Religious Right May Be Switching Sides : Politics: Evangelical leaders are disappointed with Bush over the lack of progress on social issues. Concerns about the economy add to their discontent.

During the run up to the 1988 presidential election, the political air was charged with religious language and holy causes.

The phenomenon of the religious right had shown during the Ronald Reagan era that politically conservative religious forces could be effective in engineering victories at the polls.

Four years later, where are those politically active evangelicals? Lacking a preacher candidate such as Pat Robertson or a political insider such as the Rev. Jerry Falwell, have conservative evangelicals given up the political arena?

While such high-profile leaders have retreated from the front lines, many conservative religious activists are still devoted to the cause, say some who track such matters. But their general disappointment with President Bush and their concern about the economy could push them into the Democrats’ camp.

Evangelicals today feel they are “on the back of the bus with the Bush Administration and are likely to stay there,” said Richard Cizik, a public policy analyst for the National Assn. of Evangelicals. Consequently, those voters, heavily concentrated in the South, may “decide to vote their pocketbooks” and that could mean going with Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, “particularly since he is from the South.”

Clinton was the front-running Democratic candidate early in the campaign, but his standing in opinion polls has slipped.

During the 1980s, involvement by religious conservatives was solidly behind Republicans and was “born out of frustration” over morality issues, Cizik said. “What’s the harm in a Clinton if Bush will do the same” on social issues that appeal to conservatives?

Cizik noted that Bush has never gained the strong support of evangelicals that Reagan did and that he was helped in gaining their support in 1988 when Democrats nominated Michael S. Dukakis, who lacked connections to liberal or conservative religious groups.

A sure indication that campaign strategists still accord some sway to evangelicals was Bush’s appearance before the annual meeting of the National Religious Broadcasters last month. Because that organization has long been a reflection of the religious right, the relationship between Bush and his audience there is a useful gauge for calculating the mood and importance of evangelicals in this election.

Bush, who once confessed to evangelical editors that his language about his faith was often less vivid than that of his evangelical friends, exercised little restraint this time around when he thanked the group for its support during last year’s war in the Persian Gulf and “for helping America, as Christ ordained, to be a light unto the world.”

He even used a phrase from Scripture to explain the need to improve the balance of trade. “The Bible reminds us: ‘By thy works shall ye know them,’ ” said Bush.

Such explicit linkage between Christianity and the nation may have cost Bush some votes; it displeased Jewish and Muslim groups.

But Bush apparently feels a strong enough need to continue courting the religious right that he is willing to take risks, said author Garry Wills.

Wills noted that Bush is willing to take risks not only with his use of language but also by staking out a strong anti-abortion stand.

Wills’ 1990 book, “Under God, Religion and American Politics,” makes a strong case for the place of religion as a longtime and essential element in U.S. politics. On Bush’s appearance before the religious broadcasters, Wills said it was a clear sign that “he is still wooing them very strongly.”

Such efforts may be needed, experts say, in light of indications that evangelicals are tiring of backing candidates and getting what they feel is little in return.

Some affiliated with the religious right argue that aside from the notable exception of conservative appointments to the justice system, including the Supreme Court, evangelicals have seen few rewards for their efforts at the polls. Friends in the White House have failed to produce any results for the religious right on the main points of its social agenda--prayer in schools, tax support for religious schools, an anti-abortion amendment and limiting rights of homosexuals.

One sentiment easy to find at the broadcasters’ convention was that Bush is using the language, but not backing it up with any action. His “heart is in the right place,” said one delegate, “but he’s gotten a little sidetracked as far as pro-family and pro-Christian stances.”

The role of evangelicals in this year’s elections will become clearer as the primary season unfolds. A host of unknowns could affect that role.

Thomas M. Steinfatt, professor of communication at the University of Miami, believes that Bush “has to worry within his own party” about the effect of right-wing Republican candidates David Duke and Patrick J. Buchanan. Both Duke, who is not running in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, and Buchanan, who is, could attract votes of religious conservatives.

According to political scientist Kenneth Wald, another worry for Bush is “trying to hold together a coalition that was important to the Reagan White House--conservative seculars, such as libertarians and yuppies, and the Christian right, which is conservative economically but is also interested in moral issues.”

“As long as the economy was good, you could finesse the conflict” inherent between the two groups, said Wald, political science department chairman at the University of Florida.

But when the economy goes bad, the tensions are likely to come out. “It is an unstable coalition,” said Wald, “and George Bush is not Ronald Reagan. He doesn’t enjoy the support among the religious right that Reagan had. When the economy goes bad, the level of loyalty is not as strong.”

If the disaffection of evangelicals turns them toward Clinton, it might be well to note that the Arkansas governor is no Dukakis when it comes to religion. Wills pointed out that one of the changes Clinton and his wife, Hillary, made after his defeat in the 1980 governor’s race was to start going to church. He attends Emmanuel Baptist Church and sings in the choir; she attends a United Methodist church with their daughter, Chelsea.

Not only did Clinton attend services and sing, but the services were televised, and his constituents could see him in church every week, Wills said.