INTO THE Political MEAT GRINDER : A Wilson Nightmare

The media spin coming out of New Hampshire is nearly unanimous: Patrick J. Buchanan is George Bush’s worst nightmare come true. But if Buchanan’s candidacy spells trouble for the President, it will cause the California GOP sleepless nights, too. The New Hampshire outcome is sure to have a “trickle-down” effect on state politics and policy.

Buchanan’s unexpectedly strong showing will escalate the civil war already raging in the state Republican Party. It will energize right-wingers who are wrestling with Gov. Pete Wilson and his moderate allies for the heart and soul of their party. GOP conservatives, who were losing clout and whose agenda was moving into the political shadows, have a cause again, a champion to rally them and a reason to organize and vote.

Buchanan could do well in California, because he embodies the conservative profile of the high-propensity California Republican primary voter. This is not good news for Wilson, his policy agenda, moderate GOP candidates or for the state’s financial woes.

Remember Wilson’s cunningly crafted governmental strategy? Recreate the Legislature in your own image, the formula goes, and you shall control policy--not to mention that it couldn’t hurt your national profile.

So Wilson bet that the state Supreme Court’s reapportionment plan would deliver legislative districts making it easier for GOP moderates like him to populate the State Capitol. He won that bet.

Wilson also bet on Proposition 140 to ensure competitive races by nudging, or forcing, entrenched legislative incumbents out of office by limiting terms. He won again.

Then he bet that GOP moderates would have a good chance to win nominations in redrawn districts and wage strong general-election campaigns against Democrats. He began to recruit candidates who would play his game.

What he didn’t bet on was the refusal of conservative legislators and their allies to go along.

Angered by Wilson’s tax-raising antics and his less-than-pure social policies, GOP conservatives started recruiting their own candidates to go up against Wilson’s in some party primaries.

Enter the Buchanan candidacy. If conservatives who might have skipped the presidential primary in June come out to vote for Buchanan, they’ll likely vote in other state races. As a result, Wilson could find himself with a flock of Republican legislative nominees he personally can’t stand--let alone control. Come November, he could face a Legislature of conservative Republicans and opposition Democrats who owe him nothing. It’s possible that Wilson might never again see a two-thirds vote to pass his budget.

So much for legislative strategy.

And so much for reasoned public policy. The divisive rhetoric of Buchanan’s “middle-class revolution” will infuse campaigns throughout the state. Anti-tax sentiment will redirect the budget debate in Sacramento and strengthen the policy hand of welfare-bashers and spending Scrooges in both parties.

That could escalate the warfare among liberal Democrats and their traditional constituencies--a small piece of good news for Republicans. But that could also aggravate the policy gridlock that has hobbled the Legislature.

More conservatives voting in the June primary could thwart at least one attempt to deal with the state’s current fiscal crisis. Wilson recently called on the Legislature to place a $1.9-billion school bond issue on the ballot. Democratic lawmakers want to propose even more bonds, in hopes of creating public-works jobs and giving California’s staggering economy a boost. Assuming the governor and Legislature can agree on what should make it onto the June ballot--always a risky assumption--a high conservative turnout, coupled with Buchanan’s anti-government, anti-tax message, could doom any proposal to pay for badly needed state projects.

Buchanan supporters could also imperil the candidacies of GOP moderates for California’s two U.S. Senate seats. Incumbent Sen. John Seymour can likely withstand the conservative challenge of Rep. William E. Dannemeyer of Fullerton. But an already nasty campaign will become more divisive and expensive. Seymour, like Bush in New Hampshire, could emerge from his primary badly bruised.

Television commentator Bruce Herschensohn has been locked in a tight race with moderate Rep. Tom Campbell of Palo Alto for the Republican nomination for the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Alan Cranston. Campbell is far ahead of Herschensohn in fund raising, but if Buchanan stirs up the GOP activists, Herschensohn’s campaign could get a big lift. And what happens if Sonny Bono goes with Buchanan?

Buchanan’s challenge may thus put pressure on California Republican candidates to move right. The New Hampshire Democratic results, with moderates outdistancing traditional liberals, also sent a message to state Democrats: Trim those liberal sails.

In California politics, a move to the right for Republicans means a move away from the political center. A move to the right for Democrats means a move toward the political center. And it’s at the center where California’s general electorate tends to shop for its leaders.

The Golden State, relegated to footnote status in the presidential nominating process because of its late-date primary, suddenly seems to have lost its wallflower role.

No more peace and quiet. Watch out, people.

California, here they come!