Persistent Rain With No Sign of Sunshine : Foreign successes aside, Bush needs to work on the economy
Despite its brilliant foreign-policy successes, the Administration of George Walker Bush has got to start doing more for America. The economy of the United States has its own very serious problems. Peace in the Middle East would be a great prize indeed for the world, but there are malnourished babies on the West Coast as well as on the West Bank.
It’s true that empty food shelves strike the eye in Russia’s cities, but so do statistics here at home that show the number of Americans receiving federal food stamps jumping to a record level.
The U.S. economy is just not getting the job done. Worse yet, consumers remain enveloped in pessimism; few Americans want to spring for a new car or washer-dryer because they see workers being laid off all around them.
It is a general misery--a falling rain--through which no spot of sunshine is visible.
And it is a misery with a broadening base; it is not confined to the lower economic spectrum but has spread into the middle class as well. “As the economy begins to sputter,” Newsweek writes in its cover story this week, “the great middle class . . . is worried about keeping up with mortgage payments, paying for kids to go to college and even putting away enough money for retirement nest eggs.”
The most immediate problem is jobs; the two coasts are feeling the unemployment fever more than any place else. By and large, firms are either not hiring or are laying workers off. The effect is to decelerate the economy even more--and add to the pessimism. Help-wanted ads are down in many newspapers--a sign of fewer jobs.
Recession is not forever, of course. Business inevitably has its cyclic ups and downs. The problem is that while many business leaders agree that the economy has hit bottom, very few believe that the upward climb has begun. The third-quarter gross national product statistics showed a slight improvement (see chart), prompting U.S. Commerce Secretary Robert A. Mosbacher to declare the recession over. But the fear is that it was no more than a temporary uptick--that the economy in fact is still mired in mud.
Even the most wishful thinkers know that the President doesn’t have some sort of unilateral power that can quickly fix the economy. Top officials can’t do everything. And it’s only fair to point out that the national Democratic Party certainly hasn’t pursued a workable remedy to what ails this economy.
But it is also fair to say that the American people hold the President--Republican or Democrat--responsible for general economic conditions.
“Real disposable income (income minus taxes) is lower today than when President Bush took office,” wrote columnist George F. Will. “During his first term, the economy probably will have the lowest average annual growth rate of any presidency since the Depression.” It is now in the political interest of Bush to travel abroad less and focus more on the problem of the domestic economy. That is now America’s No. 1 crisis.
Where Will It Go Next? Percent of change in gross national product at an annual rate, adjusted for inflation. 1990 quarters* 2*: +0.4% 3*: +1.4% 4*: -1,6% 1991 quarters* 1*: -2.8% 2*: -0.5% 3*: +2.4%
