Bush Seeks Curbs on Mideast Arms : Proliferation: Plan would limit the spread of nuclear and chemical weapons and eventually ban missiles. It calls for a conference but includes no sanctions.

Seeking to curtail the Middle East arms race, President Bush on Wednesday unveiled a plan to limit the spread of nuclear, chemical and biological arms in the region and, eventually, to ban the missiles that deliver them.

“Nowhere are the dangers of weapons proliferation more urgent than in the Middle East,” said Bush, describing the region as “packed with modern weapons and seething with ancient ambitions.”

Under the proposal, which would depend on the voluntary compliance of arms suppliers and purchasers alike, the acquisition, production and testing of surface-to-surface missiles would be frozen, with the eventual aim of eliminating them from the region. This would affect not only Iraq’s Scud missiles but also Israel’s Jericho missiles.

The plan also calls for senior officials of the nations most responsible for arms sales to the Middle East--the United States, Britain, France, the Soviet Union and China--to meet in Paris as soon as a month from now to discuss guidelines for restraining the transfer of destabilizing weapons to the region.

France has agreed to be the host, and Britain has expressed readiness to attend. Commitments have not yet been received from China and the Soviet Union.

Bush presented the outlines of his plan in a speech at the U.S. Air Force Academy’s graduation ceremony.

The proposal was prompted by concern about a Middle East arms race, fueled to a large degree by the Persian Gulf War--and by fears before the fighting began that Iraq would turn its arsenal of chemical weapons on the forces of the U.S.-led coalition.

The program would apply throughout the volatile region and would encompass the arsenals of Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, as well as those of the region’s smaller states.

However, as outlined by Bush and other Administration officials, it would be difficult to enforce because it includes no sanctions to threaten would-be violators.

“Enforcement is not the operative word,” conceded a senior Administration official. Rather, he said, the plan is “an exercise in collective restraint.”

The plan raises some unanswered questions. Among them: Will Israel restrict its nuclear weapons without solid assurances that an elusive peace in the region will take hold? And will its Arab neighbors eliminate their chemical weapons and limit their conventional weapons if Israel retains its nuclear warheads?

After the plan was announced, Israel cautiously welcomed the initiative. Avi Pazner, spokesman for Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, said: “Israel and the United States share the concern about the potential of destruction in the Middle East. . . . Israel is studying the initiative in depth and in detail and will approach the Administration in order to work together for peace and stability in the region.”

In his speech, Bush declared: “We are committed to stopping the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. But there is a danger that, despite our efforts, by the end of this century nearly two dozen developing nations could have ballistic missiles.”

Many, he said, already have nuclear, chemical or biological weapons programs.

“Halting the proliferation of conventional and unconventional weapons in the Middle East--while supporting the legitimate need of every state to defend itself--will require the cooperation of many states in the region and around the world,” the President said. “It won’t be easy, but the path to peace never is.”

Guidelines of the President’s plan would allow states in the region to acquire weapons needed to defend themselves, but the proposal does not deal with the question of how the legitimacy of such needs would be determined.

And, in the specific area of limiting arms transfers, the plan simply calls on weapons suppliers “to observe a general code of responsible arms transfers,” to avoid transfers that would destabilize the arms balance and to establish “effective” controls over how the weapons would be used by recipients.

In the sensitive area of nuclear weapons, which Israel alone in the region is believed to possess, Bush called on the nations of the Middle East to implement “a verifiable ban” on production and acquisition of materials, such as enriched uranium and separated plutonium, that can be used in building nuclear warheads.

As for chemical and biological weapons, the President urged the region to support his already unveiled efforts to eliminate chemical weapons on a global scale and to strengthen an existing biological weapons agreement. But it made no specific new proposals, other than to call on Mideast nations to begin “confidence-building” measures that would reassure their neighbors.

On Capitol Hill, lawmakers who have been pressing for a moratorium on U.S. arms sales to the Middle East welcomed the proposal. But several key Democrats predicted that congressional efforts to halt all arms transfers to the region will gain momentum if Bush does not quickly follow through with more concrete plans to control the sale of conventional arms.

“It’s a step in the right direction. . . . However, I’d like to see it do more in the area of conventional weapons,” said Rep. Lee H. Hamilton (D-Ind.), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Middle East subcommittee.

“The President is responding to pressure from Congress in this area, and that’s good,” Hamilton said. “But the big question is whether there is going to be any real follow-through. That remains to be seen.”

Pressure on the Administration to staunch the flow of arms to the Middle East has been rapidly building in Congress in the aftermath of the Persian Gulf War. The House Foreign Affairs Committee last week attached a moratorium on all sales to the region to a foreign-aid bill being sent to the floor next month. Similar proposals are pending in the Senate.

“The President is to be commended for taking the lead in asking major arms suppliers to rethink their policies of reckless arms sales to the Middle East, but I’m concerned about what I think are loopholes in the area of conventional arms,” said California Rep. Howard L. Berman (D-Panorama City).

Berman, one of the strongest advocates of an arms-sale moratorium, said it would be unfair to expect Israel to halt the development of its nuclear-weapons capability in the absence of measures to “deal effectively with the spread of conventional weapons in the Middle East.”

Other key lawmakers generally welcomed Bush’s proposal. Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.), chairman of the Senate subcommittee that determines foreign-aid levels, said Bush’s proposal to convene a conference of the five largest arms suppliers to the Middle East is a “good first step.”

However, Leahy suggested that congressional pressure on the Administration to announce a unilateral arms moratorium may soon grow if the conference does not quickly materialize.

Welcoming Bush’s speech as a sign that the Administration does not intend “to return to business as usual,” House Foreign Affairs Chairman Dante B. Fascell (D-Fla.) said the proposal “dovetails nicely” with the consensus in Congress on arms sales to the Middle East.

The five nations that would meet in Paris have supplied 80% to 85% of conventional weapons to the Middle East over the last decade and, coincidentally, are the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.

Although foreign weapons sales make up one of China’s key means of obtaining foreign currency--its anti-ship Silkworm missile is well established in the Third World--Administration officials argue that China would still be interested in voluntary restraints on these sales to lower the risk of war in the Middle East.

But, said one Administration official, “I can’t give a reading on how cooperative the Chinese will be.”

Bush on Monday banned the export of missile technology and equipment to China because of concerns about China’s shipment of such technology to Pakistan. The State Department said Wednesday that Reginald Bartholomew, undersecretary for international security affairs, will visit China June 17-18 to discuss curbs on arms sales.

Despite the President’s announcement Wednesday, the Administration is preparing to offer Saudi Arabia and four other Persian Gulf countries an $18-billion package that includes F-16 fighter jets, M-1 tanks and multiple rocket launchers. It is also supporting up to $1 billion in Export-Import Bank loan guarantees and credits for defense exports next year.

The Air Force Academy graduation took place on the playing field of Falcon Stadium, within sight of snowcapped Pike’s Peak. After speaking, Bush stood at the 50-yard line and shook hands for an hour and 26 minutes as the 980 graduating cadets filed past him to receive their diplomas.

At the very second that the formal ceremony ended and the cadets heaved their white caps into the air, six jets from the Air Force’s Thunderbird precision aviation team cleaved the nearly cloudless sky above the stadium in a perfectly timed fly-by.

Times staff writer Michael Ross in Washington contributed to this report.