Focus Now Seen Shifting to Quayle : Politics: New scrutiny of his qualifications is likely because of Bush’s medical problem, experts say. Pressure to get him off the 1992 ticket could build.

Word that President Bush had suffered an irregular heartbeat while jogging could change the political calculus for the next presidential election, political analysts said Saturday, putting an intense focus on the qualifications of Vice President Dan Quayle.

The chance that Bush, like eight of his predecessors, might one day die in office, making Quayle the President, “was an issue that people didn’t want to think about, so they didn’t,” said Times political analyst William Schneider. “Now they have to.

Or, as a senior Republican congressional aide put it: People now “have got to think the unthinkable.”

“I can tell you exactly what that means politically in one sentence,” Schneider added: “Pressure to get Dan Quayle off the ticket. You’re going to see a lot of panicky Republicans.”

Across the country, Quayle “was the first thing in people’s reactions” as they heard news of Bush’s problem, said Kevin Phillips, another political analyst. “It’s now something Bush has to take off the back burner and put on the front.”

For 27 months, Quayle has labored in relative obscurity, building up credit among GOP activists by seemingly endless rounds of campaigning, fund raising and speaking on behalf of the Administration. Now, he almost certainly once again will be subjected to the sort of intense scrutiny that left him reeling during the 1988 campaign.

Quayle aides insist that this time their boss is ready for the attention. “If you would poll Republican chairmen or governors or party activists--the people who count--I think you would get a good accounting of him,” said one official, pointing to Quayle’s extensive political travel and fund raising for the GOP during the last two years.

But outside analysts question that judgment. Quayle may be popular among GOP insiders, but among voters, he remains in low esteem. Polls consistently show that voters believe Quayle is doing a reasonable job as vice president, but just as consistently show that voters do not think him qualified to be President.

Administration officials concede that point but argue that Quayle is not at fault.

The problem, Quayle’s supporters argue, is that voters’ perception of him is frozen into the images of the 1988 campaign, which even his allies admit was a disastrous performance. Since then, one official said, “he has been covered by the media the way vice presidents always are if they’re doing their jobs--not very much.”

“The only information people get about him is from Johnny Carson or Jay Leno,” the official said. “That’s real tough.”

In fact, Quayle has fulfilled the limited duties of a vice president with no major problems, carrying out numerous domestic and foreign chores for Bush with none of the public gaffes that marred his campaign.

But precisely because the job of vice president is so limited, he has few opportunities to change voters’ impression of him. And although his aides and supporters object to the unfairness of the situation, the reality remains simple: Bush has a vice president with whom voters are not yet comfortable, and even for a popular President, that can raise political problems.

GOP strategists may cast a particularly keen eye toward polls in California, where Quayle was particularly weak during the 1988 campaign, Phillips suggested. Because California has the nation’s largest bloc of electoral votes, it is key to either party’s hopes for a presidential election.

Quayle has traveled repeatedly to California during the last two years, hoping to build rapport with GOP activists in the state and to wear down voter mistrust of him.

Bush’s medical problem, even if it is short-lived, also could have an impact on the Democrats, analysts and political activists have suggested.

Many Democrats on Saturday did their best to avoid talking about the issue, fearing that to do so might appear ghoulish, and knowing that even without them, Republicans and the press, would be raising questions about Quayle.

But for Democrats who have been reluctant even to think about presidential politics because of Bush’s high ratings in the polls, the clear lesson, said one Democratic strategist, is that “the political situation never stays static.”

“This will not embolden three or four Democrats to get into the race. But it should have a sobering effect and wake up a lot of people from their political stupor.”

Overall, the Democratic strategist summed up the impact of the day in terms shared by Republicans as well. “The consequences of Bush falling ill probably exceed the severity of the illness,” he said.

Staff writer Paul Houston contributed to this story.