THE TIMES POLL : Majority in Survey Believes U.S. Still Is in a Recession

Despite the widespread view among professional economists that a recovery is emerging, more than eight in 10 Americans say the recession persists--with one out of three describing the slump as serious, according to The Times Poll.

A deep vein of doubt about the economy runs through various segments of the public, and the recent flurry of positive economic news appears not to have eased it. The number who describe the U.S. economy as shaky actually has risen since April.

“I don’t know who will turn out to be right--the professional forecasters or the humble consumer,” said Fabian Linden, executive director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center. But consumer surveys have “an impressive history” of predicting the nation’s economic performance, he maintained.

In a faintly positive note, optimists continue to outnumber pessimists by slight margins, when it comes to expectations for the national economy and their own finances in the near future, The Times Poll found. In addition, half continued to characterize the recession as mild or moderate, and almost two-thirds described their own personal finances as secure.

Consumer confidence is considered a key weather vane of the economy, because personal spending represents two-thirds of the nation’s overall economic activity.

“We just don’t see evidence of a rebound in these numbers. If anything, there’s a hint that the public is viewing things a little more negatively,” said John Brennan, director of The Times Poll.

Indeed, more than eight in 10 now describe the U.S. economy as shaky; in April just seven out of 10 thought it was shaky. Similarly, the three in 10 who said the nation is in a serious slump adds up to a gloomier view than April when just two in 10 said the slump was serious.

The pattern was similar among men and women, as well as people of different income levels and racial groups.

The Times Poll interviewed 1,439 adults nationwide between June 28 and June 30. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The extreme caution reflected in many of the responses comes in contrast to cheerful pronouncements from the White House and many private economists in recent days that the recession has ended.

“It might well be that the optimistic forecasters are too optimistic,” said Linden, citing Conference Board findings that also suggest consumer confidence is limited these days.

Economists have cited a range of evidence to make the case that a recovery is getting started. Within the last several weeks, consumer spending, personal income, unemployment claims, a national survey of company purchasing managers and other gauges have pointed to a strengthening economy.

Still, the evidence is mixed. New home sales dropped in May for the second straight month, the government reported Wednesday. Also, residents of California and some other states face the prospect of higher taxes, a development that does not bode well for consumer spending.

Follow-up interviews with some who participated in The Times Poll suggest the public has many economic concerns, despite the upbeat view of many analysts. These range from higher taxes to foreign competition to defense cutbacks.

“Yesterday I found out on the 11 o’clock news our taxes are going up another 5 cents a gallon (of gasoline),” lamented Michael Meacham, 28, a resident of central New York who believes the nation is in a serious recession.

While his own job as a typist in an agriculture college seems secure, Meacham said that his brother, a corrections officer, recently was forced to transfer to a different city or lose his job, as a result of the state’s fiscal woes.

“Where’s it going?” Meacham asked of his rising tax bill. “That’s what really ticks me off.”

A respondent from Oregon said that imports of foreign-bred lamb had pushed down the prices she could earn raising sheep. At the same time, environmental restrictions had forced her logger husband to abandon the local woods in quest of work in Alaska--their first separation since the Vietnam War.

“The state is in an economically depressed situation, and I can’t see any easy way out of it,” said Carla Hensley, 42, who lives in the Oregon coastal town of Port Orford, just above the California border.

Aaron Armstrong, an “old soldier” who survives on Social Security and a military pension, worries that the slow economy will not provide enough opportunity for the returning Desert Storm troops.

“They’re on welfare, some of these soldiers,” said the Seattle area resident, 78. “They’re drawing food stamps. That’s why I say the economy is bad. It’s getting worse.”

Such anxieties about the economy have been picked up in various surveys of public opinion, a puzzling phenomenon during a period of supposed economic improvement. The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence today stands a bit lower than in May, despite a June gain. A weekly survey by ABC News and Money Magazine has shown similar results.

A consumer gauge prepared by the University of Michigan rallied last month, but remains no higher than early in the recession, according to those who have seen the private poll.

The least negative findings in The Times Poll centered on people’s expectations for the months ahead. The outlook for personal spending was marginally favorable, with 27% expecting to spend more money in three months than today, with 18% saying they would spend less. Similarly, 26% anticipated an improvement in their personal finances, and only 7% were braced for a decline.

Expectations for the economy were also marginally upbeat, with 27% expecting it to be better in three months and 17% expecting it to be worse.

Among the more optimistic poll respondents was Ted Ray, 39, of Jacksonville, Ala.

“People are paying their bills more on time,” said Ray, who owns three flower shops northeast of Birmingham. Not only are fewer customers falling behind in their payments, but Ray has seen a sharp rise in discretionary purchases, such as “flowers for girlfriends and birthday bouquets.”

In light of the strong comeback in business, which became apparent in May, Ray declares: “We’re coming out of the recession.”

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll interviewed 1,439 adult Americans nationwide by telephone June 28-30. Telephone numbers were generated from a computer list that includes all telephone exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and unlisted residences could be contacted. Results are adjusted slightly to conform with census figures on characteristics such as sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For percentages based on certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher.

Consumer Confidence

The consensus of economists is that a recovery is emerging, but consumers remain largely unconvinced, according to The Times Poll. The survey interviewed 1,439 adults nationwide from June 28-30. Is the nation in recession?

June April March Feb. No recession 14% 17% 9% 13% Mild recession 18 25 29 28 Moderate recession 33 34 38 33 Serious recession 32 21 21 23 Don’t know 3 3 3 3

Describe the state of the nation’s economy

June April Very robust 0% 2% Fairly robust 16 24 Fairly shaky 55 54 Very shaky 27 18 Don’t know 2 2

Source: The Times Poll