unions are free to strike for a better deal.

The presidential emergency board, in its Jan. 15 recommendations, attempted to reach a compromise.

It suggested pay increases totaling 10% through 1994--substantially less than the 5%-a-year increase sought by the unions--and another 11% in lump-sum payments intended to serve as annual “cost-of-living” adjustments.

However, the board recommended that up to half of the cost-of-living allowance be used to help the railroads pay for increased health insurance costs. Employees, whose health premiums are now 100% employer-paid, should pay up to one-quarter of any annual increase in health premiums incurred by their companies, the board said.

The board’s proposals would give railroads some relief on work rules. For example, under current rules, a train crew receives extra pay if it travels more than 108 miles in a day. The board suggested extending that to 130 miles by 1995.

In brief remarks to reporters Monday, Bush stopped short of saying he would ask Congress to intervene before a strike occurred. Members of key congressional committees have set aside time this week to introduce settlement legislation should a strike take place. But officials said White House backing would be required.

Times staff writers Mark A. Stein in Los Angeles and David Lauter in Washington contributed to this story.