THE TIMES POLL : State Voters Favor Bush Over Top Democrats

Despite a crippling recession and a rebellious Republican Party, President Bush would comfortably carry California over either of the two leading Democrats if the 1992 election were held today, according to The Los Angeles Times Poll.

But Republican U.S. Sen. John Seymour continues to run weakly in his race, the poll found. Like many other candidates bidding for California’s two U.S. Senate seats next year, Seymour is little known to the electorate.

Republican presidential candidates have carried California in the last six elections, and in nine of the last 10 elections, and Bush--as of now--would continue that pattern, the survey showed.

In hypothetical matchups with the two potential challengers most acceptable to the state’s Democratic voters, based on this poll, Bush beats New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo by 12 points, 51% to 39%, and former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. by 24 points, 58% to 34%.

In 1988, Bush carried California over Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis by a fairly close margin of 3.5 percentage points. Six months before that election, The Times Poll showed Dukakis beating the then-vice president in California by 17 points. So a survey this far in advance of the November election merely represents a snapshot of the current situation, not a reliable barometer of the ultimate vote in November. Between now and November, the nation’s economy and the candidates’ messages and temperament will substantially affect the race, Times Poll Director John Brennan said.

For instance, half the voters interviewed by The Times Poll did not know enough about Cuomo--who has not announced whether he will run--to have any impression of him. Among those who had some opinion of the New Yorker, his hypothetical race with the President was a virtual dead heat: Bush 48%, Cuomo 47%.

More vulnerable politically than Bush in California, however, is Republican U.S. Sen. Seymour. Very few people know anything about him. More than three-fourths of the surveyed voters had no impression of the former Orange County state legislator, whom Gov. Pete Wilson appointed to the U.S. Senate as his replacement in January.

Although Seymour leads his major challenger for the Republican nomination, either of the most likely Democratic nominees would defeat him handily if the election were held today, according to the poll. State Controller Gray Davis runs ahead of the Republican incumbent by 28 points, 53% to 25%, and former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein beats him by 24 points, 54% to 30%.

Name identification clearly is the key factor in California’s two embryonic Senate races and most of the candidates possess very little of it.

In the second Senate contest, to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Alan Cranston, four of the six major contenders are so little known that the vast majority of voters cannot rate them. The two best-known contestants, the survey showed, are Democratic Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy, with 68% voter recognition, and Republican Palm Springs Mayor Sonny Bono, the former entertainer, with 62%.

The Times Poll interviewed 1,629 randomly selected California adults by telephone for four days ending Tuesday night. Among these people were 1,190 registered voters, including 517 Democrats and 486 Republicans. The margin of error for the entire sample, as well as the registered voters, is three percentage points in either direction. For just the Democrats or Republicans, the error margin is five points.

Bush’s popularity has dropped dramatically across the country in recent months as America’s euphoria over victory in the Gulf War has faded into anxiety and frustration over the dreary economy at home. Californians are even more gloomy about the recession than Americans nationwide, this survey found. Still, Bush at present appears to be holding his own in the state, which will provide 20% of the electoral votes needed to choose a President.

Bush’s job rating, among all those polled, was 50% approval and 47% disapproval--a close division and slightly more negative than the President’s marks in a nationwide Times survey two weeks ago. This is the worst job rating for Bush among Californians in more than a year. But, nevertheless, it is a much more positive grade than Republican Gov. Wilson’s, which was 36% approval and 54% disapproval.

Many Republican activists have expressed anger at Wilson for signing a record tax increase last summer and impatience with Bush for not doing more to pull the nation out of its economic slump. In fact, some longtime Republican contributors in the conservative heartland of Orange County recently met with Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, a favorite of Democratic moderates, to offer support in his party’s presidential primaries.

But 73% of the Republican voters interviewed by The Times approved of Bush’s job performance, compared to 26% who disapproved. By contrast, Wilson’s job rating among Republicans was much more precarious: 49% approval, 44% disapproval.

At this point--nearly six months before California’s June primary--Bush would easily fend off a right-wing attack from conservative columnist Patrick J. Buchanan or Louisiana State Rep. David Duke, the former Ku Klux Klan leader. In this three-way matchup, Republicans sided overwhelmingly with Bush by 81% to 10% for Buchanan and just 2% for Duke.

In a Democratic primary, Cuomo’s entry into the race clearly would hurt former Gov. Brown. With Cuomo on the ballot, The Times Poll found, the current lineup by Democratic voter preference would be Cuomo 33%, Brown 27%, Clinton 5%, Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin 3%, Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder 3%, Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey 2% and former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas 1%.

But with Cuomo out of the contest, Brown far outdistances the other candidates by 39% to 8% or less.

California voters have a much more negative impression of Brown--their governor for eight years--than they do of Cuomo, the survey showed. Those interviewed rated Cuomo 29% favorable and 20% unfavorable, with half the voters not knowing enough about the New Yorker to offer an opinion. Brown had as many admirers as Cuomo, but twice as many detractors. Impressions of him were 29% favorable and 40% unfavorable.

Across the country, according to the most recent nationwide Times survey, Brown is less known and even less liked than he is in California. Cuomo’s image and matchup with Bush also is better here than nationally.

Looking at the presidential race in California, pollster Brennan said that “the question mark at this time is the economy, which is in much worse shape now than in either the ’84 or ’88 elections. The severity of the situation in this state is demonstrated by the fact that half of the people feel we’re in a serious recession, compared to a third who felt that way in last month’s national poll.”

He pointed out that in California, Bush wallops Cuomo by 35 points among voters who rate the recession as no worse than a moderate economic setback. But among those who think this is a deep slump, Bush trails Cuomo by eight points.

Likewise in the two U.S. Senate races, the economy is the big issue for voters, although name identification is the overriding factor in the standings.

When The Times Poll asked voters what issue or problem they wanted to hear the Senate candidates discuss, more than half cited pocketbook subjects--such as unemployment (No. 1), the economy generally and the business climate.

But of the 10 major Senate candidates in the two races, only four were well enough known to generate impressions among half the voters. Three of these contenders were Democrats: 1990 gubernatorial nominee Feinstein (55% favorable, 32% unfavorable) and Controller Davis (40% favorable, 12% unfavorable) in the contest for Wilson’s former seat, and Lt. Gov. McCarthy (39% favorable, 29% unfavorable) in the race to succeed Cranston.

Mayor Bono, the former husband and singing partner of Cher, is easily the best-known candidate for the Republican nomination to replace Cranston. But the voters’ impression of him is slightly negative: 28% favorable, 34% unfavorable.

Only 1% of the surveyed voters could rate all 10 major Senate candidates.

The Times Poll found Feinstein and McCarthy to be holding big leads in the Democratic primaries, but more than a third of the voters still were undecided in the race for Cranston’s seat. Seymour led in his primary race, with more than half undecided, and the candidates were bunched closely in the other GOP contest.

The standings:

For Wilson’s former seat: Democrats--Feinstein 58%, Davis 29%. Republicans--Seymour 27%, Rep. William E. Dannemeyer of Fullerton 13%, others 4%.

For Cranston’s seat: Democrats--McCarthy 39%, Rep. Barbara Boxer of Greenbrae 21%, Rep. Mel Levine of Los Angeles 5%. Republicans--Former TV commentator Bruce Herschensohn of Los Angeles 21%, Rep. Tom Campbell of Palo Alto 17%, Bono 16%, others 2%.

The Times Poll did not match up potential general election opponents in the race for Cranston’s seat, but will in future surveys.

The survey showed that a Wilson endorsement of a Senate candidate would have little effect on the Republican electorate. The governor has been strongly supporting his protege, Seymour, in that race while remaining neutral in the other contest.

The poll also found that Wilson, despite his diminished popularity, would survive a recall movement--if it now were on the ballot--by 55% to 33%. Anti-Wilson groups are circulating petitions in an effort to force a special recall election. Democrats basically would divide their votes, but Republicans would back the governor by roughly 7 to 2.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Los Angeles Times Poll interviewed 1,629 adult Californians statewide, by telephone, Dec. 7-10. The sample included 1,190 registered voters, of whom 517 were registered Democrats and 486 registered Republicans. Telephone numbers were selected from a list which includes all telephone exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in either English or Spanish. The results were adjusted slightly to conform with census figures on variables such as sex, race and national origin, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the total sample and the sample of all registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin is somewhat higher. For example, the error margin on the results from the samples of registered Democrats and Republicans is plus or minus five points. Poll results can be affected by other factors, such as variations in question wording and the order of question presentation.

The Times Poll: California Politics Which party can do a better job handling California’s problems? (Among All Registered Voters) The Democrats: 37% The Republicans: 31% Neither: 16% Both: 6% Don’t know: 10% Democratic Presidential Primary Races (Among Registered Democrats)

With Cuomo Without Cuomo Mario Cuomo 33% Jerry Brown 27% 39% Bill Clinton 5% 8% Tom Harkin 3% 5% Douglas Wilder 3% 5% Bob Kerry 2% 6% Paul Tsongas 1% 2% Someone else 1% 1% Don’t know 25% 34%

Republican Presidential Primary Races (Among Registered Republicans) George Bush: 81% Pat Buchanan: 10% David Duke: 2% Don’t know: 2% General Election Presidential Races (Among All Registered Voters) With Cuomo... Cuomo: 39% Bush: 51% Someone else: 3% Don’t Know: 7% Without Cuomo... Brown: 34% Bush: 58% Someone else: 3% Don’t Know: 5% U.S. Senate Primary Races: Democrats (Among Registered Democrats) 2-Year Seat: Feinstein: 58% Davis: 29% Someone else: 2% Don’t know: 11% 6-Year Seat: McCarthy: 39% Boxer: 21% Levine: 5% Someone else: 2% Don’t know: 33% U.S. Senate Primary Races: Republicans (Among Registered Republicans) 2-Year Seat: Seymour: 27% Dannemeyer: 13% Allen: 3% Trinity: 1% Don’t know: 56% 6-Year Seat: Herschensohn: 21% Campbell: 17% Bono: 16% Franklin: 2% Don’t know: 44% U.S. Senate: General Election: 2-Year Seat (Among All Registered Voters) Davis: 53% Seymour: 25% Someone else: 2% Don’t know: 20% Davis: 56% Dannemeyer: 18% Someone else: 3% Don’t know: 23% Feinstein: 54% Seymour: 30% Someone else: 2% Don’t know: 14% Feinstein: 56% Dannemeyer: 26% Someone else: 2% Don’t know: 16% Candidate Impressions: U.S. Senate--Democrats

Among All Registered Voters Among Registered Dem No 2-Year Seat: Favorable Unfavorable Opinion Favorable Unfavorable Dianne Feinstein 55% 32% 13% 67% 18% Gray Davis 40% 12% 48% 46% 9% 6-Year Seat Leo McCarthy 39% 29% 32% 49% 20% Barbara Boxer 13% 7% 80% 16% 3% Mel Levine 8% 5% 87% 10% 3%

ocrats No 2-Year Seat: Opinion Dianne Feinstein 15% Gray Davis 45% 6-Year Seat Leo McCarthy 31% Barbara Boxer 81% Mel Levine 87%

Candidate Impressions: U.S. Senate--Republicans

Among All Registered Voters Among Registered Rep No 2-Year Seat: Favorable Unfavorable Opinion Favorable Unfavorable John Seymour 11% 12% 77% 15% 9% William 10% 10% 80% 14% 9% Dannemeyer 6-Year Seat Sonny Bono 28% 34% 38% 28% 35% Tom Campbell 12% 4% 84% 13% 5% Bruce 16% 10% 74% 22% 6% Herschensohn

ublicans No 2-Year Seat: Opinion John Seymour 76% William 76% Dannemeyer 6-Year Seat Sonny Bono 37% Tom Campbell 82% Bruce 72% Herschensohn

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,190 registered California voters Dec. 7-10, including 517 registered Democrats and 486 registered Republicans.