Baby Boomers May Control the Future : Prosperity lies ahead as those in the population ‘bump’ reach the middle years and peak earning power.

American demographers are excited about what they foresee as a unique period of prosperity in the next two decades, as the third of the population known as the baby boomers reaches early middle age, the peak years of productivity and earnings.

With their purchasing power and political muscle, the baby boomers could once again effect sweeping change in virtually every aspect of life--from furniture design to education, from vacation patterns to retirement benefits, Hudson Institute researcher Richard Jackson said.

Jackson warned, however, that, once past their middle years, the baby boomers’ numbers could pose a danger to government programs such as Social Security by straining the system’s ability to pay.

NATION WILL AGE MORE SLOWLY: Because of the huge “lump” the baby boomers represent, their coming of middle age will markedly slow the average aging of the American population.

As a result, the current median age in the United States, 33 years, will rise only to 36 by the turn of the century and will reach 42 by 2030, when the last of those born during the post-World War II period reach age 65.

MIDDLE-AGED WILL CONTROL MARKET: The proportion of two-career families, now 63%, will reach 75% or more by 2000, demographers say, accelerating the proliferation of services that cater to the boomers.

Examples: mail-order and catalogue businesses, home and yard maintenance services, special pickup and delivery services by businesses such as dry cleaners and groceries, even daytime pet-care services.

SOME MIDDLE-AGED MAY EARN LESS: The coming shortage of workers ages 16 to 24, who traditionally hold lower-paying jobs, may draw some aging baby boomers into the service sector, said Marvin Cetron, president of Forecasting International Inc.

As the baby boomers reach retirement age, however, demand for many services, such as fast food, will decline.

“There’s going to be a shakeout,” said Martha Farnsworth Riche of the Population Reference Bureau. “Everyone should understand that it’s a time-limited business--a window. These business people shouldn’t plan on starting a big franchise or handing it down to kids.”

VACATIONS WILL CHANGE: The travel industry, for instance, will see more and more people taking short vacations because it is increasingly difficult for two-job families to coordinate long ones. That explains the growing popularity of bed-and-breakfast inns. “People go to them for long weekends, but they wouldn’t necessarily stay for a week or two,” Riche said.

There will also be a resurgence of winter vacations as the children of two-career couples grow up and leave home, forecasters say.

BUT NONE OF THIS WILL LAST: “When you look around the corner, this is really just a 10- to 20-year phenomenon,” Riche said. “Sometime in the first decade of the next century this is going to go away.”

When it does, Cetron said, we can expect to see more elevators, escalators, levers instead of doorknobs, softer church pews, chairs that tilt, easier-to-read instrument panels and design changes in all sorts of products that take into account the aging population.

“The person who designs the first comfortable wheelchair will be a millionaire many times over,” Cetron said.

Mass entertainment also will reflect the interests and concerns of older people, and there will be more magazines such as Modern Maturity.

NOT EVERYONE WILL RETIRE AT 65: Already, more and more elderly people, having retired from one career, are starting businesses. Result: growth in jobs such as accountant, career counselor and financial planner.

With the “graying around the temples,” as Jackson puts it, will come a surge in the middle-aged segment of the electorate--from a postwar low of 30% to an all-time high of 40%.

Whether their unprecedented numbers will empower the boomers to effect significant changes “is probably the single biggest question in regard to baby boom itself,” Riche said.

Given the will and political cohesion, she said, they could well demand an overhauling of public education and a tough crackdown on drugs and other ills that menace their children.

Riche and others also foresee moves to promote savings and long-term investments, which could lead to lower interest rates.

“There’s a real potential out there,” Cetron said.