WHERE WATER NEEDS ARE EXTREME : DROUGHT ’91

In the West-particularly in California-it has become known as the Great Drought of 1991. Local governments have begun restricting the consumption of water for non-essential uses.

The rest of the country is not so seriously affected. “The quick interpretation is that stream flows and water supplies are adequate across most of the country, and the rest will depend on what’s in the reservoirs and summer rain,” said Norton Strommen, chief meteorologist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the nation’s foremost tracker of long-term drought conditions.

Analysts say most of the industries that are heavily dependent on water-such as agriculture, transportation, recreation and tourism-are not likely to be hit hard, despite the current drought. “We’re getting off a lot lighter than we thought we would,” Strommen says.

Here are areas of the United States where water needs are most severe, and a chart showing the average U.S. precipitation for the last 95 years. Also provided are brief regional precipitation forecasts through the summer.

Long-term Severity

The so-called Palmer index measures near-normal moisture depending on the land uses of particular regions. Thus, a dry year in a desert would be considered “normal” as compared with the effect of “moderate” dryness in populated areas.

Precipitation is expected to be normal to above normal from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies.

The northern plains will have above-normal rainfall.

Thanks to recent rainfall, the upper Midwest is out of any immediate danger. Water levels are improving in much of the Great Lakes region.

The upper Mississippi and Ohio river valleys are in relatively good shape, but there’s some flooding of bottom land in Iowa and Minnesota.

Precipitation is expected to be normal to above normal along the entire East Coast.

The Mid-Atlantic area is drier than normal, with precipitation expected to be below normal for the rest of the year.

The Southeast can expect below-normal precipitation.

Parts of the Mississippi Valley are still either flooded or uncomfortably wet. The lower Mississippi delta is saturated with rainfall in New Orleans already 30 inches above normal.

Dry conditions are expected to continue over West Texas and New Mexico. Stream flows are very low in much of the Southwest.

Rainfall for the Western states is expected to be normal-after another dry spell this month.

Conservation in California has staved off a serious water crisis this year, but the state now faces a serious threat from forest fires.

Average Annual U.S. Precipitation Long-term average: 28.8 inches Lowest low, 1910: 24.1 inches Highest high, 1973: 34.0 inches Sources: National Climatic Data Center, Weather Data, NOAA