Dissatisfaction With Bush Reaches Its Highest Level

President Bush remains in a precarious political position even after aggressively moving to improve his standing with his highly touted State of the Union address last week, a new Times Poll has found.

For Bush, political risk appears to be building on two fronts, the poll reveals.

First, most voters doubt that the proposals he announced in last week’s speech will improve their personal financial situations, and a majority continue to give him low grades for his handling of the economy. Overall, just 46% of those polled approve of Bush’s job performance, and 47% disapprove--the highest level of dissatisfaction recorded in a Times Poll since he took office.

Second, the voters’ persistent skepticism that the Democrats could do any better is giving way to an increased belief that the opposition may be more capable of responding to the nation’s key economic and social problems.

In the new survey, 38% identified the Democrats as the party best able to keep the nation prosperous, compared to 33% who named the Republicans. The GOP consistently had outscored the Democrats on this question in most polls during the last eight years. Historically, the Democrats have won the White House only when they hold a substantial lead on that central measure of economic trust.

Taken together, these interlocking trends have left Bush facing a more difficult reelection race than almost anyone imagined possible just one year ago, when U.S. troops triumphantly swept Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein’s forces from Kuwait.

Among registered voters, just 38% say they are now inclined to back Bush for a second term, whereas 42% say they are more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee and 20% describe themselves as undecided. In a Times Poll last November, Bush led an unnamed Democrat by 42% to 34%, with 24% undecided.

“I’ve always voted Republican, but I’m ready to switch, depending on who is running,” said Deanna Webster, a poll respondent who works as a receptionist in Sandy, Utah. “I don’t think the country is doing that great. I don’t think our kids have hope. When they graduate from college, there are 500 applicants for every job.”

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, interviewed 1,776 adults from Jan. 31 through Feb. 3. That total included 1,424 registered voters--among them 700 Democrats and independents leaning toward the party, as well as 627 Republicans and independents leaning toward the GOP. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points on the entire sample, and 4 points on questions involving answers only from respondents in one party.

The numbers in the survey are not all bearish for Bush. He continues to lead each of the five announced major Democratic presidential candidates when paired head-to-head--partly because he is much better known than any of them.

The best-known Democrat, Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, also runs the closest race against Bush. Matched against Clinton, Bush wins a hypothetical general election by 51% to 40%.

Still, the new survey found that fully 70% said the nation was on the wrong track, contrasted with just 23% who believe it is moving in the right direction. At no time during the successful Republican presidential campaigns of 1984 or 1988 were Americans nearly as pessimistic about the nation’s direction.

Moreover, nine in 10 of those polled believe that the nation remains stuck in recession, and most do not see any immediate prospects for improvement. About one-fifth of those surveyed believe that the economy will improve in the next three months, but about one-fourth expect continued decline and half forecast little change.

As for Clinton, in some respects he has benefited from the enormous attention focused on him since an Arkansas woman, Gennifer Flowers, alleged that they had carried on a 12-year affair: The publicity has greatly increased public awareness of Clinton and pushed him to the forefront of the Democratic field.

In the new survey, 31% of registered Democrats and independents leaning toward the party say they support Clinton for the nomination. That is up from only 9% in November and represents a better than 2-1 lead over former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., who runs second at 12%.

Sens. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska and Tom Harkin of Iowa and former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas remain unknown to at least three-quarters of Democratic voters and still attract only single-digit support for the nomination.

The survey does not indicate widespread problems for Clinton over the adultery allegations, although the charges are troublesome to a potentially significant minority.

Overall, three-quarters of those polled said the charges would not affect their votes; one-fifth said the accusations would make them less likely to support him, and 4% said they would be more likely to back him.

Asked directly, just 13% of Americans say they would abandon a candidate solely because he engaged in an extramarital affair; 83% said they would not. And those most likely to bolt from a candidate for that reason tend to be those least likely to vote for a Democrat in the first place.

Concern about a candidate who had an extramarital affair is strongest among women, older voters, conservatives and married couples. Nearly two-thirds of those who would switch their votes for that reason alone are over 45 years old.

By contrast, just 10% of those under 45 said they would reject a candidate solely for that reason. “We have had public officials who have had affairs for 200 years,” said Gene Troia, 36, a building contractor in East Montpelier, Vt., who responded to the survey. “I don’t think we can expect our leaders to be superhuman; they’re people.”

The poll indicates, though, that Clinton could face much greater difficulty if it turned out that he had lied in denying Flowers’ allegations. Almost half of those polled said they would switch from a candidate who had lied to conceal an extramarital affair.

Though these findings suggest only a small amount of direct damage to Clinton from the charges, uneasiness about the controversy may be influencing voters’ general perception of him.

For instance, 32% of registered voters viewed Clinton favorably and 29% unfavorably. That virtually tied response represents “a warning signal for Clinton,” Brennan said. In November, though few voters had heard of Clinton, those who held an opinion viewed him favorably by a margin of almost 2 to 1.

Concerns about Clinton may have more relevance to a potential general election than to his ability to win the nomination. Registered Democrats still view him favorably by a substantial 40%-17% margin; independents, though, split on him, with 33% viewing him favorably and 32% unfavorably. Republicans now look on him unfavorably by a 43%-23% margin.

Looking at these sorts of numbers, some Democratic leaders in Washington have discussed the possibility of recruiting another candidate into the race who is unburdened by the personal baggage weighing down Clinton. But the Times Poll suggests that those being wooed from the sidelines may bear even heavier baggage of their own.

In the survey, fully 44% of those polled--including 46% of independents--said they would “definitely not vote” for a presidential candidate who “had opposed the use of U.S. military force in last year’s war against Iraq.” With the exception of Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., all of those mentioned as possible late entrants into the Democratic race--including New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo and House Majority Leader Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri--opposed the use of force in January, 1991.

For Bush, foreign affairs remains the lone bright spot in his standing with the public--though even there his luster has somewhat dimmed. Three in five of those polled approved of Bush’s record on foreign affairs, down from two-thirds in November.

Bush would gladly settle for a similar assessment of his economic performance. Two-thirds of those surveyed disapproved of his handling of the economy, and just 29% approved. Those figures are virtually unchanged from November, despite the long list of proposals Bush advanced to revive the economy in his State of the Union speech.

That speech--billed by White House aides as a defining moment of his presidency--did not appear to catch the public’s imagination, the poll found. Just one-quarter of Americans said they knew a great deal or a good amount about the speech, whereas nearly three-fourths said they had followed Bush’s proposals only somewhat or not at all.

Overall, just 6% of those polled said the agenda Bush advanced in the State of the Union address would be very effective in reviving the economy; 52% said they would be somewhat effective, and 37% doubted that they would have much impact. Voters were even less optimistic that the plans would help them personally. Just 34% said they expected some assistance from the President’s proposals, and 64% said Bush’s economic agenda would help them little or not at all.

“It’s too little, too late,” said Robert Bouterse, a retired television producer in Kalamazoo, Mich., who responded to the survey. “I think the whole thing has gotten too far out of his hands to cope with . . . . He’s been so involved with international affairs that he just hasn’t addressed the problems in this country.”

Those sentiments may constitute a threat to Bush in the general election, but there is no evidence in the poll that either of his challengers for the GOP nomination are harvesting that discontent nationwide. Among registered Republicans, 85% say they support Bush; 9% back conservative commentator Patrick J. Buchanan, and just 2% support former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke.

Times Poll: Doubts Raised on Economy

President Bush’s hopes that his State of the Union address would spark a surge of support for his efforts to battle the recession apparently have gone unfulfilled, a Times Poll indicates. The poll also showed that his approval ratings continue to dip from the highs they enjoyed during and just after last year’s Persian Gulf War.

* Overall, do you think the economic plan outlined by President Bush in his State of the Union address will help in improving the nation’s economy? Somewhat Effective: 52% No Too Effective: 28% Not Effective at All: 9% Very Effective: 6% Don’t Know: 5%

* How much do you think George Bush cares about the problems of the average American? Only Some: 33% Good Amount: 25% Not Much: 21% Great Deal: 20% Don’t Know: 1%

* How much will Bush’s State of the Union proposals help you and your family? A Little: 37% Some: 29% Not at All: 28% A Lot: 4% Don’t Know: 2%

* Bush Job Approval Rating: Mar. ‘91: 84% Apr. ‘91: 82% June ‘91: 74% Aug. ‘91: 73% Sep. ‘91: 65% Nov. ‘91: 53% Feb. ‘92: 46% Source: Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,776 adults nationwide Jan. 31-Feb. 3.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,776 adult Americans nationwide by telephone from Jan. 31 to Feb. 3. The sample includes 1,424 registered voters, of whom 700 are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents and 627 are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list that includes all telephone exchanges in the United States. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that listed and unlisted households had an opportunity to be contacted. Results were adjusted slightly to conform with census figures on variables such as sex, race and national origin, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the total sample and the total registered voters sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points; the error margin for the samples of registered Democrats and Republicans is plus or minus 4 points. The error margin for subgroups may be somewhat higher. Poll results also can be influenced by other factors, such as the wording of questions and the order in which questions are presented.