New Hampshire Gains by Clinton Shown in Poll

In a sign that Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton is solidifying his position as the early front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, a poll released Thursday shows him running close behind former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas in the key primary state of New Hampshire.

The New Hampshire Poll, conducted by the American Research Group Inc., found Tsongas leading Clinton 23% to 21% among the state’s likely Democratic voters, with the party’s four remaining major candidates in single digits.

Tsongas consistently has led previous polls in New Hampshire, largely on the strength of his name recognition as a former senator from a neighboring state. But the new poll is the second to show Clinton gaining ground on him. A survey commissioned by the Concord Monitor and released earlier this week showed Tsongas leading Clinton 25% to 17%.

The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.

A victory by Clinton in New Hampshire’s Feb. 18 primary would give him a major boost toward the nomination, in part because several of the race’s major contests in the following weeks are in Southern states where he is expected to enjoy a regional advantage.

Reacting to the new poll figures, a senior political adviser to the Clinton campaign said Thursday, “The campaign is several weeks ahead of where I thought it would be at this point.” Clinton has been winning favorable reviews of late for stressing a centrist message that he and his supporters contend gives him the best chance of defeating President Bush in the general election. He also has won praise for spelling out his economic, social and foreign policies in a series of detailed speeches.

The new poll was taken after New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo decided against joining the Democratic race. Cuomo had been expected to be a big favorite in New Hampshire had he sought the nomination.

Among the other Democratic candidates, the new poll found Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey backed by 9% of those contacted; Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, 3%; Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, 1%, and former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., less than 0.5%.

The results are especially bad news for Harkin. The Iowa senator has stressed traditional liberal ideals in his campaign, and he was expected to benefit from Cuomo’s decision not to run. But even before the latest poll figures came out, several Harkin advisers were saying he needs a strong media push in New Hampshire to get his message known and boost his chances there.

Among New Hampshire’s Republican voters, the new poll showed Bush leading conservative challenger Patrick J. Buchanan 59% to 21%. In the poll released earlier this week, Bush led Buchanan 58% to 30%.