Economic Woes Cut Bush’s Support, Times Poll Finds : Survey: Popularity rating falls to 53%. Economy is seen as shaky by 87%, and 26% expect to spend less.
Worries about job security, home values and the overall U.S. economy have chipped away at public support for President Bush, pulling down his approval rating to 53% from a level of 65% just two months ago, according to a new Los Angeles Times Poll.
From shopping malls to the workplace, the jittery outlook seems to have taken a measurable toll on Bush’s popularity, which is now approaching the lowest level of his presidency, the national survey found. The share of the public that approves of the President’s handling of the economy has dipped to 29% from 42% in September.
“The bad economy is having the effect on President Bush that it has had on nearly every President--it’s eroding his popularity,” said John Brennan, director of The Times Poll. “You can’t have the kind of consumer confidence numbers that we’ve been having for this long without doing some political damage.”
For example, 87% of those surveyed described the U.S. economy as shaky, up from 79% in September. And, in what could be a dark harbinger for retailers, 26% of consumers said they expected to spend less money in the next three months--up from 17% in a September survey by The Times.
The news wasn’t all bad: The number who describe their personal finances as secure--63%--has shown little decline since last April. Similarly, the share of the public that says the United States is in a recession--although a high 85%--did not rise in the new survey.
Also, some signals were mixed. Half of those surveyed said they planned to spend less on Christmas gifts this year, a thrifty attitude compared to earlier surveys. Yet, when asked a separate question about their holiday spending budgets this year, two-thirds said that they will spend at least $250, nearly identical to findings of Gallup polls in late 1989 and 1990.
Still, the glimmers do not offset an overall downbeat appraisal, one that has potentially negative implications for both the economy and President Bush.
“I’d have been very surprised if any poll taken now would show an exuberant consumer,” said Joseph A. Wahed, chief economist at Wells Fargo Bank in San Francisco. “I’d expect the polls to show a consumer who is somewhat dejected, very price conscious and very cautious.”
The survey was taken at a time of widespread anxiety about jobs and amid a flurry of bleak reports that could be signaling a renewed slump in the U.S. economy. Efforts by the Federal Reserve Board to lower interest rates have yet to breathe life into the economy, and surveys of consumer confidence last month detected a plunge in public expectations.
The problems are taking a toll on the President’s political standing. The decline in approval of his economic stewardship--to 29% from 42% in September, continues a slide from the 45% recorded in June and 51% last March. In the new survey, 64% said they disapproved of his handling of the economy, compared to 50% in September.
Besides undermining the President’s overall approval rating, economic woes appear to be fueling a more spirited opposition than Bush has experienced in the past: 21% of the public now disapprove strongly of his performance, the highest level of his presidency, up from 14% in September. Overall, 41% disapprove of his performance.
Only in the area of foreign affairs does the President still get a strong approval rating, although he has slipped a bit here, as well, with 67% awarding high marks compared to 71% in September, 78% in April and 86% in March, shortly after the U.S. military victory in the Persian Gulf.
Up to now, Bush has been a very popular commander in chief. His ratings, although down, are not unusually bad for a President at this stage of his term. He stands about where Richard M. Nixon and Ronald Reagan were at this point in their presidencies and is significantly ahead of where Jimmy Carter or Gerald R. Ford stood.
“Obviously, these are serious numbers for a President as he enters his reelection year, but he’s far from finished politically,” Brennan said.
Among the various economic issues that worry the public, the weak real estate market has emerged as a source of concern for homeowners. Only 30% of homeowners expect their property to go up in value this year, 16% think it will go down and most of the rest foresee stagnant prices, The Times Poll found.
Such modest expectations are a sharp change from the past, when values seemed to climb inexorably: 55% of American homeowners expected their property to rise in value in mid-1990, according to a poll taken at the time by ABC News and Money magazine. The notion of falling real estate prices seemed alien back then; just 4% expected values to drop.
Even now, the attitudes tend to vary by region, with Westerners still the most optimistic: 38% of Westerners said their homes are still rising in value, followed by 33% in the Midwest, 31% in the South and just 21% in the East.
“People feel poorer, just as if you had a portfolio of stocks that went down in value,” Wahed explained. “It’s paper value, but you still feel poorer, and you restrain yourself from going on any spending sprees.”
After falling into recession in the middle of 1990, the U.S. economy seems to have registered modest growth after mid-1991, leading most economists to declare the recession over. Recent indicators have looked unexpectedly weak, however, sparking worries that the economy is slipping back downhill.
The Times Poll documents some of these concerns, ranging from fears of unemployment to a monthly problem with household bills to more generalized worries about economic security.
When Americans were asked to list the most serious problems facing the country, the economy far outranked all other concerns. Twenty-four percent named it as the major problem, with the related issue of unemployment cited by 13% and ranking second. Such problems as drugs, crime, AIDS and health care were named by substantially fewer people.
Similarly, unemployment emerged as the major concern when people were asked to name the nation’s most important economic problem. It was cited by 32%, followed, at 10%, by foreign trade--an issue that includes international competition and indirectly may be tied to joblessness--and the U.S. budget deficit, pointed to by 8%.
“When people get concerned about unemployment, that has political ramifications,” Brennan said.
In the poll, 37% said someone in their household had lost work time within the last 12 months from causes as diverse as being fired to having hours cut back to being laid off temporarily. Fifteen percent said someone in their home had been fired.
In addition, 71% said there are few jobs available in their region, compared to 23% who said job availability seemed normal and just 4% who thought jobs were plentiful. Also, 37% expect the job situation to deteriorate, the poll found.
Paying the bills emerged as the most often mentioned financial problem faced by households: 17% cited it as their most serious financial concern, with 10% pointing to unemployment, 10% to health care, 9% to inflation and 7% to housing.
“You’ve got a combination of things that really amount to a crunch on people,” Brennan said.
Fifteen percent of credit card holders said that, within the last few months, they had been forced to rely on their credit cards to help pay the monthly bills. At the same time, 49% said that interest rates were an important factor in their decision whether or not to use credit cards for a transaction; 41% said interest rates were not an important factor.
A recent effort in the Senate to cap credit card interest rates set off a political and financial furor, helping push the Dow Jones industrial average down 120 points earlier this month.
Taken together, the public attitudes on the economy are approaching the low level of 1982, a recession year, and contrast starkly with the situation that Bush faced in his 1988 election campaign.
For example, 53% of those surveyed used the word bad to describe the economy and just 3% used the word good. In November, 1982, 57% said it was bad and 6% said it was good. And in September, 1988, when Bush’s election was two months away, just 21% of Americans thought the economy was bad; 22% described it as good.
The poll underlines the regional nature of hard times, with the East still exhibiting the gloomiest attitudes. About 42% of Easterners say the nation is in a serious recession, compared to 35% of Westerners, 30% of Southerners and 28% in the Midwest.
The Times Poll of 1,709 adults was conducted between Nov. 21 and 24. The findings are considered accurate within a range of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
How the Poll Was Conducted
The Los Angeles Times Poll interviewed 1,709 adult Americans nationwide, by telephone, Nov. 21 to 24. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list that includes all telephone exchanges in the United States. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Results were adjusted slightly to conform with census figures on variables such as sex, race and national origin, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher.
Scaling Back
The Times Poll: Half of all Americans plan less holiday spending this year; nearly half of credit card holders say they are charging less.
* Compared to last year, would you say this holiday season you will spend more, less or about the same on presents for friends and family?
Less: 51%
Same: 35%
More: 13%
Don’t give gifts: 1%
* Compared to a year ago, are you charging more, less or about the same amount on your credit and charge cards (asked of the 60% of Americans who hold such cards.)
Less: 47%
Same: 37%
More: 12%
Stopped using cards: 4%
Bush Ratings Down
Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?
1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 Nov. Sept. June April March Right Direction 23% 40% 38% 48% 55% Wrong Track 67 49 52 43 34 Don’t Know 10 11 10 9 11
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as President?
1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1990 Nov. Sept. June April March Nov. Approve 53% 65% 74% 82% 84% 61% Disapprove 41 29 23 16 13 34 Don’t Know 6 6 3 2 3 5
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling the nation’s economy?
1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 Nov. Sept. June April March Approve 29% 42% 45% 49% 51% Disapprove 64 50 46 44 41 Don’t Know 7 8 9 7 8
How would you describe the nation’s economy today? Would you say it is good, or bad or somewhere in between?
1991 1990 1988 1983 1982 Nov. Dec. Sept. Nov. Nov. Good 3% 6% 22% 18% 6% Somewhere 43 52 55 57 36 in between Bad 53 41 21 24 57 Don’t know 1 1 2 1 1
Source: Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,709 adults nationwide Nov. 21-24, 1991
