NEWS ANALYSIS : ELECTIONS / STATE ASSEMBLY : Fear of Taxes Seen as Key to Conroy’s Victory : A last-minute flurry of attack mail and an army of conservative volunteers swamped moderate William G. Steiner, who was distrusted as the Establishment candidate.

Usually underfunded and often underdogs, Orange County conservatives have nonetheless scored a string of election victories that continued this week with the surprise nomination of right-wing activist Mickey R. Conroy in a special Assembly election.

Less than a week before Tuesday’s election, private polls for the two leading candidates showed Conroy trailing moderate Republican William G. Steiner by at least 10% of the vote. But Steiner, who outspent Conroy about 2 to 1, was apparently swamped by a last-minute flurry of attack mail and an army of conservative volunteers.

When the final vote was in, Conroy beat Steiner, 43.5% to 36.9% in the 67th Assembly District, which stretches from the county’s undeveloped inland canyons to its urban core.

Because he received less than 50% of the vote, Conroy will face a runoff Sept. 17 against Santa Ana Democrat Gregory Robert Ramsay, who finished third Tuesday, with about 11% of the vote. Because the district has almost twice as many Republicans as Democrats, however, Conroy is a heavy favorite to win the seat vacated by John R. Lewis in May, when he was elected to the state Senate.

“We were stunned by the excellent organization and grass roots that they were able to keep going until the election,” Steiner said of his rival’s campaign. “We could feel their momentum.”

Campaign observers from both sides said Tuesday’s vote reflected hostility toward Gov. Pete Wilson and his recent plan to raise taxes. But they also attributed much of the outcome to the dedicated volunteerism that conservatives are adept at generating, especially in low-turnout special elections.

“I would say that volunteers carried the day,” said Thomas A. Fuentes, chairman of the Orange County Republican Party. “One campaign was very well funded, the other one seemed to have the volunteer legions working for it.”

Steiner campaign manager David Ellis said the voter turnout of about 17% was nearly 3 percentage points higher than expected and was probably due to the vigorous work of Conroy’s workers, who reached more than 300 people last weekend.

In addition, Conroy’s campaign teamed with independent spending committees to send a flurry of last-minute mail, including seven letters in the last three days of the race.

“I think overall, the race shows the power of independent expenditures,” said Brian Lungren, whose political consulting company in Sacramento prepared five letters for Conroy in the last week of the campaign. “Conroy won the Election Day votes by about 10%, the same margin he was behind with 10 days to go.”

One of Conroy’s major issues in the campaign was his opposition to Wilson’s recent tax increase, leading several observers to say the election results should warn the governor about voter unhappiness with his leadership.

Others noted that Steiner also campaigned strongly against the tax increase, thereby blunting the effect of that issue on the race.

But Steiner still attributed much of the outcome to the tax issue.

“I think the overriding factor was that people believed Conroy would be more aggressive in fighting tax increases,” said Steiner, a city councilman in Orange and director of the Orangewood Children’s Foundation. “I think for the voters of the 67th District, the issue of taxes was the overriding concern, and (the result) should send a strong message to everyone.”

Observers also found another familiar theme in the results: that county voters dislike government and are attracted to outsiders more often than Establishment candidates.

“This is the county where the John Birch Society was founded, and I think a lot of that anti-government philosophy still maintains itself,” said Ellis, Steiner’s campaign manager. “What Mickey Conroy proved is that even a marginally funded candidate can sit on the sidelines and lob nuclear bombs at government and win.”

Steiner was endorsed by all five county supervisors, as well as the mayors in all the cities--Orange, Tustin, and parts of Santa Ana, El Toro and Silverado Canyon--represented in the district.

With such institutional support, observers said, Steiner quickly became the Establishment candidate.

“The rank-and-file Republican electorate here rejects taxes, rejects government and rejects overly endorsed Establishment-type candidates,” GOP chief Fuentes said. “They’re looking for the common man; they’re still looking for someone in the mold of (anti-tax crusader) Howard Jarvis in this community.”

As in Tuesday’s election, several county races in the last few years have pitted conservatives against so-called moderates.

In April, moderate Dana Reed, who was supported by major county business leaders and three supervisors, finished fourth in the state Senate race that was won by Lewis, a staunch conservative.

Another moderate, Brea City Councilman Ron Isles, spent more than $500,000 in a special state Senate race last year, only to finish far behind conservative Whittier Assemblyman Frank Hill.

Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach) also survived a challenge last year from moderate Republican Phyllis Badham. And Tom Mays, the most conservative candidate in a crowded race last year for the Assembly seat representing Huntington Beach, easily carried every Orange County precinct in the district.

“I think the perception is that there are not that many people who really care,” Ferguson said. “Well, there are that many people who really care . . . and when they get perceived as the underdog, they work that much harder.”