End of the Horror Show? : Accord could still unravel as more refugees are sent back

There’s some hope that Haiti’s crisis can soon be resolved, if recent events in Washington are any indication.

On Monday Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, ousted by a military coup in September, signed an agreement with civilian representatives of the interim Haitian government that would allow him to return from exile in exchange for amnesty for the coup plotters. The agreement is to be guaranteed by the Organization of American States, which has imposed a trade embargo on Haiti to pressure the current Port-au-Prince regime to allow Aristide’s return. As a further inducement, the United States pledged financial aid to Haiti once Aristide is back.

That’s all to the good, but don’t forget that a previous effort by Haitian civilians to end the crisis floundered when the military would not agree to Aristide’s return. That can happen again, because the army remains the single most powerful faction in Haiti. It is unlikely there can be any real reform in that poor nation until its military thugs are reined in. But that is a long-range problem probably best dealt with after civilian government is restored and both the OAS and U.S. officials again have some leverage in Port-au-Prince.

In the meantime, the Bush Administration will surely use this tentative political accord, and the legal green light that the U.S. Supreme Court gave Monday to the repatriation of Haitian refugees, to speed up the process of returning many desperate, frightened people to their homeland.

That could prove to be a serious mistake, given the propensity of Haiti’s political elite to jealously guard their power, even against a democratically elected president. Better to wait and see what now happens in Haiti, and allow Haitian exiles to remain in this country in the meantime as temporary refugees. Despite appearances, this crisis may not yet be over.