USC, Grubb & Ellis: Real Estate Forecast Team : Projections: The university’s computer programs will apply past and current economic variables to data supplied by the firm’s brokers and researchers.

USC and Grubb & Ellis Co. have united to forecast commercial real estate trends, the brokerage firm announced Tuesday.

USC’s Lusk Center for Real Estate Development will create computer programs that will make forecasts based on past and current economic variables; Grubb & Ellis will supply the data from quarterly reports compiled by its brokers and researchers.

“We will try to predict future rental rates, vacancy rates and levels of construction of office buildings,” said Robert Bach, a research director for Grubb & Ellis’ California regional offices, based in Anaheim.

The partnership will release its first forecast at a January seminar in Los Angeles. The newly formed team plans to make annual projections about office buildings in the greater Los Angeles area--Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, Los Angeles and Orange counties.

As do other brokerages, Grubb & Ellis has published quarterly statistics and forecasts on local real estate for years. “However, USC’s excellent analytical capabilities bring a whole new level of insight and accuracy to the forecasts,” Bach said.

Phillip D. Royster, president of Grubb & Ellis’ California regional operation, called the coupling a perfect blend of talents.

“USC could not hire a force large enough to go out and get the amount of data that we can supply,” he said, “and we don’t have the expertise to develop the economic model that the Lusk Center can offer us.”

The Lusk Center is a division of the USC School of Urban and Regional Planning. Students and faculty members will devise mathematical formulas for the projections. Grubb & Ellis will pay tuition for one of the graduate students working on the project.

Tentative lenders will require more documentation in the 1990s before financing new office structures, Bach said.

“The days of easy capital are over, and decisions will be based on detailed economic analyses of the projects,” he said. “This model aims to provide that information to lenders and developers.”