All Economic Ties With Soviets on Hold, Bush Says : U.S. reaction: Toughening its stand, the Administration steps up the pressure on ‘illegal coup.’

President Bush, convinced that economic and political pressure will help spur the eventual collapse of the Soviet coup that toppled President Mikhail S. Gorbachev, declared Tuesday that the Western allies will deny aid to the Soviet Union’s deteriorating economy unless the legal government is restored.

Toughening his stance against the hard-liners who seized power in the Kremlin early Monday, Bush told a White House press conference that the new Soviet regime cannot solve the country’s mounting economic problems without aid from the West and cooperation from Eastern Europe. “And they’re not going to get it under existing conditions,” he declared.

“We’re making very clear to the coup plotters and the coup people that there will not be normal relations with the United States as long as this illegal coup remains in effect,” Bush said.

He went out of his way to express U.S. support for Boris N. Yeltsin, the popular but embattled president of the Russian republic. Yeltsin has emerged as the chief opponent of the Communist Party hard-liners who ousted Gorbachev and appear determined to thwart many of the reforms he had set in motion.

Bush, speaking to reporters here before returning to his vacation home in Kennebunkport, Me., disclosed that he had spoken by telephone with Yeltsin and had tried twice to place calls to Gorbachev, but that neither attempt had been successful.

“We respect you, you’ve been duly elected here and we pray for you and we hope that you’re successful,” the President said he told Yeltsin. “He’s a very courageous man,” Bush added. “And he says he’s convinced that the people will stand with him--and well they should.

“You don’t take freedom away from people very easily, you don’t set back democracy very easily,” the President said.

Bush’s strategy for dealing with the dramatic turn of events in Moscow rests in part on a consensus among U.S. intelligence analysts that the coup was ill-planned, has already lost momentum and is unlikely to survive beyond a few months, especially if economic conditions worsen.

“The consensus is that this coup is not going to succeed,” one intelligence source said. “These people are not very competent and haven’t planned it well. They weren’t decisive up front.” He added: “The economy is bad and getting worse and there’s no likelihood it can be rejuvenated.”

Earlier Tuesday, Bush swore in Robert S. Strauss as the new U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union and dispatched him to Moscow to appraise the situation there first-hand. But the President, seeking to avoid any signal that the United States might be prepared to recognize the new Soviet regime, said that Strauss will not present his credentials at the Kremlin.

Bush aides had debated as late as Monday night whether Strauss should go immediately to Moscow or delay his departure as a signal of disapproval of the coup. Sources Tuesday said that one argument for sending Strauss without delay is that, if Strauss could arrange to visit Yeltsin, it might discourage the coup leaders from seizing the Russian president.

Secretary of State James A. Baker III also left Washington Tuesday night for Brussels to confer with North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies on the Soviet crisis.

Even as he sought to increase the pressure on the junta in the Kremlin, Bush emphasized that he does not see the new crisis as an East-West confrontation. And he said that the Administration will approach it in a calm, careful manner.

“This isn’t the time to threaten militarily, or to move forces around just to show machoism,” the President said. “That’s not what’s called for here. What’s called for is diplomacy. . . . What’s called for is commitment to principle, backing those people who are committed to reform, backing the people in the Soviet Union and in the republics.”

American intelligence analysts have concluded that, in the event the coup collapses, Yeltsin is likely to emerge as the key player in Soviet politics, while Gorbachev is unlikely to be returned to power. “There is no strong sentiment for Gorbachev in Moscow or for restoring him to power,” said an intelligence source.

Bush, asked whether democratic forces other than Gorbachev might emerge in “a big role,” said there are “plenty of people who are committed” and added: “Look at the mayor of Leningrad (Anatoly Sobchak), for example.”

But he said that he would not go into the question further because it “might imply that we are turning our backs on the duly-constituted leader.”

Strauss, in an interview with The Times shortly before boarding an Air Force plane for Moscow, declined to say whether he plans to visit Yeltsin, but he said that the Russian Federation president “is one tough son of a bitch and he’ll emerge as a key player out of all this.”

His “instincts,” Strauss said, tell him that “this coup is a long way from successful, and more often than not coups fail. And a coup that tries to succeed in the face of popular will has a very rough time.”

Once he arrives in Moscow, the ambassador said, “nothing I do will in any way legitimize the coup leaders, I’ll be very specific about that. I’ll come back to Washington in three to five days and give the President a firsthand report on what I find.”

At his press conference, Bush said that Yeltsin has been encouraged by support he has received from the Soviet people and expressed gratitude for the U.S. support of him and Gorbachev.

Gorbachev’s own status is still unclear, said Bush, who declared that he does not believe the coup leaders’ claim that the Soviet leader’s health has failed.

While chances of the coup failing are difficult to evaluate, Bush said, there appears to be strong public support for constitutional government.

“President Yeltsin told me,” he said, “that he . . . thought there were 100,000 people near his building when I talked to him a few minutes ago.”

Yeltsin, he said, wants to see constitutional government and the rights of Soviet republics restored and wants to see Gorbachev restored to power.

Bush’s strong words of praise for Yeltsin reflected growing focus within the Administration on the fiery Russian president as the key in any attempt to reverse the coup.

For more than a year, Bush was deliberately cautious about establishing a direct relationship with Yeltsin, fearing that it could put him in conflict with Gorbachev. But with Gorbachev incommunicado, the Administration is openly treating Yeltsin as the man of the moment.

In another sign of U.S. support for Yeltsin, Secretary of State Baker plans to meet with the Russian leader’s foreign minister, Andrei Kozyrev, later this week, officials said.

Kozyrev, who is touring Western Europe to drum up foreign support for Yeltsin, met on Tuesday with French Foreign Minister Roland Dumas and later said: “It is no time for appeasement. We want the West to condemn the coup d’etat, and we want the West to show solidarity with the Russian Federation’s government, headed by freely and fairly elected President Boris Yeltsin.”

Bush said the whole world is concerned about the events in the Soviet Union, and only a few “predictably extreme countries,” such as Libya, Iraq and Cuba, have supported the coup.

“These are renegades,” he declared. “These are people that have been swimming against the tide of democracy. And the rest of the world appears to be very upset with this usurpation of power.”

Times staff writer Doyle McManus contributed to this report.

Profile: Robert S. Strauss

Born: Oct. 19, 1918

Birthplace: Lockhart, Tex.

Education: University of Texas, LL.B., 1941

Career highlights: Special agent FBI, 1941-45. Lawyer, Akin, Gump, Strauss, Hauer & Feld, Dallas, 1968-72. Democratic National committeeman, Texas, 1970-72. Democratic National Committee treasurer, 1970-72; chairman, 1972-76. U.S. trade negotiator, 1979-81. President Carter’s reelection campaign chairman, 1979-81. President’s representative to Mideast peace negotiations since 1981. Co-chairman, National Economic Commission, 1988.

His challenge: To go to Moscow, quickly evaluate the situation and report back to President Bush. Strauss will not present his credentials to Kremlin’s new leadership.

Quote: “Circumstances have changed rather dramatically since I accepted this assignment . . . (but) it seems to me that my mission remains basically the same, and that is to go to Moscow, to speak very clearly, to speak very plainly and, if necessary, with undiplomatic candor from time to time . . . to speak for the principles of freedom and democracy and the rule of law.”