Nation’s Jobless Rate Takes First Dip in 11 Months

The nation’s unemployment rate declined unexpectedly last month for the first time in almost a year, the government reported Friday, providing some initial signs of hope that the 10-month-old recession may finally be near an end.

The Labor Department’s monthly report showed that the national jobless rate fell to 6.6% of the work force in April, compared to 6.8% the previous month and 6.5% in February. The drop in April was the first such decline since last May, when the unemployment rate fell from 5.4% to 5.3%.

The job picture in California followed the national trend. The state’s unemployment rate fell to 7.4% in April, down from 7.7% the month before.

However, analysts cautioned that the state survey is a small one and that the results are apt to be more volatile. State figures, therefore, are not considered as reliable in gauging month-to-month trends.

The Administration immediately hailed the new figures. “Generally speaking, I put it down under the category of good news,” President Bush told reporters. He predicted that the economy would begin to recover by the end of June.

However, analysts cautioned that, although the decline certainly is welcome, there are enough statistical quirks and other uncertainties in Friday’s figures to avoid declaring that the recession has reached a turning point.

Janet L. Norwood, commissioner of labor statistics, urged caution. To signal a clear change in direction, “we should have at least two consecutive months of significant change,” she warned.

And Bush conceded that the figures “should not be taken as proof that everything is perfect.”

Analysts said that perhaps the most encouraging aspect of the report is an apparent tapering off in the loss of jobs in major industries. Although payrolls continued to shrink, the reduction for April totaled only 125,000--about half of the average in recent months.

At the same time, the total number of jobs in the economy--measured by a separate survey of individual households--actually rose by 640,000 during the month, despite a sizable increase of 350,000 in the number of people who are looking for work.

The jobless rate represents the proportion of the total work force--job holders and job seekers--who cannot find employment. If the number of new job seekers increases, it ordinarily tends to push the unemployment rate up.

But Norwood cautioned that the 640,000-job gain overall may have been spurred in part by an increase in the number of people out of work who have been taking part-time, low-paying free-lance jobs in which they effectively serve as their own bosses.

Most key sectors of the economy continued to suffer job losses, although in most cases these were smaller than in previous months. The total number of factory jobs declined by 42,000 in April, construction lost 21,000 jobs and retail sales lost 39,000 jobs.

“In no way is the economy out of the woods,” said Allen Sinai, economist for Boston Co. in New York. “The improvement here is that the bad news on jobs isn’t as bad as it has been. But neither is it good news.”

Lynn Reaser, an economist with First Interstate Bancorp in Los Angeles, agreed. But she said the one clear picture that Friday’s report gives is that “the recession is in the process of coming to an end.”

Irwin L. Kellner, economist for Manufacturers’ Hanover Bank in New York, insisted that the April figures are a harbinger of recovery, despite their quirks. “This was not a fluke at all,” Kellner said. “This is consistent with the recession drawing to a close.”

The improvement in the unemployment rate was spread through most major categories of workers. The jobless rate for adult men was 6.2% in April, down from 6.5% the previous month. The rate for adult women was 5.5% last month, down from 5.7% in March.

The unemployment rate for teen-agers also declined sharply, falling to 18.1% in April, from 18.7% in March.

But there was a sharp divergence among the jobless rates for major racial groups. The unemployment rate for whites fell to 5.8% in April, down from 6.2% in March, while that for Latinos fell to 9% last month, from 10.3% the month before.

However, the unemployment rate for black workers rose during April to 12.6%, up from 12.3% in March.

The department also reported that the length of the average workweek for rank-and-file production workers--another indicator of the economy--edged down to 34.1 hours in April, from 34.2 hours in March.

UNEMPLOYMENT BY GROUP

Here are the unemployment rates for April among certain demographic groups, as reported Friday by the Labor Department. The percentages are seasonally adjusted.

April March April Category 1991 1991 1990 Civilian 6.6 6.8 5.4 Mil.-civilian 6.5 6.8 5.3 Adult men 6.2 6.5 4.7 Adult women 5.5 5.7 4.8 Whites 5.8 6.2 4.7 Blacks 12.6 12.3 10.6 Hispanics 9.0 10.3 7.9 All teens 18.1 18.7 14.8 Black teens 35.7 38.9 26.4

* CONFLICTING SIGNALS

Since the Persian Gulf War has ended, the economy has been sending out a jumble of mixed signs. A1