Jobless Rate for October Stays at 4.9% : Employment: Total jobs in county decline from last year for the 9th consecutive month.

Orange County’s unemployment rate remained unchanged in October at 4.9%, with the economy remaining “glued to the bottom,” as one researcher put it.

Employment figures were bolstered by the last wave of school hiring for the year, with nearly 5,000 education jobs added to government payrolls. At the same time, however, the total of jobs in the county remained below the October, 1990, total--the ninth consecutive month of year-to-year shrinkage.

Esmael Adibi, an economist at Chapman University in Orange, said the state Employment Development Department numbers show that while the county’s economy isn’t worsening, neither is it showing signs of healthy improvement.

“We are glued to the bottom right now,” said Adibi, adding that he believes that when the state updates the year’s jobless tally in March--an annual ritual--”the numbers will be worse than what these monthly reports show.”

Economists at Chapman’s Center for Economic Research estimate that the updated numbers will show an overall 2% decline in county jobs this year.

That would make 1991 the first year since 1982 in which the number of county jobs shrank from the prior year.

Adibi said he doesn’t expect the county’s employment scene to show improvement until mid-1992.

That happened in October when, despite the boost in education jobs, the number of unemployed workers in the county rose by 900 to a monthly total of 68,200, the EDD reported Tuesday.

The number of jobless rose while the unemployment rate stayed flat because the county’s total labor pool swelled as school workers--many of whom are dropped from the tally during the summer--returned to the work force.

In all, Orange County employers added 4,900 education jobs and 2,000 service industry jobs to their payrolls last month. But the gains were partly offset by the loss of 1,400 construction industry jobs, 400 wholesale trade jobs and 200 jobs in the finance, insurance and real estate industries.

Between October, 1990, and October, 1991, county employment shrank by 11,000 jobs, a 0.9% decline, to 1.216 million jobs from 1.227 million.

Hardest hit have been the construction industry, down 7.2% for a loss of 4,800 positions; manufacturing, down 3.4%, and retail trades, down 1.3%.

Business and personal service employment increased by 1.5%, or 5,100 jobs, over the 12-month period, mainly in health services and education. Orange County’s October jobless rate remained the lowest in Southern California. The Los Angeles County and statewide unemployment rates for the month both were both 7.8%, and the national rate was 6.8%.

Losing Ground Orange County employers have trimmed payrolls each month since January compared to the corresponding months in 1990. The result is what economics call negative job growth. Andthe definition of a local recession, according to Chapman University’s Center for EconomicResearch, is two or more consecutive quarters of negative job growth. Job Growth In percentage change from the same month of the prior year: Jan. 1990: 2.7% Oct. 1991: -0.9% Unemployment Rate In percent, by month: Oct. 1989: 2.9% Oct. 1991: 4.9%

Low, High Spots The construction and manufacturing industries have lost thousands of jobs in the two years ended Oct. 31, while there were big gains in the service sector, especially in tourism-related jobs. Employment By Industry In thousands of jobs:

Oct.1989 Oct.1991 % Change Construction 71.1 62.2 -12.5 Manufacturing Total 259.0 244.1 -5.8 Nondurable goods 71.4 72.7 1.8 Durable goods 187.6 171.4 -8.6 Primary 24.1 23.5 -2.5 /fabricated metal products Machinery 31.4 31.9 1.6 (except electrical) Electrical 60.3 37.4 -37.9 /electronic machines Transportation 31.1 26.2 -15.8 equipment Instruments 16.8 33.7 100.1 & related products Transportation 34.4 38.5 11.9 /public utilities Wholesale trade 77.7 81.4 4.7 Retail trade 214.9 217.9 1.4 Finance 91.6 103.3 12.8 /Insurance/Real Estate Services 296.2 335.1 13.1 Government 123.1 128.1 4.1 Tourism- 122.6 131.7 7.4 related industry TOTAL 1,205.2 1,216.1 0.9% (all industries