Buchanan’s Real Threat to Bush Could Come on Election Day : Campaign: Virtually certain to gain his party’s nomination, the President may find his reelection chances hurt if he alienates GOP challenger’s conservative supporters.

Despite his surprisingly strong showing in the New Hampshire primary, Patrick J. Buchanan remains virtually no threat to President Bush’s renomination, political analysts say.

But the conservative television commentator could seriously weaken Bush’s chances for reelection next November by pressing his hard-hitting campaign through the spring primaries and exploiting underlying weaknesses in the GOP.

Buchanan has neither the money nor the campaign organization to seriously contest the many Republican primaries that will be held during the next month, especially in Georgia, South Carolina and other Southern states where Bush is stronger than he was in New Hampshire. In fact, many GOP activists say New Hampshire could be Buchanan’s high-water mark.

New Hampshire has a proportional primary, so Buchanan won some delegates to the GOP convention. But most of the other Republican primaries are winner-take-all, so even a strong second-place showing will not gain Buchanan any delegates.

Nevertheless, in the longer term, Buchanan represents a problem similar to one faced by Democratic President Jimmy Carter in 1980: How to beat back an insurgent challenger without alienating his supporters. Republican strategists call it a major headache for Bush and say he starts out already having alienated his conservative base.

If Buchanan carries his attacks all the way to Houston’s Republican convention in August, as many GOP activists suggest he may, Bush would be drawn into a fight that could further divide his party and distract him from concentrating on his Democratic opposition. Kevin Phillips, a Republican political strategist, calls that “the Bush White House ultimate nightmare” and a development that would increase chances of serious, drawn-out intraparty fratricide.

Carter fought a bruising battle in turning back a more serious challenge from Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) and spent much of his time in the 1980 campaign struggling to unify his party instead of concentrating on Ronald Reagan’s challenge. After losing to Reagan, Carter blamed Kennedy and the loss of liberal Democratic votes for his defeat.

Bush, too, undoubtedly faces a bitter struggle. Buchanan, a political brawler, already has challenged the President’s credibility and called his State of the Union address “a giant political scam.”

GOP strategists agree Bush needs to win convincingly over Buchanan to enter the general election campaign in a strong position. But they disagree over whether the President ought to go after Buchanan’s extremist views or avoid personality clashes for fear of losing his supporters in November.

Two of former President Reagan’s senior campaign strategists--Ed Rollins and Lyn Nofziger--say that although there is no question Bush will win the nomination, he must be careful not to lock horns with Buchanan and cause his supporters to desert the Republican ticket.

“Buchanan’s a distraction and a problem for Bush, but not a serious threat for the nomination,” said Rollins, whose wife, Sherrie, is an assistant to the President for public liaison.

“But if Bush gets into the gutter with him and alienates his troops, then it’s hard to pull them back in the fall,” Rollins said. “In beating Buchanan, Bush has got to make sure his message is geared against the Democrats, and that won’t be easy. If I had a simple solution I would fax it to the White House. Bush cannot afford to make Buchanan an issue.”

Nofziger said: “George Bush is a bulldog at campaigning and he will hang in there and be tough. But what he has to do is win this thing without alienating the conservatives any more than he already has. It’s a big problem for him.”

If Bush were to anger Buchanan’s supporters and they had no alternative conservative to vote for in November, Nofziger said, they probably would stay away from the polls.

Some Republicans, however, say the President ought to go after Buchanan’s “dark side.” Steven A. Merksamer, a Sacramento attorney and GOP activist who was Gov. George Deukmejian’s chief of staff, says Bush should attack Buchanan for his extremist views.

“Much of Buchanan’s message is positive and is just like Bush’s anti-tax, anti-big government messages in 1988,” Merksamer said. “But Bush needs to attack him for his subtle racism and anti-Semitism and his isolationism and xenophobia. His views are fundamentally at odds with mainstream Republicanism and the President has yet to repudiate him for those views.”

And California Senate Republican Leader Ken Maddy of Fresno said that although Buchanan may not be much of a threat to Bush, “the level of dissatisfaction with Bush among California Republicans is so great that they rejoiced to see Buchanan get such a big vote against him in New Hampshire. They think it may get his attention so he’ll quit ignoring the state.”

The crucial voters for Bush as he squares off against Buchanan are younger conservatives who may refuse to back the President in November if they think he has been too tough on Buchanan, GOP strategists say.

Ed Rollins said that in 1976, President Gerald R. Ford, who narrowly lost the election to Carter, was hurt by young conservatives he alienated in defeating Reagan for the Republican nomination.

“Bush has got to lay out his policy differences with Buchanan without getting into a personality conflict,” Rollins said. “Bloodying the messenger will not alter the message.”

For Bush, some Republicans say, there also is an upside to Buchanan’s challenge. It will help him hone his campaign skills for the general election.

“It’s not nice for the President to have someone following him around in the primaries,” said Frank J. Fahrenkopf Jr., former Republican Party chairman. “But there’s no question it will sharpen him up for the campaign against the Democrats.”

The challenger’s campaign manager and sister, Angela (Bay) Buchanan, discounted any lasting damage to Bush if the President, as expected, retains the nomination after a primary tussle.

“If he were to become the nominee, what’s happened?” she asked. “He (Bush) has been forced to debate the issues that the American people find are vital and critical.

“And he has been forced also to develop a campaign, a strategy to discuss and decide what vision he has for his country--so that when he goes into that general election he has a team which is strengthened by battle.”

Times political writer Cathleen Decker contributed to this story.