Agran’s Best Shot in Race May Also Be His Last One : Politics: South Dakota is friendly territory to former Irvine mayor but poor outing may doom campaign.

Battered and somewhat bowed by a dismal showing in New Hampshire, Democrat Larry Agran brings his presidential bandwagon this week to the land of Gen. George Custer and the Little Big Horn in an attempt to make something of his own last stand.

South Dakota’s frozen prairie is a long way from Agran’s glass office in Orange County, but in many ways, it is friendly territory for the former Irvine mayor. He is a longtime ally of ex-South Dakota Sen. George McGovern and, for the first time, he will share a stage tonight with the five leading Democratic candidates in a nationally televised debate (C-SPAN, 4 p.m. PST).

As a result, Agran will probably never have a better shot at breaking from obscurity than he does in South Dakota’s second-in-the-nation presidential primary on Tuesday. At the same time, he acknowledges that if he does not do well under these conditions, even he may give up hope that his candidacy will be taken seriously.

“At least I’ll have this one shot to get my message out,” Agran said. “There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the message is popular, as well as right.”

So far, Agran has been losing the game of expectations that he set for himself, gaining just 332 votes in the New Hampshire primary last Tuesday, far short of the 3% to 5% return he had predicted. Agran, who spent much of his time complaining that he was not getting attention from the media, finished a dismal ninth. He received nearly 3,000 votes less than former actor Tom Laughlin, who placed sixth.

“I can’t kid you, we were crushed,” said Mike Casper, a Huntington Beach commercial video producer who staffs Agran’s office in New Hampshire. “It was a devastating blow.”

Agran said he too was frustrated by the poor showing in New Hampshire, but remained hopeful.

“Clearly we didn’t do it in New Hampshire,” he said. “But South Dakota is more of a level playing field.”

But Agran’s campaign has once again set an ambitious mark for it to meet in South Dakota; aides say the candidate needs as much as 10% of the vote.

That would probably mean Agran would have to beat one of the five leading Democratic candidates--former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas; Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey, Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin or former California Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr.

Despite his advantages in South Dakota, Democratic officials say Agran is still more of a curiosity or even an annoyance than he is a contender. He is the only candidate without television commercials airing in South Dakota. And with all five leading Democrats campaigning hard in the days before the primary, Agran is still likely to have a difficult time getting his message out.

But the question, as Agran puts it, is whether “I can register some showing on the radar screen.” With the foothold he has in South Dakota, his campaign is hopeful. And Agran said no matter what the outcome here he intends to continue his campaign at least through the primaries in Illinois and New York.

This week, Agran and his staff were buoyed by a glowing endorsement of his campaign in the Lakota Times, a national newspaper for American Indians that is published in South Dakota.

More than 7% of South Dakota’s Democratic vote comes from the state’s large Indian reservations. During his three campaign visits so far to South Dakota, Agran has studied Indian issues and developed a policy that is as radical as it is innovative.

Agran pledged that his administration would issue a formal apology from the federal government for problems it has caused Native Americans. And he said he would order his Secretary of State to negotiate a new peace treaty with the American Indian community that recognizes its reservations as sovereign nations.

Asked what that would mean for issues like taxes, the military, pollution, voting rights or immigration, Agran was vague, saying those matters would be addressed during the negotiations. Nonetheless, the high-level recognition of American Indian issues was well received by Indian leaders.

“He is a gentlemen in every sense of the word; honest, sincere, dedicated, intelligent and informed about what the real problems are in Indian country,” wrote Lakota Times publisher Tim Giago, who said he switched from the Republican Party so he could vote for Agran. “He is the only candidate who traveled to the Indian reservations of South Dakota with a policy that would guide his administration in the Indian world.”

Agran’s campaign is also certain to be helped by his appearance in tonight’s debate. He has been on national television several times during the campaign, including an appearance this week on ABC-TV’s “Nightline.” But tonight, for 90 minutes, his stature is boosted to that of a contender as he meets his opponents face-to-face.

How he got there is a question some other campaigns have asked privately. The answer dates back to his work with McGovern, where he got to know several leaders of the state Democratic Party, which is sponsoring the debate.

Agran was the national director of an exploratory committee for McGovern last year when the former senator and 1972 presidential nominee was considering another bid for the White House.

“We have a special place in our hearts for Larry Agran,” said Kathy Piersall as she introduced the Orange County Democrat at a party steak fry last November. “He is devoted to George McGovern and the policies of George McGovern.”

In his speech that night following Harkin, Agran softened the crowd with a few jokes about his home in Orange County.

After noting the county’s dominant Republican politics, Agran said: “Every Watergate criminal who ever existed has passed through Orange County or lives there. . . . In Orange County, if we ever got a gathering of Democrats like this, we’d have thought we died and went to heaven.”

For many of the people who helped elect George McGovern, Agran’s world peace message has a familiar tone.

With the Cold War over, Agran has called for a 50% cut in U.S. military spending in less than three years. He claims such a reduction would generate more than $150 billion a year that could be shifted to domestic priorities.

In contrast, the most liberal military reduction offered by the other major Democrats comes from Harkin, who has called for a 50% cut over 10 years.

McGovern, himself, says he will remain neutral during his state’s primary, but he said he agrees with much of Agran’s campaign platform.

“I think what he says makes sense,” McGovern said in a telephone interview. “But I warned him about this campaign. The problem is that if you try to go into presidential politics without some kind of major office first, both the voters and the press tend to dismiss you.”

Cynthia Strong is a member of the South Dakota Peace and Justice Committee, a former campaign worker for McGovern and now she runs Agran’s statewide campaign from her home in Rapid City. She said she first saw Agran on the “MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour” and was impressed enough to call and offer her support.

“People have a great deal of respect for him because he was the chair of the McGovern exploratory committee and that’s something they can immediately relate to,” Strong said. “He has been extremely well received. I really see Larry as being a new, young fresh face and somebody who has been able to put all of this into a new context.”