Process Wins, But Peace Flounders

Secretary of State James A. Baker’s latest round of Middle East shuttle diplomacy seems mainly to have reconfirmed that the U.S. government’s interest in getting Arab-Israeli talks started continues to exceed that of either the Arabs or Israel. If Baker made any headway in his many hours of talks in Damascus and Jerusalem, it was in winning just enough procedural concessions to avoid having to pronounce further efforts useless. That wasn’t unexpected; neither antagonist wants to be blamed for finally driving a stake through the heart of the process. At the same time, neither has shown any sign that it’s ready to yield an inch on substantive issues.

That, too, isn’t surprising. Ideologically and politically, the Syrian and Israeli governments have solid reasons for refusing to consider compromises and concessions.

The Damascus regime, for its part, is unlikely ever to renounce the ancient dream of presiding over a Greater Syria, incorporating all of Lebanon, Israel and Jordan. The burden of that hegemonic baggage alone all but rules out any chance that the present Syrian government would make peace with Israel, accepting its legitimacy and recognizing its borders. On the more fundamental level of sheer political survival, Syria’s dictator, Hafez Assad, knows that if he ever does make peace with Israel he could no longer justify maintaining the police state and the bloated army that are the foundations of his power.

Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir’s Likud-led coalition seems to be equally comfortable with the status quo, given the alternative it faces of making territorial compromises as part of any political settlement. Shamir is one who believes, as an article of faith, that the whole of the West Bank belongs to Israel as a matter of right, an inheritance not to be traded away in whole or in part. Lending some political support to that tough stance, though by no means giving it full endorsement, is the profound conviction of many Israelis that their security requires that the West Bank and the Golan Heights, captured from Jordan and Syria in the 1967 war, never again fall into hostile hands. Those security concerns aren’t a matter of ideology but of practical survival, and must be dealt with as part of any negotiating process.

That process doesn’t seem to have been notably moved forward by Baker’s latest efforts. President Bush, to be sure, says he remains optimistic, and it’s always possible that he’s aware of something still hidden from the rest of us.

In any event, Bush clearly isn’t ready to call a halt to this latest initiative. Just maybe he has some surprises in store.