Bush Learns too Late Right Can Go Elsewhere

Patrick J. Buchanan’s New Hampshire results come from the same kind of courage that fueled the charge of Tennyson’s Light Brigade into the valley of Death. It takes guts to take on an incumbent President in your own party. Not just the candidate, but every operative in the candidate’s campaign has to have the guts to face political oblivion for four years if the charge fails. Courage of conviction explains everything--why Buchanan surged, why he may stay in the race all the way to the Republican Convention and why incumbents should not alienate their political base.

Let me explain, starting with the surge. Buchanan will get a lot more media momentum out of New Hampshire than his final 37% tally merited. On primary day, Buchanan’s supporters voted early. Conviction meant they were more highly motivated than George Bush’s status-quo voters. Early exit polls by news organizations showed the race to be a dead heat at midday. This put the press into a horse-race psychology, convincing them that Buchanan’s showing was big news. In politics, perception is reality--and the Buchanan brigades have now shaped reality to conform to their own zeal.

Buchanan has a donor base of more than 50,000 contributors. As a result of his press coverage in New Hampshire, they’ll open their pocketbooks again. His New Hampshire media boost may be worth $3 million to $5 million in contributions, along with matching funds. Buchanan doesn’t have to play by conventional GOP rules or worry about winning the nomination in 1992. His goal is to set the stage for 1996. He is free to run a slash-and-burn campaign all the way through California.

Georgia, on March 3, is his next target of opportunity. Like New Hampshire, the state’s economy is suffering. New Hampshire ranks 46th in job growth. Georgia is at the bottom. More important, the Georgia GOP is rent with internal divisions. In 1988, conservatives were virtually shut out of the state party’s convention. Experienced organizers from the 1976, 1980 and 1984 campaigns may be attracted to Buchanan’s bandwagon as a protest against the state party hierarchy.

For years, it has been a moderate Republican mantra on policy and political decisions that the party’s conservative wing can be alienated, because it has no other place to go in an election year. Now the mantra has been exposed as inducing nothing more than self-hypnosis. The alienation of conservatives has given rise to Buchanan’s candidacy. Georgia will be the test of whether Buchanan’s campaign can capitalize on its media momentum, build an organization from disaffected conservatives and score a victory.

Buchanan needs a victory to be viable. Without one, the funds will slowly dwindle and the organization will become skeletal in the late primaries. His brigades will look like Washington’s troops in the winter at Valley Forge. Yet they’re unlikely to quit. Like the Light Brigade, they’ll keep up their charge because they think it’s the right thing to do.

It’s important to keep New Hampshire in perspective. Buchanan outspent Bush on television advertising by about 5-1 in the final two weeks of the campaign. His message was plain and simple. Buchanan promised to go to Washington and fight for jobs. They were a stark contrast to convoluted Bush ads, which tried to channel angry votes against congressional Democrats. The conservative newspaper, the Manchester Union Leader, acted like the unofficial press office of the Buchanan campaign.

There are few other states where Buchanan can count on the free media like New Hampshire. And it’s unlikely the Bush campaign will allow itself to be outspent again. With the likely return of Roger Ailes to the fold, the television spots will improve. Bush’s team won’t make the same mistakes twice.

But new mistakes are possible. The White House will be tempted to try and blow Pat away with a negative campaign. But in the process they may shoot themselves in the foot. The President needs Buchanan’s voters in November. It’s critical for Bush that his victory over Buchanan not be Pyrrhic.

Instead, the 1992 Bush campaign needs to take a page from the 1988 Bush campaign. Bush beat his conservative challengers in 1988 by flanking them on the right. That’s what he now needs to do to recapture the alienated conservative GOP base that Buchanan has claimed.

Ultimately, peace will have to be made within the party. Watch for the mediator to be Ronald Reagan. As a veteran of the ’76 Ford challenge, no one can speak with more authority about the danger to the GOP if the moderate-conservative rift isn’t healed at the convention.

Buchanan’s brigades are unlikely to storm the citadel in 1992. The trick is to harness their charge against the Democrats--not to destroy them in a withering Republican cross-fire.