‘Wide Open’ Democratic Race Puts Maine’s Caucuses Back on the Map : Campaign: Tsongas and Clinton step up efforts. Lack of organization hurts Buchanan on GOP side.

Today’s Maine caucuses, initially expected to be of little note on the 1992 presidential circuit, have turned out to be both less predictable and of greater interest than anticipated, especially among the Democrats.

In a sign of the changed circumstances, Paul E. Tsongas and Bill Clinton each made last-minute stops in the state Saturday. Tsongas, who has stepped up his television advertising on local stations, wants to follow his New Hampshire triumph with a similar finish here. Clinton hopes that his large state organization will propel him to a strong showing--one that serves to embarrass Tsongas.

Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. also has made a major effort in the state, campaigning here each day since the New Hampshire vote and buying newspaper advertising.

“It’s wide open,” said Jo Karr, chairwoman of the Maine Democratic Committee. “It would be a mistake to predict anything until the results are in.”

On the Republican side, most handicappers expect the caucus vote will go strongly for President Bush, who has spent every summer of his life in Maine, except when he was in the service. But some acknowledge at least a chance that the state’s economic distress could bring out supporters of the insurgent GOP candidacy of Patrick J. Buchanan.

Gov. John R. McKernan, a Republican, said recently that “for the most part, people are sticking with Bush.” But he added that some “pockets” of support may exist for Buchanan.

As in New Hampshire, where dire economic straits translated into a surprisingly narrow primary win for Bush last Tuesday, Buchanan’s best hope in Maine seems to rest on a protest vote generated by hard times.

But the conservative commentator likely will be hampered by a lack of organization--crucial in a caucus state--and a lack of time spent in the state. Buchanan has a campaign chairman in only one Maine county. And his only stop in Maine came earlier this month, when he attended a dinner in the southern city of Kittery.

The Democratic and Republican caucuses are closed to members of other parties, but open to registered independents. The caucuses will take place in homes, schools, churches and the like, and each gathering may last several hours.

On the Democratic side, the conventional wisdom is that Tsongas’ New England roots and his first-place finish in New Hampshire should spell victory for him in Maine. Because of those expectations, some political professionals contend that he must win the caucuses convincingly to get much of a boost from the outcome. Clinton, according to this line of argument, would strengthen his position as the self-proclaimed “comeback kid” with a strong showing.

Clinton comes into the race with a major advantage--a better campaign organization than his rivals. And caucuses frequently are won by organizations best able to get out their vote.

Clinton’s organization has been geared up since the beginning of the year. It has four state offices, a campaign director in each county and a paid staff of eight. His appearance at a party dinner Saturday night in Lewiston marked his fourth sally into the state since December, aides said.

At the dinner, Clinton touted the need for a “national vision” to solve the country’s problems. In a gibe at Bush, he said, “I know we can’t get it from a President who talks about the ‘vision thing’ as if it is an irritant that he has to deal with every four years.”

Tsongas was represented at the dinner by his twin sister. The candidate himself traveled to Portland Saturday to speak to a rally of several hundred supporters. Pressing his call for a change in the party’s approach to the economy, he said today’s caucuses offered a chance for voters to help “take the Democratic Party away from a lot of old nonsense.”

He added that “too many people are hurt (by the nation’s economic problems). There’s a human toll here. And those Democrats who adhere to the old ideology--that’s all they’re doing. They’re not in touch with what’s going on.”

Tsongas also made a last-minute purchase of television air time here that one Clinton supporter and activist, Gordon Weil, said may have cost as much as $10,000. Peggy Connolly, Tsongas’ campaign press secretary, said she “wouldn’t dispute” the figure.

In one sign of the heightened activity, some Democrats who were delegates to the 1988 convention say they have been contacted two or three times by the Clinton campaign, and just as many times by the Tsongas side.

Whether these efforts will translate into support remains in doubt, partly because Maine voters, like their New Hampshire neighbors, take pride in their unpredictability at the ballot box.

Brown could be helped by the liberal leanings of many Maine Democrats. Bill Diamond, the Maine secretary of state and a Democrat, predicted Brown would be the “surprise” candidate because of backing from Maine’s strong anti-nuclear groups.

The Democratic campaigns of Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey and Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin--the third- and fourth-place finishers in new Hampshire’s primary--have put little emphasis on the state. A significant showing by either would be a major surprise.

Clinton, before his speech in Lewiston, campaigned during the day in Washington and Baltimore.

Times staff writers Cathleen Decker and Robert Stewart contributed to this story.