Times Poll Finds Prosperity Issue Hampers Democrats : Survey: Party is within range of Bush but announced candidates have not made much impression on public.

Anxiety over the nation’s economy has brought the Democrats within range of President Bush in the 1992 campaign, but the party remains hindered by doubts about its ability to produce prosperity, a new Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Less than three months before the first primary, in New Hampshire, the survey shows that none of the six announced Democratic candidates have made a significant impression on the public. And it found that New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, who has been contemplating a candidacy, would be an instant front-runner if he entered the race for the Democratic nomination.

President Bush, meanwhile, holds a commanding lead over two potential primary challengers: conservative columnist Patrick J. Buchanan and former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke, a Louisiana state representative. Among registered Republicans and independents leaning toward the GOP, 84% of those surveyed say they would back Bush in a primary, compared with just 8% for Buchanan and 2% for Duke.

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, surveyed 1,709 adults from Nov. 21 through Nov. 24. It generally has a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points; the sampling error is 5 percentage points for questions asked of only registered Democrats or Republicans.

The survey starkly demonstrates that a general election virtually conceded to President Bush in the afterglow of the Persian Gulf War victory earlier this year now appears very much in play.

On the one hand, Bush has a solid lead when matched against the best-known Democrat--Cuomo. But on each of three separate questions, less than a majority of Americans say they are currently willing to back Bush for a second term.

When asked if Bush deserves to be reelected, those polled split closely, backing the President by a 47%-41% margin. Likewise, just 41% of those surveyed said they definitely or probably would vote for Bush in 1992, compared with 34% who said they were more likely to back the eventual Democratic nominee and 25% who described themselves as undecided. Only one-fifth of those surveyed said they definitely planned to vote for Bush.

What is more striking, just 33% of those surveyed said the GOP “should continue to hold the presidency after the next election,” but 47% said they thought it was “time for a change” to the Democrats. Independents favored the Democrats on this question by 42% to 34%.

Bush’s opponents saw sweeping significance in the numbers.

“People are coming to a consciousness of Bush maybe not just as a failed President but as the embodiment of a failed era,” Democratic pollster Stanley B. Greenberg said.

Even Republican pollster Fred Steeper, who conducts surveys for the White House, conceded: “We’re in a competitive situation with the Democrats. It’s no longer a landslide situation; it’s no longer a walkaway.”

Steeper, Greenberg and other analysts cautioned that predicting election results a year before the vote can be like trying to forecast the weather 12 months in advance. In Gallup polls taken at this point in 1983, for instance, President Ronald Reagan ran evenly in test heats against Democrat Walter F. Mondale--who was eventually crushed in a record 49-state landslide.

Still, many Republican professionals expressed concern about the trends in the public’s attitude toward Bush.

In the new Times survey, 53% of Americans approve of Bush’s overall performance--exactly the same percentage as had approved of Reagan at the same point in his presidency. But Reagan’s approval rating was rising from a nadir of 35% in January, 1983, on the strength of an accelerating economic recovery.

Bush’s numbers, buffeted by continuing economic distress, have been moving in the opposite direction; as recently as June, in the waning glow of the victory over Iraq, three-fourths of the public approved of his job performance. Those strongly approving of Bush’s performance have dropped to just 16%.

The Times Poll indicates that Bush--already an underachiever in the public’s eyes on domestic problems--is still losing ground on the home front. Although he continues to win applause for his management of foreign policy, just 31% of those polled approve of the way Bush has handled “problems here at home”--down from 46% in June. Just 29% approve of his economic performance--down from 42% in September.

What is perhaps even more damaging, just 42% say Bush is concerned “a great deal” or “quite a lot” about the problems of average Americans, but 57% say he cares only “some” or “not much.”

For Democrats, these signs of political weakness in the White House are tempered by sharp reminders that the public retains substantial doubts about their own capacity to govern. Just 11% of those surveyed expressed “a lot” of confidence in the Democratic-controlled Congress, while a resounding 86% said they had only some or very little confidence in the legislative branch.

When asked who is to blame for the economy’s difficulties, nearly three times as many respondents picked the Congress as the White House--although the largest number--29%--pinned the blame on the Reagan Administration.

Most important, despite the widespread anxiety about the economy--just 14% of those polled said they expected conditions to improve in the next three months--the public is not convinced that the Democrats could do a better job of governing. By a 40%-32% margin, Americans still look on the GOP as the party best able to keep the nation “prosperous in the years to come.”

That margin represents a dramatic erosion from the 2-1 lead the Republicans held on this key question in March. And, among voters earning between $20,000 and $40,000 a year, the Democrats have drawn even. But, over the last 40 years, the Democrats have won the White House only when they held a substantial lead as the party of prosperity.

“The Democrats aren’t going to win this election simply by inheriting this recession,” said Greenberg. “They are going to have to establish their credibility on the economy.”

So far, the six announced candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination have not established much recognition, much less credibility, with the public. Nearly half of all voters surveyed--and fully 37% of those considered likely to vote in the Democratic primaries--have no opinion about any of the six contenders.

Four of the candidates--Sens. Tom Harkin of Iowa and Bob Kerrey of Nebraska, former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton--are each known by one-fifth or less of Democrats and independents who lean toward the party. The two best-known contenders are former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. and Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, and they lead in a race that does not include Cuomo, with the support of 20% and 10% of likely voters, respectively. Clinton has 9%, followed by Kerrey at 5%, and Tsongas and Harkin at 4%.

Most political professionals put little stock in such numbers before the first votes are cast, noting that the media barrage following success in New Hampshire and other early contests can instantly transform a dark horse into a household name. “In November, 1975, Jimmy Carter was at 2% in the Gallup poll; I know that because I carry it around in my briefcase,” said Dennis Kanin, campaign manager for Tsongas.

But the Times Poll shows that Cuomo, if he entered the race, would begin with a substantial advantage in name recognition and a sizable early lead. Thirty-eight percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they would back Cuomo for the party’s presidential nomination--over three times as many as would support Brown, his nearest competitor. Cuomo runs well among both men and women and whites and blacks; indeed, he draws more black support than Wilder, the nation’s only black governor. But Cuomo shows less strength among younger voters and Southerners.

Matched against Cuomo in a hypothetical general election, Bush leads by 56% to 33%. Even among the roughly 3 in 5 poll respondents who have opinions on both men, the margin remains essentially unchanged. Still, Steeper and other analysts caution that these numbers do not reflect the likelihood that Cuomo’s appeal would grow if he entered the race and became more familiar to voters.

The opposite situation applies to another potential candidate: David Duke. The poll found Duke is extremely well-known but has little appeal. Four-fifths of those surveyed have an opinion about him. Of those, just 10% view him favorably, and two-thirds view him negatively. His image is virtually no better among Republicans than among Democrats or independents. In a hypothetical three-way general election race, Duke draws only 5% of the vote against Bush and Cuomo, who attract 54% and 32%, respectively.

But the number of Americans who say they like Duke’s policies--which have focused on racially tinged themes of opposition to affirmative action and welfare--rises to 20%, which suggests that he may have some room to change the public’s current doubts about him.

Meanwhile, some analysts caution that Buchanan’s challenge could cause Bush more problems than the current poll numbers suggest by embarrassing the President in economically scarred New Hampshire.

But, although Bush’s approval rating has slipped 22 points among conservatives and 17 points among Republicans in the last two months, he still gets positive marks from more than three-fifths of conservatives and three-fourths of Republicans--high enough grades to suggest that the receptive audience within the GOP for a primary challenge is limited.

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll interviewed 1,709 adult Americans nationwide, by telephone, from Nov. 21 to 24. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list that includes all telephone exchanges in the United States. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Results were adjusted slightly to conform with census figures on variables such as sex, race and national origin, age, education and household size. General election presidential preference results are based on the 1,296 registered voters in the sample; Democratic primary preference results are based on a sample of 595 registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents while Republican primary preferences are based on the 582 registered voters who are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the total sample and for all registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For the samples of registered Democrats and Republicans, the error margin is plus or minus 5 points. The error margin for other subgroups may be somewhat higher.

Election Preferences

General election preferences among all registered voters George Bush: 56% Mario Cuomo: 33% Wouldn’t vote: 4% Don’t know: 7%

Democratic primary preferences among registered Democrats and independents leaning toward the Democrats

With Cuomo Without Cuomo Cuomo 38% Brown 11% 20% Wilder 7% 10% Clinton 6% 9% Kerrey 3% 5% Tsongas 2% 4% Harkin 1% 4% Wouldn’t vote 4% 7% Don’t know 28% 41%

Republican primary preferences among registered Republicans and independents leaning toward the Republicans George Bush: 84% Patrick Buchanan: 8% David Duke: 2% Wouldn’t vote: 1% Don’t know: 5% Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

The Times Poll: Trial Heat

President Bush is favored by only a small margin over an unnamed Democratic challenger. Bush definitely support: 20% probably support: 21% total: 41% Unnamed Democrat definitely support: 16% probably support: 18% total: 34% Don’t Know: 25%

The poll also found Americans are widely split over who to blame for the economic situation and what to do with money saved through defense cuts.

If national defense were cut, what should the government do with the money? Increase domestic programs: 38% Reduce taxes: 29% Reduce the deficit: 23% Something else: 7% Don’t know: 3%

Who is to blame for the economic situation today? Reagan: 29% Congress: 22% Combination: 23% Other/No one: 7% Don’t Know: 11% Bush: 8% SOURCE: Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,709 adults nationwide Nov. 21-24, 1991.