NEWS ANALYSIS : Even Advisers Predict an Ugly Year for Wilson

“It’s going to be an ugly, ugly year,” one of Gov. Pete Wilson’s closest advisers predicted Thursday.

And it plainly was starting out that way in the Capitol, with some missteps, sulking, fiery words and “gotchas” that did not bode well for Wilson as he enters what many think will be his pivotal year as governor.

Some examples:

* Wilson’s State of the State address Wednesday was flat and uninspiring, in the candid view of even some of his most loyal supporters. “He was attempting to be all things to all people,” lamented one.

* Assembly Speaker Willie Brown (D-San Francisco), without whose help Wilson could not have gotten a budget passed last summer, snubbed the governor’s post-speech banquet for legislators. The speaker did not have a cold or anything, an aide said. He just decided not to go. On Thursday, Brown compared Wilson to Herbert Hoover, the Republican President who has been a Democratic symbol for the Great Depression.

* The governor, briefing reporters Thursday on his $60-billion state budget proposal, sternly used fighting words in predicting what will happen in the November elections if lawmakers again miss the deadline for passing a spending plan: “Then they’ll simply have to do it later--and if they don’t do it later, we will simply see a bunch of new legislators here next January.”

* Upstairs in the Assembly chamber, Democrats were returning a shot across Wilson’s bow. They did it by refusing to confirm his appointment of an actuarial firm for the Public Employees Retirement System. A little thing, but the intended message was clear--”that we are not happy with the way business is being conducted around here,” according to one Democrat close to the Speaker.

Wilson later responded that the Democrats’ action “reflects the height of irresponsibility and political cynicism.”

It was all a far cry from a year ago when the new governor and legislators were laughing and basking in the euphoria of a new relationship, one they were confident would be much smoother and more productive than the gridlock that had developed with Wilson’s predecessor, George Deukmejian.

“One thing with George Deukmejian, you knew where he stood,” an Assembly Democrat recalled somewhat fondly Thursday. “With Wilson, you don’t. One day he’s one place, the next day, he’s another.”

A Senate Democrat who is close to President Pro Tem David A. Roberti (D-Los Angeles) lamented: “We tried to accommodate Wilson and we compromised a lot last year, and then he comes along and hammers us.”

Although firm positions have not yet been taken, Democrats are showing signs of opposing the governor on many of his proposed welfare and Medi-Cal cuts plus, among other things, his attempt to eliminate what remains of renters’ tax credits.

Also, legislators are angry with Wilson for a host of personal reasons--for endorsing term limits, for refusing to kick in funds to help save important legislative functions threatened by Proposition 140 cutbacks, for avoiding legislative negotiations and maneuvering reapportionment into the courts where incumbents did not fare as well, and for trying to take away some of their budgetary authority and stop their paychecks if they do not pass a spending plan on time.

The way some people close to Wilson see it, redistricting and term limits are making these legislators lame ducks anyway. And if the governor, through his finessing of the redistricting process, can enable Republicans to take control of the Assembly in November while winning voter approval of his sweeping welfare “reforms,” he not only will have restored his popularity with Republicans, but with the electorate.

“Anyway, we don’t have anywhere to go but up,” one Wilson aide acknowledged, citing the governor’s nose-dive in the polls last year after approving a $7.6-billion tax increase to balance his first budget deficit.

“I think we’re going to come out of it all right,” said another adviser, the one who forecast an “ugly, ugly year.”

One major reason the governor’s strategists feel confident that his political fortunes have bottomed out and are poised for a rebound is a substantial restructuring taking place within his inner circle. “The governor’s bringing in some maturity,” said one important Republican.

Wilson’s staff suffered a loss of expertise after the death in June of his trusted communications director, Otto Bos, and the later resignation of veteran political aide Marty Wilson. Recently, Deputy Chief of Staff David Caffrey and legislative liaison Allan Zaremberg--two holdovers from the Deukmejian Administration--also left. The Republican governor is rebuilding with a new team of veteran political operatives.

Wilson’s most senior adviser, Bob White, remains as chief of staff. As his deputy, White recruited George Dunn, long active in politics, from his post as government relations manager for Arco. The governor also soon intends to bring in San Francisco political consultant Joe Shumate as another deputy chief of staff. And William Hauck, former chief of staff for the late Democratic Assembly Speaker Robert Moretti, has signed on as a policy adviser.

Democratic leaders--and even some Republicans--are sensing that the newly confident governor’s office regards them as lame ducks and they resent it, looking upon Wilson and his staff as being cocky. “The mood, the feelings, are as bad as they have ever been, as bad as they were under Deukmejian,” said one veteran Republican with good contacts among Democrats.

“Democrats are out to put him away this year. And a lot of Republicans in the Legislature are going to quietly go along with it,” this GOP operative said. “If they don’t give him a budget by August, they’ll put him away. The governor usually takes the flak. And they say they’re gone anyway (with term limits and redistricting).”

Putting Wilson away means leaving him so politically damaged after this year that he will not be able to win reelection in 1994--let alone run for President in 1996. They conceivably could severely wound the governor by tying him up with an embarrassing, summer-long stalemate on the budget--similar to what has tarnished New York’s Democratic Gov. Mario M. Cuomo.

Meanwhile, the reviews were not coming in positively on Wilson’s speech--even from supporters who spoke on condition of anonymity, as did virtually everyone interviewed for this story.

“The governor has trouble with definition,” said one Republican, echoing many legislators. “He’s both conservative and liberal. In the final analysis, that comes back and bites you because nobody trusts you. He’s got to figure out who he is and be himself.”

In Wilson’s view, he is a “compassionate conservative”--a Republican tight with a buck and tough on law and order, but also one who believes in such things as family planning and a woman’s right to choose whether to have an abortion. But he tends to confuse people by proposing big cuts in Medi-Cal health care for the poor while advocating a new state subsidized health insurance program for preschoolers, as he did in his budget.

“One of the problems is he’s not traditional as Republican activists understand it,” one adviser conceded. “But his views do represent mainstream Republican voters.”

And that is what Wilson is counting on this year--that his views on welfare will turn out not only to represent the thinking of mainstream Republicans, but the electorate generally. Then it will not matter much what the Legislature thinks on that subject--as it also did not matter last year on redistricting.

Except that it makes for “an ugly, ugly” mood in the Capitol.

Budget Highlights

Gov. Pete Wilson on Thursday proposed a $60.2-billion state budget for 1992-93. Some details:

WELFARE

The governor has proposed cutting welfare grants by 10%. That would mean that a mother and two children, now receiving $663 a month, would receive $597. Wilson also wants to cut grants an additional 15% after a family with an able-bodied adult has been receiving aid for six months.

PUBLIC SCHOOLS

The governor’s plan would fully fund the schools as required under Proposition 98, the initiative approved by voters in 1988. Under the proposal, schools would receive 7.9% more than this year--more than enough to cover an expected 3.5% increase in the kindergarten through high school student population and a small cost-of-living increase of 1.5%. Wilson wants to target some of the added money to specific programs, including $50 million to expand preschool programs and $20 million for school health services.

HIGHER EDUCATION

Students at the state-funded universities will face steep fee increases this year, under Wilson’s proposal. Fees at the University of California campuses would rise by 24% this year, or $550 per student, to $2,824 a year. Students attending schools in the California State University system would face a 40% increase to $1,310 a year.

HEALTH

Troubled by the rising cost of Medi-Cal, the state and federal medical care program for the poor, Wilson has proposed eliminating a variety of services including dental care for adults, acupuncture, blood banks, occupational therapy, chiropractic treatment and podiatry for a savings of $7.6 million this year and more than $100 million next year. He also proposes limiting hospital stays under Medi-Cal to a maximum of 60 days a year for a savings of $61 million. But the governor’s budget increases health payments in some areas. He is promoting a program he is calling CheckUp, a state-subsidized health insurance program for youngsters aged 2 to 5. And Wilson proposes doubling the $10-million initial budget for his program to provide mental health services to children while at school. He also wants to increase the state family planning budget by 20% to $36 million for programs directed at teen-agers and women drug addicts.

PRISONS

State officials predict that the prisoner population in California will increase by more than 5% this year and the number of parolees is expected to increase by 9%. Wilson proposes increasing the budget for prisons, the California Youth Authority and other public safety programs by 7.8% to $3.8 billion for next year.

STATE EMPLOYEES

The governor continues to press for cutting the wages of all state workers by 5% and forcing these public employees to pick up a larger share of their health insurance costs.