THE PADRES: BEYOND ’91 : Time for Trader Joe to Get Back to the Future : Baseball: Padres exceeded expectations in 1991, but GM McIlvaine knows he must make some more moves if they are to contend in 1992.

Perhaps it all began with that winter phone call. It was from Herk Robinson, general manager of the Kansas City Royals. He was calling Joe McIlvaine, Padre general manager, with one final proposal.

Robinson was offering power-hitting outfielder Danny Tartabull for infielder/outfielder Bip Roberts. One for one. Mano y mano . No extras involved.

McIlvaine’s instincts told him to pull the trigger. It was the deal of a lifetime. He wasn’t wild about Roberts, anyway, and had sought Tartabull’s services since the outfielder played for Seattle.

“I wanted to do it, I really did,” McIlvaine said this week.

Then he became timid. There already was backlash from the monstrous deal with Toronto, in which McIlvaine parted with popular players Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter. Fans wrote letters imploring him not to trade Roberts. The owners advised against it. There was hardly a soul in the city limits who endorsed it.

McIlvaine turned it down . . . and the Padres paid the price all season. While Roberts was injured off and on most of the season, playing in only 116 games, Tartabull became one of the most feared hitters in the American League.

“Timing is everything,” McIlvaine said, shaking his head, “and the timing was not right at the time. Obviously, we could have used him.”

McIlvaine, determined to build a contender, won’t make that mistake again.

In fact, the Padres, according to sources, still seek to capture what might have been, having made Tartabull one of their top priorities in the off-season. They will do everything in their power to sign him.

“We need a No. 5 hitter,” McIlvaine said. “We’ve got to have someone hit behind Fred (McGriff). I think that’s imperative.”

So, is the interest in Tartabull reciprocal?

“Oh, man, you better believe it,” Tartabull said this week. “I mean, I wanted to play there so bad during the winter when I heard the trade talks, and I was so disappointed when it didn’t happen.

“But they’re still my No. 1 choice. If all things are equal, that’s where I want to go.”

The only difference this time is that instead of signing Tartabull to a three-year, $9-million contract as they might have done a year ago, the asking price figures to be at least four years at $15 million.

Timing, indeed, is everything, isn’t it?

Although the Padres exceeded expectations this season, finishing in third with a winning record, there’s a strong possibility today will be the final game in a Padre uniform for many of the players.

“If we go into spring training with the same guys we have now, it’s going to be a big mistake,” McGriff said. “We’ve got to make changes.

“I hope we don’t let the last month fool us. We were winning because a lot of teams were experimenting. We’ve still got holes, plenty of them.

“We need to find a power hitter, badly. In this league, you can’t hope to string along three or four hits, it’s too hard to score runs. We need that home-run hitter. I know Danny pretty well from the American League, and I’m telling you, he’d be perfect.

“Believe me, you’d see a big difference in this team.”

McIlvaine does not want to alarm the public--or the players--but, according to sources, there are three high-profile players you won’t see in Yuma next spring:

1) Roberts: There’s little chance of his return next season. The Padres, who attempted to play him at second base and center field, became exasperated by his mood swings and nagging injuries.

“I don’t want people to go around saying we’re trying to move him,” McIlvaine said, “but many teams have asked about him. It’s a possibility.”

2) Catcher Benito Santiago: He had perhaps the finest season of his career, hitting 17 homers and driving in 87 runs. No other catcher in baseball caught as many games--152. Yet, the Padres are not willing to shell out the money Santiago will command.

“It’s going to depend on whether he asks for an exorbitant salary,” McIlvaine said. “If it’s too high, we may be forced to trade him. But we don’t have to trade him. He still belongs to us for ’92.”

Although McIlvaine and Scott Boras, Santiago’s agent, have not met to discuss Santiago’s asking price, sources say it will be at least four years at $18 million. The Padres aren’t expected to offer more than $14 million. Since he’s eligible for free agency at the end of the 1992 season, the Padres will unload him before he walks without compensation.

3) Reliever Craig Lefferts: The Padres believe Lefferts is nothing more than a setup man. He is 1-6 with a 3.99 ERA and makes $1.75 million. They can use his salary to help acquire free agents.

Said Lefferts, who has been bothered by a hip injury that occurred in May when he slipped on his patio: “From everything Joe McIlvaine has said, I don’t fit into his prototype mold of a closer. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if I’m traded.”

Plenty of others will exit, too. Starter Dennis Rasmussen and pitcher Atlee Hammaker, each of whom are free agents, will not be invited back. Outfielders Jerald Clark and Thomas Howard also are expected to be tossed aside. And infielders Paul Faries and Scott Coolbaugh no longer fit in the Padres’ plans, with Craig Shipley becoming their top utility infielder.

Sources say the Padres have only five players they would balk at trading: McGriff, right fielder Tony Gwynn and starters Bruce Hurst, Andy Benes and Greg Harris.

So who might be on the Padres’ wish list?

- “Finding a closer is our No. 1 objective,” McIlvaine said. “If I could have one wish, it would be finding that guy.”

Say hello to Randy Myers of the Cincinnati Reds.

McIlvaine traded him once when he was with the Mets, and although he’s not crazy about Myers’ Rambo routine, his arm is one of the best in the game. Look for the Padres to trade for him.

- “I want some power in the lineup,” McIlvaine said. “We’ve got to protect Fred.”

Indeed, although McGriff hit 31 homers with a career-high 102 RBIs, he walked 106 times, 26 intentionally. The most telling statistic was that of McGriff’s 31 homers, 17 were solos and eight were two-run homers. No wonder the Padres scored fewer runs than any team in the league except Montreal and Houston.

Say hello to Tartabull, who hit 31 homers, drove in 100 runs and batted .318 through Friday. Most impressive, the No. 5 hitter in the Royals’ lineup this season batted a cumulative .231, and Tartabull still was able to put up monstrous numbers.

The Padres’ biggest task in acquiring Tartabull is that they’ll compete against the Angels for his services.

- “I’d like to find a third baseman or second baseman,” McIlvaine said.

Say hello to free-agent third baseman Steve Buechele or free-agent second baseman Mariano Duncan. Buechele is the finest third baseman on the open market, and the acquisition of Duncan could prevent shortstop Tony Fernandez from leaving.

If they sign Duncan, the Padres probably would try a platoon of Tim Teufel and Jack Howell at third base. They combined for 20 home runs this season.

- The Padres would like to get their hands on center fielder Eric Davis of the Cincinnati Reds, and might attempt a titanic trade with the Reds that would bring them Davis and Myers in the same package.

- There are plenty of other scenarios. They still have interest in acquiring another starter and probably will talk to Kansas City about right-hander Kevin Appier. Outfielder Rickey Henderson of the Oakland Athletics is available, and the Padres are sure to make a call.

Could this be the Padres’ 1992 opening-day lineup?

SS: Tony Fernandez

RF: Tony Gwynn

LF: Danny Tartabull

1B: Fred McGriff

CF: Eric Davis

3B: Steve Buechele or Tim Teufel/Jack Howell

2B: Mariano Duncan

C: Joe Oliver

P: Bruce Hurst

Closer: Randy Myers

“It’s going to be very interesting to see what San Diego does,” one National League executive said. “What they do in the off-season could put them into immediate contention, or delay their plan for two years.”

Perhaps the Padres’ biggest stumbling block to the National League West title is that they compete in the same division as the Dodgers, Atlanta Braves and San Francsico Giants, each of whom has payrolls exceeding $30 million.

The Padres, who play in one of the smaller television markets, have little choice but to stretch their budget. Their payroll was $22 million last season. According to projections, the team will lose about $800,000 this season.

At a board meeting last week, they decided the payroll can be raised slightly--although ticket prices will not be hiked--but still can not exceed about $27 million.

That would allow them to pursue Tartabull, but not Bobby Bonilla of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who probably will command at least $25 million. They also might be able to squeeze Duncan in their budget, but perhaps not Buechele and Tartabull.

The reason the Padres might be more active in the free-agent market than any time in their history, however, is that they’ll have $12.08 million from the expansion pool. Although the money won’t be paid until the winter of 1992, the Padres might use that money for free agency now before everyone else jumps into the market in a year.

“We can not afford to have the same payroll as the Dodgers,” Padre chairman Tom Werner said. “We’d like to have the best team we can, but I’m very sensitive to the fact that people are strapped financially now.

“But there are creative ways to spend money on players, and I’m anxiously looking forward to next season. Imagine what this team would have done this year just without all of the injuries.”

Then again, imagine what might have developed if the Padres had not used the first half of the year to experiment.

Come on, you remember Shawn Abner . . . Calvin Schiraldi . . . Jim Presley . . . Wes Gardner . . . Eric Nolte . . . Marty Barrett . . . Steve Rosenberg . . . Mike Aldrete.

“You wonder what would have happened if we had tried to win those games, instead of just checking everyone out,” McGriff said.

Most of the experiments fizzled. Jerald Clark (.231, 10 homers, 46 RBIs) was not the answer in left. Thomas Howard has raw talent but lacks the instincts in center. Lefferts and Larry Andersen were barely adequate as co-closers, particularly because of Andersen’s nagging neck problems. Presley, Barrett and Aldrete were busts. And the Padres learned you can’t have a successful bench without at least a couple of veterans.

The only experiment that worked was Greg Harris, who made the conversion from being a reliever to a starter. Although Harris missed six weeks with tendinitis in his right elbow, he returned to post a 9-5 record and 2.23 ERA--that despite losing velocity off his fastball.

With the possible exception of Manager Greg Riddoch’s success, the biggest surprises were pitcher Mike Maddux and outfielder Darrin Jackson. Maddux wasn’t even in the major league camp until the final week of spring training, and Jackson was never given a shot at a starting job.

Maddux, though, emerged as the Padres’ most consistent reliever, with a 2.54 ERA in 63 games. Jackson, given a chance in July after everyone else failed, batted .263 with 20 homers and 47 RBIs.

“We found out about a lot of people,” Riddoch said. “I think now we have firm answers in our mind about all of our players. We can make judgements on all of our personnel.”

The Padres still have one experiment lurking in the back of their minds. They’re intrigued about reliever Jeremy Hernandez. This is the kid they brought up in September, and Santiago and catcher Tom Lampkin will tell you he has the best arsenal of pitches on the staff. Hernandez has yet to allow an earned run in 14 1/3 innings.

“Every time we’ve seen him, he’s been impressive,” Riddoch said. “We’re bringing him along slowly, but I don’t see why he couldn’t be our stopper sometime next season.”

The Padres might be gambling a bit with their rotation next season, too, but as it stands they’ll have Ed Whitson and Ricky Bones fill out their fourth and fifth spots. Whitson has not started a game since July 5 because of elbow surgery, and Bones has made only 11 career starts in the big leagues.

And one of the biggest experiments next season might involve Gwynn. The Padres are considering moving Gwynn from his customary No. 3 spot in the lineup. If they acquire Tartabull, it’s possible Gwynn could be used fifth. If not, the Padres may bat him second.

Gwynn, after all, batted .380 with runners in scoring position last season--.370 in that situation with two outs. McGriff batted .182 with two outs and runners in scoring position.

Gwynn, who prefers the No. 2 spot, says he simply wants to come back and prove that the first half of the 1991 season was not a fluke. Gwynn hit .358 with 48 RBIs the first half of the season, but then batted .237 with 14 RBIs after July 11, ending his season prematurely with arthroscopic knee surgery.

“It was a funny season,” Gwynn said. “This team probably exceeded everybody’s expectations, but it wasn’t that high to begin with, so where does that get you? . . .

“I know it’s going to be a long winter, but when spring comes, I really think we’ll contend. Let’s face it, it’s been seven years since we last won anything, and that’s a long time.

“Man, it ain’t a lot of fun playing this long, and coming back year after year without winning. God, I just don’t how much longer we’ll have to wait.

“Sooner or later, it’s got to come.

“Doesn’t it?”

RIDDOCH RETAINED; PADRES WIN

Before their 10-7 victory over Cincinnati, the Padres announced Manager Greg Riddoch had agreed to terms on a one-year contract. C17A