Yugoslav Unity Eludes Baker in Belgrade

Secretary of State James A. Baker III admitted Friday that he was unable to dissuade Yugoslavia’s independence-minded republics from breaking up the 73-year-old federation.

“What I heard here today has not allayed my concerns, nor will it allay the concerns of others” in the U.S. Administration and the international community, Baker said after spending almost 10 hours in meetings with federal officials and the presidents of all six constituent republics.

Slovenia has announced that it will declare independence next Wednesday and Croatia has indicated that it will follow suit.

“We think the situation is very serious,” Baker said. “We worry about history repeating itself.”

Baker was clearly alluding to the 1914 assassination of Archduke Francis Ferdinand of Austria in Sarajevo that touched off World War I, as well as a bloody civil war between Serbs and Croats that raged during World War II.

Speaking to reporters after talks with Prime Minister Ante Markovic, Baker called on all Yugoslavs to settle their differences peacefully without “violence or bloodshed or force.”

Although clearly directed at all contending parties, Baker’s words seemed to be especially intended as a warning against the use of military force by the federal government to prevent any of the republics from breaking away.

Markovic issued a veiled warning in a speech to the federal Parliament earlier in the day that his government might call in the army to block either Slovenia or Croatia from withdrawing from the federation.

He warned that if any republic declares unilateral independence, his government would “take measures which will secure the necessary conditions for settlement of problems democratically, through negotiations.”

The federal government has conceded that the complex Balkan nation must be restructured, but it objects to any of the republics withdrawing without the approval of the others. A fruitless series of negotiations among republic leaders broke down last month after the federal presidency collapsed when Serbian delegates refused to permit the Croatian representative to take his turn as president under the country’s unique rotation procedure.

Baker called for a resumption of the dialogue and for prompt action to fill the presidency. The presidential crisis aggravates a leadership vacuum at the federal level. Although generally supported by the international community, Markovic was not elected by the public and his economic policies have been widely ignored by the republics.

“We believe that everyone is interested in finding a way, through dialogue and negotiations, to craft a new basis of unity for Yugoslavia,” Baker said.

U.S. officials said that Washington will not take sides in the debate over restructuring the federation but will oppose strongly its breakup.

Baker said flatly that the United States would not recognize Slovenian independence if the republic goes through with its plans next week.

Slovenian President Milan Kucan yielded no ground in his meeting with Baker. He later told reporters that the republic has no intention of changing its independence timetable.

A federal government official from Slovenia, Ivo Vajgl, said that Slovenia’s Wednesday independence day is “not negotiable.”

Although the other republics might be willing to permit Slovenia to leave the federation, Serbia is adamantly opposed to Croatian independence because of the 600,000-member Serbian minority in Croatia. Moreover, relations between Serbia and Croatia have been strained for centuries, reaching their low point during World War II when more than half of the 1.7 million Yugoslavs who died were killed by other Yugoslavs.

Serbia has vowed to resist with all of its force any attempt by Croatia to leave the federation.

At least 24 people have died in ethnic violence in the last two months.

Yugoslav Foreign Minister Budimir Loncar, standing at Baker’s side, said that Yugoslavia is in “a very deep crisis, of very much concern to our old friends abroad.”

Earlier, Loncar was asked if Slovenia’s withdrawal would mark the end of Yugoslavia. He said Slovenia’s action will produce important changes “but the end of Yugoslavia, it will definitely not be.”

At the same time they are trying to head off independence movements, federal officials have sought to minimize the impact of the action.

Baker visited Belgrade immediately after a meeting of foreign ministers of the 35-nation Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, which adopted a statement warning Yugoslavia that it risks losing international economic and political support if it breaks up.

In his talks in Yugoslavia, Baker emphasized that European leaders would ostracize independent republics. The Europeans are concerned that civil war in Yugoslavia would produce devastating consequences for its neighbors, including a probable wave of millions of refugees.

Secession of any Yugoslav republic also could rekindle ethnic animosities in other Eastern European countries such as the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia and Romania.

Baker said that he would confer with European leaders before deciding on his next step.