Thomas Appears to Have Votes to Assure Court Seat

Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas appeared to have locked up enough votes Thursday to win confirmation as the Senate opened four days of debate on the 43-year-old black conservative’s fitness for the post.

Sen. Wyche Fowler Jr. of Georgia became the 12th Democrat to announce that he would vote to confirm the native of Pin Point, Ga. At least 40 of the 43 Republicans are considered certain to support President Bush’s nominee.

Unless some votes are changed by an unexpected development, Thomas can count on at least 52 affirmative ballots--enough to win confirmation narrowly--when the Senate votes Tuesday.

“They certainly have the votes,” said Nan Aron, director of the Alliance for Justice, a liberal group that has led the opposition to Thomas. But the opponents have not given up entirely. “We hope to change some minds over the weekend,” she said.

The Supreme Court will open its fall term Monday with only eight justices. But Thomas is expected to take the bench by Oct. 15, when the court begins its second week of hearing cases.

He may, however, hold the dubious distinction of receiving the most negative votes of any justice in Supreme Court history.

In 1971, William H. Rehnquist won confirmation as an associate justice by a 68-26 vote. After being nominated as chief justice by Ronald Reagan in 1986, Rehnquist was confirmed by a 65-33 vote, receiving the most negative votes ever cast against a nominee who ultimately won confirmation.

Senate aides who followed the debate closely Thursday estimated that negative votes would number “in the low 30s,” while Aron predicted that more than 35 negative votes would be cast. To be confirmed, a nominee must receive affirmative votes from a simple majority of those voting.

The Judiciary Committee’s 7-7 vote on Thomas surprised and dismayed his supporters. While it did not lead to an unraveling of his support among Republicans and southern Democrats, it assured that Thomas would not receive an endorsement anything like the 90-9 vote for Judge David H. Souter last year.

With little suspense over the outcome, senators took turns speaking to an almost empty chamber Thursday.

Republicans praised Thomas as a hard-working, independent-minded judge who has been criticized largely because he does not adhere to a liberal orthodoxy.

“The opponents of Clarence Thomas . . . are all for the advancement of minority individuals, so long as those individuals stick to the checklist of politically acceptable ideas about civil rights,” said Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa).

Opponents said that Thomas was unqualified and showed signs of being a conservative extremist.

“This nominee does not possess any recognizable record of distinction within the various circles of the legal world, be it as a judge or as a lawyer or as a legal scholar,” said Sen. Claiborne Pell (D-R.I.).

Though Fowler’s announcement Thursday seemed to assure victory for Thomas, the Georgia senator did not give the nominee a wholehearted endorsement.

“I do want to stress that this decision has not been an easy one. My vote is not cast without some doubt,” Fowler said. “In the final analysis, my vote is essentially one of hope, based on what I consider to be Judge Thomas’ promise--the hope that Clarence Thomas will demonstrate the same independence, the same self-reliance and the same promise that have been the hallmarks of his struggle in his career.”